Free agency has come and gone, so now feels like a good time to publish a new 2024 NFL mock draft.
Here are my previous versions:
- Version 1 (Feb. 2023): Post-Super Bowl
- Version 2 (Feb. 2023): Pre-Combine
- Version 3 (Mar. 2023): Post-Combine
Over the past five years I’ve been a top-10 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest, and historically I’ve done well betting on the draft.
- 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
- 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
- 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
- 2022: 70-50 (+29.3 units)
- 2023: 40-68 (+7.7 units)
Here’s my updated mock.
2024 NFL Mock Draft
- 1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)
- 1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)
- 1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)
- 1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)
- 1.05 (Vikings): QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
- 1.06 (Giants): WR Malik Nabers (LSU)
- 1.07 (Titans): OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)
- 1.08 (Falcons): EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)
- 1.09 (Bears): WR Rome Odunze (Washington)
- 1.10 (Jets): TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)
- 1.11 (Chargers): OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
- 1.12 (Broncos): QB Bo Nix (Oregon)
- 1.13 (Raiders): OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
- 1.14 (Saints): OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)
- 1.15 (Colts): CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)
- 1.16 (Seahawks): OT J.C. Latham (Alabama)
- 1.17 (Jaguars): CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
- 1.18 (Bengals): OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
- 1.19 (Rams): EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State)
- 1.20 (Steelers): C Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon)
- 1.21 (Dolphins): DT Byron Murphy (Texas)
- 1.22 (Eagles): CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
- 1.23 (Chargers): WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
- 1.24 (Cowboys): OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)
- 1.25 (Packers): CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)
- 1.26 (Buccaneers): EDGE Laiatu Latu (UCLA)
- 1.27 (Cardinals): DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
- 1.28 (Bills): WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
- 1.29 (Lions): EDGE Chop Robinson (Penn State)
- 1.30 (Ravens): OT Graham Barton (Duke)
- 1.31 (49ers): OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)
- 1.32 (Chiefs): WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
Risers and Fallers - 2024 Mock Draft
Here are players I’ve moved into and out of Round 1 since the previous version.
- Players Into Round 1: QB Bo Nix (Oregon), WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
- Players Out of Round 1: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama), EDGE Darius Robinson (Missouri)
1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)
Any mock that doesn’t have Williams No. 1 overall is trying too hard. He goes No. 1 in 100% of the mocks I’ve surveyed over the past two months.
Especially with the Bears having traded QB Justin Fields to the Steelers for a 2025 Day 3 pick, they will take a passer at the top of the draft, and Williams is the guy.
The best price I see for Williams No. 1 is at -4000 (DraftKings). For some price-shopping perspective, at another book he’s already as high as -8000 (FanDuel).
I think this number should be at least -10000 … and probably more like -100000.
I’m not saying you should bet this. What I’m saying is that you hopefully bet this months ago. Williams No. 1 is as close to a lock as anything in the sports space gets. It’s not 100% — but it might be.
I originally bet Williams No. 1 at -900 and logged it in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
Pick via Panthers.
1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)
QB J.J. McCarthy has recently gotten some steam at No. 2, but I’m still on Daniels as the deserved frontrunner.
Ben Standig of The Athletic — a sharp mock drafter and ace beat reporter for the Commanders — has Daniels at No. 2.
Mike Sando (also of The Athletic) surveyed six NFL executives during and after the combine: Five of them expected Daniels to go to Washington.
In his first show after the combine, Rich Eisen of NFL Network highlighted the five juiciest rumors he heard in Indianapolis — and one of them was that Daniels is the QB2 in this class.
The best price I see for Daniels No. 2 is -145 (FanDuel), and I still think there’s value at that number.
At -145, he has a 59.2% implied probability to go No. 2 (per our Fantasy Life Betting Odds Calculator). In 68% of the recent sharp mocks I’ve perused, he goes No. 2.
I bet Daniels No. 2 at +155.
1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)
At this point, I’m not convinced that Maye goes ahead of WR Marvin Harrison or QB J.J. McCarthy.
But based on the numbers it’s not as if there’s much analytically “wrong” with him. He had a 9.0 AY/A in college with 302-1,209-16 rushing. He has sufficient size (6-foot-4 and 223 pounds). With two years of starting experience and good production, he’s not a one-year wonder. And he’s not geriatric (he’ll be 22 years old as a rookie).
Even so, his draft stock has dropped since the season ended, and now he’s just -110 (BetMGM) to go No. 3. I doubt I’ll bet that, but this feels like the right spot for him.
