It’s Monday, Feb. 12.
The day after Super Bowl 58.
The 2023 NFL season is over.
Long live the 2023 NFL season.
Since football is king, and since I’m something of a Belichickian disciple at heart — “No days off! No days off!” — I figure now is the perfect time to release my first official mock of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Over the past five years, I’ve been a top-10 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest, and historically I’ve done well betting on the draft.
- 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
- 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
- 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
- 2022: 70-50 (+29.3 units)
- 2023: 40-68 (+7.7 units)
Last year was a weird one. I’ve generally been best with the unsexy draft bets. For example: Over/under 4.5 Round 1 WRs, Random Player over/under 3.5, etc.
But last year sportsbooks didn’t post many of those types of bets until April — aka “after March Madness” — so I pivoted to more of the volatile longshots, which historically I’ve had less success with.
I imagine books will once again slow-roll NFL draft props this year. Sadly. And that means I’ll need to get better at identifying profitable longshots if I’m to return to the money-printing halcyon days of 2020-22.
Until then, here’s my first official 2024 NFL mock, followed by some general notes and a list of borderline players whom I considered for Round 1. As we get closer to the draft, future versions of my mock will have more commentary.
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2024 NFL Mock Draft
- 1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)
- 1.02 (Commanders): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)
- 1.03 (Patriots): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)
- 1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)
- 1.05 (Chargers): TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)
- 1.06 (Giants): WR Malik Nabers (LSU)
- 1.07 (Titans): OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)
- 1.08 (Falcons): EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)
- 1.09 (Bears): EDGE Laiatu Latu (UCLA)
- 1.10 (Jets): OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
- 1.11 (Vikings): EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State)
- 1.12 (Broncos): QB Bo Nix (Oregon)
- 1.13 (Raiders): OT J.C. Latham (Alabama)
- 1.14 (Saints): OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
- 1.15 (Colts): CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
- 1.16 (Seahawks): OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)
- 1.17 (Jaguars): CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
- 1.18 (Bengals): OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
- 1.19 (Rams): OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)
- 1.20 (Steelers): CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
- 1.21 (Dolphins): WR Rome Odunze (Washington)
- 1.22 (Eagles): CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)
- 1.23 (Texans): EDGE Chop Robinson (Penn State)
- 1.24 (Cowboys): OT Graham Barton (Duke)
- 1.25 (Packers): CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)
- 1.26 (Buccaneers): EDGE Bralen Trice (Washington)
- 1.27 (Cardinals): DT Byron Murphy (Texas)
- 1.28 (Bills): WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
- 1.29 (Lions): CB Ennis Rakestraw (Missouri)
- 1.30 (Ravens): DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
- 1.31 (49ers): OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)
- 1.32 (Chiefs): WR Keon Coleman (Florida State)
QB Caleb Williams
Any mock that doesn’t have Williams No. 1 overall is trying too hard. He could fall down the board — anything can happen in the NFL draft — but I haven’t seen any analysis indicating that Maye and Daniels are preferable prospects.
I didn’t start my 2024 draft analysis until just recently, but I wish I’d bet on Williams No. 1 months ago when his odds were much more attractive.
Even so, I think he’s still bettable to be the first selection at -950 (DraftKings).
Check out our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker for all my bets.
QBs Drake Maye vs. Jayden Daniels
It’s not a slam dunk that Maye goes ahead of Daniels. At this early point, I prefer Daniels and have him ranked higher in my way-too-early 2024 fantasy top 150 rankings.
But I think Maye currently has the higher draft stock.
WR Marvin Harrison
A few notes.
First, I’m not going to refer to him in writing as “Marvin Harrison Jr.” unless I also mention his father. From now on, whenever I mention a guy named “Marvin Harrison” in a piece involving football players, please assume I’m talking about the guy who currently plays football.
Second, it’s not uncommon to see him mocked as high as No. 3 to the Patriots. In my opinion, he’s closer to Maye and Daniels in draft hype than they are to Williams. It’s almost unthinkable for him to fall out of the top five.
Third, I’m yet to see any non-QB selected higher than Harrison in any mock. I like him to be the top non-QB selected (-475, DraftKings).
TE Brock Bowers
I’d be somewhat surprised to see him fall out of the top 10, and he could go as early as No. 5 to the Chargers, who could certainly use a TE upgrade.
EDGE Dallas Turner
I suspect that the Falcons will address the QB position via trade or free agency, and I’m skeptical about any of the other rookie QBs in the top 10, so they take the top defender in the class at No. 8.
EDGE Laiatu Latu
I can envision the Bears taking a WR at No. 9 to pair with Williams, but they might not need to do so given that they already have WR D.J. Moore, who had a great first year with the team in 2023.
Plus, HC Matt Eberflus is a defensive playcaller and might want a player for his side of the ball.
OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu
The Jets need to get someone to protect QB Aaron Rodgers.
QB Bo Nix
The Broncos can’t go into 2024 with QB Jarrett Stidham as the starter, can they?
OT Tyler Guyton
In the top 20, I have seven OTs (Guyton is No. 7). This is a deep OT class.
WR Rome Odunze
In most drafts, there’s at least one notable player who falls down the board far past the point of what seems reasonable, often in part because teams pass on him to address positions of need.
I can see how Odunze might be that guy this year — and I can also imagine the Dolphins snapping him up to form an unrecoverable pass-catching trio with WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
WR Brian Thomas
The Bills need to get QB Josh Allen more help, and Thomas has long-term potential as a No. 1 WR.
CB Ennis Rakestraw
The Lions should’ve drafted a corner in Round 1 last year, and they should probably draft multiple defensive backs in the top 100 this year.
WR Keon Coleman
After the Chiefs underwhelmed on offense for much of 2023, it makes sense for them to get a potential No. 1 WR for QB Patrick Mahomes.
RBs & LBs
You’ll notice that this mock doesn’t have any RBs or LBs. It’s simply not a great year for the positions.
Borderline Prospects
These are the players I currently view as residing on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.
- QBs J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) & Michael Penix (Washington)
- WRs Troy Franklin (Oregon), Xavier Legette (South Carolina) & Xavier Worthy (Texas)
- OT Kingsley Suamatia (Brigham Young)
- C Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon)
- EDGEs Chris Braswell (Alabama) & Darius Robinson (Missouri)
- DT Kris Jenkins (Michigan)
- CB Kamari Lassiter (Georgia)
- S Kamren Kinchens (Miami - FL)
