2024 NFL Rookie of the Year Odds and Bets: Expect a big season from Jayden Daniels

Last year’s Rookie of the Year races were contested in wildly different manners. On the offensive side, C.J. Stroud was in control of the race essentially from Day One. That’s not to say there weren’t other great rookies—particularly Puka Nacua—but Stroud turned in one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history.  He racked up 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just five interceptions across 15 games, and when you’re that good at the most important position in football, you’re going to win some awards.

On the other side of the ball, the battle was much more hotly contested. Jalen Carter jumped out of the gates fast, but he and the rest of the Eagles' defense fizzled a bit toward the end of the season. That allowed Will Anderson Jr. to close the gap. He finished with seven sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and 22 quarterback hits, and he snuck past Carter to secure the win at the wire.

Ultimately, it was the second straight year where the same team had both Rookies of the Year, joining Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner for the Jets in 2022.

This year’s draft class is loaded on the offensive side of the ball. Six quarterbacks were drafted in the top half of Round 1, and they’re supplemented by some top-flight receiving prospects. Like with Stroud and Nacua last year, it could take some special production to get in contention for the award this season. Caleb Williams is nearly an even-money favorite, with Jayden Daniels and Marvin Harrison Jr. close behind.

Things are a little murkier on defense. The first defensive player wasn’t drafted until pick No. 15, so there isn’t a true “blue chipper” like we’ve seen in years past. Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu are the favorites, with five other players settling between +1100 and +1500.

Before we dive into the picks, let’s take a look back at some of the previous winners and some potential trends to help identify the best targets.

Last 10 Winners of NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Trends

We’ve seen a solid spread of positions represented in recent years: four quarterbacks, three receivers, and three running backs. However, there has been a shift toward the passing game in recent seasons, with each of the past five winners either throwing or catching the football. The last running back to win Rookie of the Year was Saquon Barkley, and that figures to continue in 2024. No running back was drafted in the first round, and you have to go down to +5000 to find the first running backs on the current oddsboard (Trey Benson and Jonathon Brooks).

Additionally, no tight end has ever won the award. It’s a notoriously difficult position to make an immediate impact, though Sam LaPorta did finish third in OROY voting last year.

In terms of draft capital, the most recent winners have all carried an elite pedigree. Each of the past six winners was drafted in the top 10, and four of those players have gone in the top three. That trend aligns with most of the recent winners being among the favorites to start the year. Only Alvin Kamara and Dak Prescott have been priced at greater than +1300, with Prescott standing out as a clear outlier.

Last 10 Winners of NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year

Defensive Rookie of the Year Betting Trends

Just like at OROY, three positions are typically rewarded on defense: pass rusher, cornerback, and linebacker. The traditional linebacker winning this award is becoming a bit of a rarer commodity, but Darius (Shaq) Leonard managed to do it in 2018. He led the league in both solo and combined tackles, and that’s the kind of performance needed for that type of player to get in the conversation. He also had seven sacks and two interceptions, so he generated some splash plays as well.

This is also another award where draft capital plays a huge part. That’s not a huge shock—the best prospects tend to go earlier in the draft – but we’ve seen even fewer longshots at DROY than on offense. Each of the last five winners has started the year at +1000 or shorter, and virtually all of them were drafted near the top of Round 1.

Odds to Win 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year

Offensive Rookie of the Year Best Bets

Jayden Daniels (+650; FanDuel)

I mentioned Daniels for this award back in early June, and he remains my preferred bet for top offensive rookie. Daniels is top-three draft pick, and will be one of the most explosive runners at his position the second he takes his first regular-season snap.  

Here are some stats from Ian Hartitz’s Player breakdown of Daniels' college career that illustrate the kind of rushing upside he brings to the table.

• In his last four games in the NCAA, Daniels rushed for 11-163-1, 12-234-2, 10-96-2, and 11-120-0
• Daniels' missed tackle rate in college (0.31 per rush attempt) was better than Lamar Jackson (0.25) and Justin Fields (0.24).
• He posted a 28.5% explosive run play rate. 

He’s also done nothing to quell the argument that he might be a better passer than Caleb Williams. 

Grainy training camp clips aside, the gap in odds between Williams (+135; 42.5% implied probability) and Daniels (+650; 13.33% IP) continues to make no sense. Both are QBs who are virtual locks to start Week 1, both are former Heisman winners, and both are on teams projected with the third-best win/loss total in their division. 

QBs have only won OROY four times over the last 10 seasons, but after Stroud won this award last season, three of the last five winners of OROY have now been QBs taken in the top six draft picks. As long as the gap between Daniels and Williams remains high, taking Daniels to win OROY is one of my favorite NFL futures bets for 2024. 

Malik Nabers (+1600; FanDuel)

Much like the gap in odds between the top QBs, the current gap in odds between Nabers (+1600; 5.8% IP) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (+650; 13.33% IP) seems to defy logic. Both men were elite producers in college, were top-10 draft picks, and landed in situations where they won’t be competing with an established WR1 for targets. 

If we’re being objective, Nabers may even have the easier path to becoming an elite producer in his rookie year. Harrison Jr. will be competing for targets with an emerging TE in Trey McBride, a talented outside body in Michael Wilson, and an underrated slot receiver in Greg Dortch. 