1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)
There are two parts of this pick: One is the Cardinals, and the other is Harrison.
Given that the Cardinals are still in a rebuilding mode and displayed a willingness in last year’s draft to trade down, many mock drafters are projecting that the Vikings will trade Nos. 11 and 23 (and maybe more?) to the Cardinals for No. 4 in order to draft McCarthy.
I can see that happening.
But for now I’m going to rely on Matthew Berry, who heard this bit of gossip at the combine: “If Harrison is there at 4 when the Cardinals pick, they are absolutely taking him.”
And that gets me to the second part of this pick: Harrison.
I know that there’s some growing hype around WR Malik Nabers, who had a great pro day (4.35-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 199 pounds). He has an outside chance to overtake Harrison, who hasn’t participated at all in the pre-draft process.
But Harrison is still -500 (DraftKings) to be the first non-QB selected (I bet him at -475). He’s still -550 (FanDuel) to be the first WR selected.
In not one sharp draft I’ve seen in the past month has a non-QB or any WR gone ahead of him.
We’ll see how the mocks and league reports change in the aftermath of Nabers’ pro day — but I like Harrison to go off the board after the early run on QBs, and right now I tentatively expect the Cardinals to stay put at No. 4 and take the guy who might be the top overall player in the class.
1.05 (Vikings): QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
Projected trade: Vikings get 1.05, Chargers get 1.11 and 1.23.
I hate projecting trades, and I hate mocks that project trades.
But the Vikings clearly are in the market to move up the board after acquiring No. 23 from the Texans, and the Chargers are likely to be willing trade partners, given that they have a new front office looking to stock up on assets.
So here we are: The Vikings have the No. 5 pick, they need a new passer now that QB Kirk Cousins is gone, and McCarthy is the obvious option with all the other top-tier candidates off the board.
With his strong 2023 campaign (72.3% completion rate, 9.8 AY/A), checks-the-box size (6-foot-2 and 219 pounds), elite agility (6.82-second three-cone drill) and babyface age (21 years old), McCarthy has underappreciated long-term upside.
The McCarthy-Vikings pairing has appeared in 72% of sharp mocks over the past month. If they don’t take him, I expect it will be because he went in the top three or another team outmaneuvered them in the market and jumped up to Nos. 4 or 5 to get him.
1.06 (Giants): WR Malik Nabers (LSU)
Shortly after the combine, Rome Odunze was challenging to be the No. 2 WR in the class, but Nabers has solidified his spot as a top-two pass catcher with his pro day.
He’ll be 21 years old for the entirety of his rookie campaign, he balled out with 89-1,569-14 receiving last season, and the Giants need pass-catching assistance.
In all but one recent draft I’ve seen the Giants have selected a WR.
1.07 (Titans): OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)
RT Chris Hubbard is a free agent, and the Titans need to upgrade the OL.
Alt is -250 (FanDuel) to be the No. 1 OL and is the first non-skill player drafted in almost every mock.
1.08 (Falcons): EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)
After blazing a position-best 4.46-second 40-yard dash at the combine at 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds, Turner is -190 (DraftKings) to be the No. 1 defender selected in the class. (I bet him at -115.)
He has been the first defender off the board in 84% of the recent mocks I’ve surveyed and is often the only one to go in the top 10.
1.09 (Bears): WR Rome Odunze (Washington)
With the recent acquisition of veteran WR Keenan Allen, the Bears don’t have a pressing need at the position … but if they selected Odunze, then they would have one of the league’s best pass-catching units with Allen, Odunze, WR D.J. Moore, TE Cole Kmet and RB D’Andre Swift.
Given the investment the Bears are making in Williams at No. 1, it makes sense to give their young passer as much support as they can, and the addition of Odunze will put Williams in the best position possible to succeed.
Odunze had an awesome combine, exhibiting good speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash) and notable agility (6.88-second three-cone drill) with old-school prototypical size (6-foot-3 and 212 pounds).
In a less-stacked class, Odunze would have a good chance to be the No. 1 WR. He represents great value for the Bears at No. 9.
1.10 (Jets): TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)
Oh, baby.
For months, it has been a struggle to find a great landing spot for Bowers.
But the Jets at No. 10 now look like a strong candidate.
Before free agency, almost every mock draft went OL at No. 10, but then the Jets signed LT Tyron Smith and LG John Simpson, traded for RT Morgan Moses and cut TE C.J. Uzomah.
Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) runs after a catch during the third quarter as Auburn Tigers take on Georgia Bulldogs at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023.
With a rebuilt OL, the Jets should be able to protect QB Aaron Rodgers — but they could use a starting-caliber TE (with all apologies to Tyler Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert), and Bowers more than fits that description.
If the Jets are lucky, Bowers could be an impact playmaker for them as a rookie.
1.11 (Chargers): OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
If the Chargers stay at No. 5, there’s a decent chance they’ll take either the top OL on the board or the No. 2 WR.
In this mock, they trade down, still get the No. 1 OL in Daniel Jeremiah’s most recent top 50, and add the No. 23 pick, which they can use on a top-five WR in a class loaded at the position.
Fuaga played RT in college and is a natural bookend with Pro Bowl LT Rashawn Slater.
I love this scenario for the Chargers.
While they don’t technically need an OT, the team has a potential out with RT Trey Pipkins after 2024, and he’s an average-at-best lineman. His presence shouldn’t preclude the team from upgrading the OL.
Pick via Vikings (projected trade).
1.12 (Broncos): QB Bo Nix (Oregon)
The Broncos can’t possibly go into the season with … checks notes … QB Jarrett Stidham as their Week 1 starter, right?
RIGHT!!!???
Nix has a half decade of high-end starting experience in college (Auburn, then Oregon), and last year he was No. 2 in the nation — just behind Daniels — with an 11.2 AY/A on the strength of 4,508 yards and 45 TDs passing to just three INTs.
The Broncos should be desperate to find a passer, and Nix is a viable candidate to go in Round 1.
1.13 (Raiders): OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
The Raiders lost RT Jermaine Eluemunor in free agency, and LT Kolton Miller has just two years left on his contract.
Fashanu has the ability to start right away at RT and slide over to the blind side later in his career if Miller eventually leaves.
1.14 (Saints): OT Troy Fautanu (Washington)
A three-year starter, Fautanu was the top dog on the unit that won the 2023 Joe Moore Award, given annually to the top OL in college football.
With his outside/inside flexibility, Fautanu should be a plug-and-play Week 1 NFL contributor. He has a chance to challenge LT Trevor Penning, and he could be an immediate fill-in for RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee), whose future is uncertain due to long-term injury concerns.
1.15 (Colts): CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)
For the Colts, perimeter CBs JuJu Brents and Dallis Flowers are unproven. They could use another body on the outside.
Mitchell was a combine winner with his elite speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 195 pounds), and he’s -155 (DraftKings) to be the No. 1 CB.
1.16 (Seahawks): OT J.C. Latham (Alabama)
Latham played outside in college, but he could kick inside in the NFL or challenge RT Abraham Lucas for the starting role.
And I think Latham even has NFL LT potential, based on his recruitment pedigree (five stars), experience (two years starting in the SEC), quality of play (four sacks allowed as starter) and age (21 years old).
1.17 (Jaguars): CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
Arnold disappointed at the combine (4.50-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 189 pounds) — but he can fall only so far down the board due to his ball production (five INTs in 2023), overall pedigree (first-team All-American at Alabama) and age (still just 20 years old).
Arnold should immediately upgrade perimeter CB for the Jaguars.
1.18 (Bengals): OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
The Bengals signed RT Trent Brown, but he’s on just a one-year deal. The five-star Mims could start his NFL career inside before eventually kicking out to OT.
1.19 (Rams): EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State)
Verse has an outside shot to be drafted as the No. 1 EDGE thanks to his athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 254 pounds), so he offers good value to the Rams at No. 19.
With the retirement of DT Aaron Donald, the Rams need to fortify their DL, and Verse is probably the best pass rusher available.
1.20 (Steelers): C Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon)
The Steelers released C Mason Cole in February, and Powers-Johnson — the 2023 Rimington Trophy winner and a unanimous first-team All-American — is all but locked into Round 1.
1.21 (Dolphins): DT Byron Murphy (Texas)
In Version 3.0, I had the Raiders taking Murphy at No. 13, but then they signed DT Christian Wilkins away from the Dolphins … so now I have Murphy falling to them at No. 21 as the Wilkins replacement.
Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (90) celebrates sacking Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht (3) during the game at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 8, 2023 in Ames, Iowa.
Murphy impressed at the combine with his athleticism (4.87-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-1 and 297 pounds). Possessing three-down ability and tenacity, he should add much-needed muscle to the Dolphins DL.
