The 2024 NFL schedule release took place on Wednesday, and it’s a time of great fun for NFL social media teams. They can plan a humorous video around their upcoming opponents, giving fans a tiny sip to quench their thirst for professional football.
That said, the schedule release is far more important than just an opportunity to make a Sims-inspired video or make fun of opposing franchises. Who you play – and when you play them – has a massive impact on how your season will ultimately go. It matters for fantasy purposes, and it matters for betting as well.
Just look at last season.
According to Sharp Football, among the 15 teams with the easiest projected schedules, 11 finished with winning records. All seven teams with a Vegas win total of at least 8.5 and an easier-than-average schedule finished above .500 (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers).
On the flip side, among the 15 teams with the hardest projected schedules, only five finished above .500. Those teams included the Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Cowboys, so unless you’re a truly elite team, it’s very difficult to overcome a tough schedule.
Now that the 2024 schedule has been released, let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers for the upcoming season as well as my best bets based on how the NFL schedule release played out.
Winners
Philadelphia Eagles
By my estimation, no team sees a bigger upgrade after the schedule release than the Eagles.
For starters, they have the ninth-easiest strength of schedule based on opponent win totals, which is the clear top mark in the division. Their biggest rivals – the Cowboys – check in at No. 22 after playing the third-easiest schedule last year. Overall, the Cowboys have the second-largest increase in schedule difficulty for 2024, so that’s a clear edge for Philly.
Additionally, the Eagles are going to benefit from rest advantages far more than their opponents. They have an aggregate rest edge of +12 days after posting a mark of -6 last season. They’ll have more rest than their opponent on four separate occasions, while they’ll be at a rest disadvantage only once.
The only real negative with the Eagles’ schedule is that they’ll have to play a “home” game in Brazil, which costs them a game in Philly. However, that game is going to come in Week 1, so they’ll have more time than usual to prepare. They also won't play until Monday the following Week, and with the Brazil game playing played on Friday, they’ll have ample time to recover.
The Eagles and Cowboys are both +125 to win the NFC East on BetMGM, but I give the Eagles a clear edge after the schedule release.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are poised for one of the easiest schedules in football for the second straight year. They finished with the second-easiest schedule in 2023, and they’re up to No. 1 in projections for 2024.
The Falcons were unable to take advantage of their good fortune last year, but they couldn’t have gotten worse production at quarterback if they tried. Seriously, I think there were a handful of season-ticket holders who could’ve done a better job than Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.
With Kirk Cousins now in town – and an intriguing backup in Michael Penix Jr. – the Falcons are poised to make a leap in 2024.
In addition to playing in the weak NFC South, they’ll get matchups against the Steelers, Seahawks, Broncos, Chargers, Vikings, Raiders, Giants, and Commanders. That gives them a minimum of 14 winnable games on their schedule, with only matchups vs. the Eagles, Chiefs, and Cowboys looking like significant tests. Two of those three “tough” games will be played in Atlanta, so maybe they can even secure an unexpected upset victory.
As if that wasn’t enough of a boon for the Falcons, the league also gave them a massive upgrade from a rest perspective. They had a -12-day disadvantage compared to their opponents in 2023, but they’ll be +5 in 2024.
Add in the fifth-fewest miles traveled, and there’s nothing not to like with Atlanta for the upcoming season. Their win total sits at Over 9.5 (-130; Caesars), and that looks pretty tasty to me.
New York Jets
The Jets are another team with a fortunate schedule for 2024, checking in with the fourth-easiest overall. That gives them a clear edge over the Bills (No. 23) and Dolphins (No. 8), the two other squads hoping to contend for an AFC East Crown.
However, that still might undersell how easy this schedule is. The Jets open up with a brutal road game vs. the 49ers in Week 1, but after that, they should roll to some easy wins. Their following four games are against the Titans, Patriots, Broncos, and Vikings, the latter three of which could be starting rookie quarterbacks.