Meanwhile, the Giants' receiver room has a jar full of misfits and outcasts, no established pass-catching TE, and no WR who earned more than 80 targets last season. 

Nabers is also dripping with potential. He’s fast (4.35 40-yard-dash), but it’s what he can do with the ball in his hands that sets him apart. The No. 6 overall pick forced 30 missed tackles last season and led all of college football in explosive plays with 34 catches of 20 yards or more. If he gets true WR1 treatment, even the most bullish projections on Nabers may be too low. 

WRs have won this award in two of the last three seasons, and both (Garrett Wilson and Ja’Marr Chase) were also top-10 draft picks who went off shorter than +1,600 for OROY. In Chase’s case, he overcame a first-overall QB in Trevor Lawrence, who went off as short as +235, to win the award. 

If the top two QBs falter, I think voters will have a hard time ignoring Nabers, who has the clearest path of all rookie WRs to posting a monster season. 

Drake Maye (+2500; DraftKings)

Since Geoff highlighted a couple of the favorites—two guys I think are excellent values at their current numbers—I’m going to go a bit further down the board.

I’m kind of shocked that Maye is available at +2500. Is he an elite quarterback prospect? Maybe not, but he was drafted No. 3 overall and should start immediately as a rookie. The same can’t be said for guys like J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix, who could open the year as backups.

Here’s the big secret: We’re not nearly as good at identifying elite QB prospects as we’d like to think. Justin Herbert was not expected to be a star out of the gates. The Bills were mocked for drafting Josh Allen, who couldn’t complete more than 50% of his passes at Wyoming. Just last year, we saw the Panthers select Bryce Young before Stroud.

To be fair, the early reports on Maye are concerning. But Maye wouldn’t be the first rookie to struggle early and overcome it. Remember when we all thought that Chase couldn’t catch an NFL football?

Ultimately, I’m banking on the draft position to carry the weight here. The No. 3 pick in the draft is going to get lots of chances, and if the top two quarterbacks disappoint, it could open the door for Maye to sneak in.

-LaMarca

Xavier Worthy (+2500; DraftKings)

Can I interest you in a receiver playing with the best quarterback in football? Worthy has one thing that should strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses: pure, unadulterated speed. He blazed a 4.21 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, and pairing that guy with Patrick Mahomes should keep defensive coordinators up at night.

We’ve already seen the two hook up on a few deep balls during training camp:

The Chiefs have been missing the deep ball ever since losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, but it should be back with Worthy and Hollywood Brown in tow this season. I’m betting on a least a couple of long touchdowns for Worthy in his rookie season, which could be enough to put him in contention.

-LaMarca

Odds to Win 2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year

Defensive Rookie of the Year Best Bets

Laiatu Latu (+550; DraftKings)

I thought the Colts struck gold when Latu fell to them in the draft. He looks like the best pass rusher of this year’s rookie group by a longshot and likely only fell because of some past medical concerns. 

The stats don’t lie, though. Latu led the nation in tackles for loss per game (1.8) in 2023 and ranked fourth nationally in sacks per game (1.08). He may lack pure power, but his speed has already impressed at camp. 

Latu was projected as a reserve/backup to start the season simply because of the Colts' stout defensive line, but that changed when starting defensive end Samson Ebukam was lost for the season last week with a torn Achilles. Ebukam led the Colts with 9.5 sacks last season, and his loss means the team will be relying on Latu to produce from the get-go. 

Latu has already pulled even at some sportsbooks for DROY with Turner, but now that Latu’s path is clear, he’s got the better chance to lead all rookies in sacks—and potentially his team. 

Sacks are an easy-to-track stat for defensive players and are also easy to present to the public. Defensive linemen have won this award six of the last 11 years, and they’ve each tallied at least seven sacks:

• Aaron Donald (2014)—9 sacks
• Joey Bosa (2016)—10.5 sacks
• Nick Bosa (2019)—13 sacks
• Chase Young (2020)—7.5 sacks
• Micah Parsons (2021)—9 sacks
• Will Anderson Jr. (2023)—7 sacks

As long as Latu is second in odds to Turner, I think he’s a good player to jump on before this year’s regular season gets underway.

Jared Verse (+1100; DraftKings)

I’m honestly not sure why Verse is priced more than double that of Turner and Latu. All three players have similar draft capital invested, but Verse is arguably in the best situation. The Vikings and Colts have both built up a stable of pass-rushers, so Tuner and Latu should see fewer snaps than Verse overall.

Verse had exactly nine sacks in each of his two collegiate seasons, and he was a strong producer in the run game as well. The Rams sorely need his production as a rookie, with the team ranking merely 24th in sacks per game.

-LaMarca

Payton Wilson (+3500; FanDuel)

If one of the top pass-rushers isn’t going to win this award, I could see it going to a guy like Wilson. He was one of the best defensive players in college football last year, taking home the Dick Butkus and Chuck Bednarik awards last year. He slipped to the third round of the draft because of medical concerns, but he had the talent to be a first-round pick.

He steps into an elite situation with the Steelers, who already boast one of the top defenses in football. He’ll play next to Patrick Queen and behind stud pass-rushers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, so all he’ll have to do is rack up tackles. Wilson has reportedly impressed to start training camp, so +3500 seems a bit too long to me.

-LaMarca

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