1.22 (Eagles): CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)
Wiggins is small (6-foot-1 and 173 pounds) but was the fastest DB at the combine (4.28-second 40-yard dash).
CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry are both on the wrong side of 30, and drafting Wiggins would allow the Eagles to shift CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson back to safety, where he played with the Eagles in 2022 before his one-year sojourn with the Lions.
1.23 (Chargers): WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
With the offseason departures of WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Chargers need to find a pass-catching weapon for QB Justin Herbert, and they’re able to do that at No. 23 — while also drafting OL at No. 11 — thanks to their trade down from No. 5.
With his college production (68-1,177-17 receiving) and athleticism (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds), Thomas has long-term potential as a No. 1 WR.
Pick via Vikings (projected trade).
1.24 (Cowboys): OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)
Franchise LT Tyron Smith is gone, so the Cowboys need an OL bookend.
Guyton has experience on both sides of the line, so he has the potential to keep LG Tyler Smith on the interior or to kick RT Terence Steele to the bench if Smith is able to claim the open LT spot.
1.25 (Packers): CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)
DeJean can man up as an outside corner, but he also has the flexibility to play safety.
In placing DeDean alongside CBs Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes and Keisean Nixon and SS Xavier McKinney, the Packers might have one of the league’s best on-paper secondaries.
1.26 (Buccaneers): EDGE Laiatu Latu (UCLA)
Latu could fall a little down the board due to good-not-great athleticism (4.64-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 259 pounds) and legitimate injury concerns (he medically retired in 2021 because of neck fusion).
But the 2023 Ted Hendricks Award winner and unanimous first-team All-American is probably the most NFL-ready pass rusher in the class (23.5 sacks in final two seasons), and HC Todd Bowles needs more playmakers for his defense.
1.27 (Cardinals): DT Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois)
From the interior of their DL, the Cardinals let starting DTs Jonathan Ledbetter and Kevin Strong walk in free agency.
Newton (a 2023 first-team All-American) has the potential to step in as an immediate replacement.
1.28 (Bills): WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
The Bills need to get QB Josh Allen more help, and Mitchell catapulted himself into real Round 1 consideration with a strong combine (4.34-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds).
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (5) catches the ball for an first down against Kansas State Wildcats cornerback Jacob Parrish (10) in the. First quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, November. 4, 2023, in Austin, Texas.
The Bills are +120 (FanDuel) to select a WR with their first pick. (I bet them at +150.)
1.29 (Lions): EDGE Chop Robinson (Penn State)
The Lions could easily go with a DB here, but they traded for CB Carlton Davis and signed CB Amik Robertson, so I have them adding a pass rusher to partner with EDGEs Aidan Hutchinson and Marcus Davenport, as it’s almost impossible for a team to have too many impact DLs, and the Lions still need help on defense.
Robinson flashed at the combine with his elite athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 254 pounds).
1.30 (Ravens): OT Graham Barton (Duke)
Barton has inside/outside versatility and could start any number of places along the OL for the Ravens, who lost LG John Simpson and RG Kevin Zeitler in free agency and traded away RT Morgan Moses this offseason.
1.31 (49ers): OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)
If the 49ers had a better OL, they might be Super Bowl champions right now.
1.32 (Chiefs): WR Xavier Worthy (Texas)
With his combine-record deep speed (4.21-second 40-yard dash), Worthy feels like a (hopefully much) better version of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, whom the team recently released.
And maybe — if the Chiefs are lucky — Worthy will give them some of the same explosive downfield playmaking ability they had years ago with WR Tyreek Hill.
Even with the addition of WR Marquise Brown, the Chiefs could use one more perimeter receiver (I like Justin Watson, but the team could upgrade), and Brown is on just a one-year deal anyway.
If Worthy is on the board at No. 32 and the Chiefs opt to select some defensive player instead, the internet might riot. They need to get a potential long-term No. 1 WR for QB Patrick Mahomes.
For what it’s worth, I almost went with CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, whom I think belongs in Round 1. But every year there’s a guy who probably should be in the top 32 who slips into Day 2. In this iteration of my mock, that guy is McKinstry.
Borderline Prospects
These are the players I currently view as residing on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.
- QB Michael Penix (Washington)
- WR Ladd McConkey (Georgia)
- OT Kingsley Suamatia (Brigham Young)
- C Zach Frazier (West Virginia)
- EDGE Darius Robinson (Missouri)
- DTs Braden Fiske (Florida State) & Kris Jenkins (Michigan)
- LB Edgerrin Cooper (Texas A&M)
- CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)