Historically, you want to catch rookies at the start of their careers. Even the best rookie QBs tend to struggle out of the gates. Over the past decade, first-year signal callers are just 36-76 straight up in the first five weeks of the season.
As long as Aaron Rodgers can avoid another debilitating injury, this team should be looking at a 4-1 start before hosting the Bills in Week 6. That game will be played in the Meadowlands, so they’ll have a real chance at going 5-1.
That makes their odds of winning the division (+240; BetMGM) and making the playoffs (-130; Caesars) feel light.
Losers
San Francisco 49ers
Does someone in the commissioner's office have a problem with the 49ers? Last year, the 49ers had an apocalyptic rest disadvantage compared to their opponents. They had an aggregate of -20 days compared to their opponents, which feels borderline unfair.
Somehow, the 49ers are in a worse spot in 2024.
Their rest edge checks in at -21 days overall. Only the Colts (-17) and Broncos (-17) are in the same ballpark, and those teams and the Seahawks (-13) are the only other teams at worse than -10. The 49ers will be at a rest disadvantage on eight separate occasions while having the rest edge only twice. That’s borderline criminal.
What did the 49ers do to deserve this kind of treatment in back-to-back years? Was Kyle Shanahan or John Lynch mean to Roger Goodell’s mom or something?
The good news is that the 49ers are talented enough to overcome it. They managed to do so last year at least, winning 12 games and finishing with the top seed in the NFC. The big question is – can they do it again?
Buffalo Bills
I was already planning to sell the Bills in the upcoming season. Their wide receiver room looks barren, with rookie Keon Coleman and journeyman Curtis Samuel attempting to replace Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Josh Allen is good, but I’m not sure he’s good enough to win games purely by himself.
The schedule is merely the cherry on top of the fading Buffalo sundae.
While the Jets and Dolphins both have a favorable set of opponents, they’re going to have to run the gauntlet. Because they finished first in the AFC East last season, they’ll have to play a first-place schedule. That means matchups against the Chiefs and Ravens that the other teams in the division won’t have to navigate. Overall, they’ve had the third-largest increase in schedule difficulty compared to last season.
However, the tougher schedule was partially known in advance. What wasn’t known was the fact that the Bills would have to navigate three straight road games without a bye. They’ll play at the Ravens, at the Texans, and at the Jets in three straight weeks, which is a brutal stretch to navigate.
Typically, playing three straight road games means you’ll at least get the benefit of three straight home contests. The only other teams with three straight road games (without a bye) are the Bears, Browns, and Vikings, and all three will get three straight home games at one point in the year. The Bills are the lone exception.
Add it all up, and there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the Bills. Grabbing the under on 10.5 wins (-120; BetMGM) makes a lot of sense, as does sprinkling on their odds to miss the postseason (+140; Caesars).
Miami Dolphins
We’ve already covered that the Dolphins have an easy schedule, so why have they shown up as losers? Part of it has to do with rest. They’ll have a -8-day discrepancy compared to their opponents, which puts them in significantly worse shape than the Jets and Bills (+5). They’ll be at a rest disadvantage on five separate occasions, which is also the worst mark in the division.
The Dolphins are also going to be busy racking up frequent flyer miles. Only the Chargers are expected to log more sky miles than the Dolphins this season. They’ll have to make two cross-country trips – one to Los Angeles, one to Seattle. They’ll somehow travel fewer miles than the Jets and Patriots, both of which are playing games outside the United States.
The Dolphins also better make sure they rack up wins early. They’ll close the season with six potentially losable games:
- Week 13: at Packers (Thanksgiving)
- Week 14: vs. Jets
- Week 15: at Texans
- Week 16: vs. San Francisco
- Week 17: at Browns
- Week 18: at Jets
I think the best way to play Miami is to look for some live unders after the start of the year. They have a pretty comfy start to the year in terms of opponents, which could cause their win total to become inflated.
