2024 Procore Championship Odds and Picks: Target this 45-1 Outright

The PGA TOUR’s Fall swing starts this week with the Procore Championship, a fall series event previously known as the Fortinet Championship and the Safeway Open.

This is the first event of the fall series but it’s important to note that the players will have several weeks off before the next event, which is technically the Sanderson Farms Open, which takes place Oct 3–6, 2024.

That’s because the President’s Cup is taking place between September 24-29, 2024. I’ll be back for a full betting breakdown of that event as well (and the rest of the fall swing), but just understand that this event is our last “official” PGA stroke play tournament to degen on for at least a couple of weeks. 

Side note: If you’re in need of more bets with Golf in its offseason, be sure to follow our FREE NFL bet tracker which already has plenty of Week 2 bets up to consider. 

Here’s how the last three Procore (formerly Fortinet) Championships have played out.

2021 – Max Homa (+5000) -21

• Homa had a massive weekend, shooting a pair of 65s to catch Maverick McNealy down the stretch, who led for most of this event.
• He gained over 3.0 strokes putting and 3.0 strokes off the tee in the win.
• From a recent form perspective, Homa had had a nice three-week break having played in the BMW, but not the Tour Championship.

2022 – Max Homa (+1200) -16

• Homa’s win in 2022 was eerily simile to his 2021 win. 
• He gained over 3.0 strokes off the tee and putting (just like he did in 2021) and managed a final round 68 to just barely edge out Danny Willett, who had a terrible three-putt on his final hole to give Homa the win in regulation. 
• Homa did play in the TOUR Championship two weeks before his 2022 win but was in great form, having finished T5 at the season-ending event. 

2023 – Sahith Theegala (+1800) -19

• Theegala also played in the first two playoff events but didn’t qualify for East Lake in 2023, so he was coming in fresh and off a three-week layoff. 
• He was far more putter-based in his win, gaining 8.9 strokes putting on the Poa greens (and 5.0 strokes ATG).
• Despite average ball-striking stats, Theegala’s win was dominant as he shot 68 64 to open his event and never really was threatened on Sunday.

The course for the 2024 version of the Procore Championship will be the same one that has hosted this event since 2014, Silverado Country Club. Silverado is a Ben Harmon (1955) designed venue but has seen extensive renovations by both Robert Trent Jones (1966) and Johnny Miller (2011). 

The venue plays as a shorter par 72 at just 7,123 and features Poa/Bentgrass greens, rough, and collars that put it very in line with several other of the West Coast swing courses we see on the PGA TOUR in January and February, like Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach, and Riviera. 

Overall, we have seen a variety of different styles of players have success at Silverado but solid drivers of the ball have benefited from the four shorter par 5’s and the ability to use their driver without much fear of penalty around this tree-lined course. As such, Strokes Gained Off the Tee metrics continue to be one to focus on this week as five of the last six winners have now gained over 1.5 strokes OTT in the week of their win. 

I’ll be going over a few more trends such as west coast performance and corollary courses to watch in the bets below, but before we get there, here are a few more notes about the 2024 Procore Championship to keep in mind.

• It’s a 150+ man field with a cut line (65 players and ties) after Friday.
• There are three players from the USA President’s Cup team in the field this week (Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, and Max Homa) and two from the International side (Corey Conners and Min Woo Lee).
• Despite the name change, this event has been played at Silverado for over a decade so there is plenty of course history to use as a sample size this week.
• This is the first start of the fall series, which makes this a big event for players who are 125-player bubble in the FedEx Cup points race (the top 125 players retain their card after the fall swing). 

Procore Championship Betting Odds

2024 Procore Championship Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

2024 Procore Championship Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play. 

While I have a handful of outright plays I do like playing many of these names in the placing department, or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

For odds, I’ve also used the best options available at the time of writing so you know where to look and what to look for. 

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Min Woo Lee Each Way 1/4 Top-5 (+2500; bet365)

Min Woo Lee may not be coming in with the greatest form, but he’s a player I expect to break through soon and sets up extremely well for this course. A premier driver of the ball, Lee has gained over 2.0 strokes off the tee in five of his last six starts, which includes gaining 4.9 strokes OTT in the first playoff event in Memphis (T22).

His last start on Poa greens is also significant, as it saw him finish second on another short Par 72 in Detroit Golf Club, where he also gained 2.6 strokes off the tee. From a comparison standpoint his game lines up nicely with former winners like Cameron Champ and Max Homa, who themselves are great with the driver but are also elite putters (when in form), another area of the game where Lee also excels.

When it’s all said and done, Lee’s a player I’m perfectly happy to take a piece of on a driver-heavy Par 72, especially in this weaker field at prices of +2500 or better.

Beau Hossler Outright (+4500; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+425; bet365)

Hossler is another player who profiles well for Silverado. Like many past winners at this venue, the American typically gains most of his strokes off the tee and on the greens, ranking out top 40 in both of those areas over the last 40 rounds. Hossler’s also something of a West Coast, POA green, specialist having placed top 10 at both Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines during his career. 

Regardless of his history, the stats certainly indicate that Poa is his preferred putting surface as he ranks 11th in strokes gained putting on Poa greens over the last 24 rounds, and has outgained on this surface significantly over Bermuda for his career.

While he’s never finished better than T16 at this venue, certainly the upside for him looks better on this course than it does on a tighter more approach-driven venue. Having opened his last PGA start with a round of 60 (Sedgefield), the +4500 odds this week look fair enough to play, and backing him in the top 10 finish market alongside is a nice way to try and profit off a player who typically saves his best work for when the TOUR visits this side of the USA.

Longshots and Placing Bets for the 2024 Procore Championship 

Justin Suh Each Way 1/5 Top-8 (+10000; bet365)

• Top 20 (+400; DraftKings) 

Suh is a West Coast native who has had some solid results playing on this side of the USA. The 27-year-old endured a rough 2024 regular season and needs to make up plenty of ground in the fall, but did post good results against weaker fields at this time last season, landing a T4 finish in Mexico and a T10 finish at the Zozo Championship in Japan. The other bit of good news is that Suh did start to play better towards the end of the regular season, making the cut in his final two appearances and posting a T19 at the ISCO Championship. 

Suh’s best asset is his putter which has been outperforming of late, but he’s also been better off the tee of late, gaining strokes OTT in each of his last three starts. Ultimately, Suh’s a player I’d rather be a little early on than late, just given his upside on the greens.

With his top-20 and each-way prices much lower in this field than they were last year this time, it feels like a good time to buy low on the former amateur star.

Nick Hardy Each Way 1/5 Top-8 (+14000; bet365)

• Top 20 (+500; bet365)

Hardy’s a player I have been tracking over the summer and into the early fall. The American has been striking it well for a couple of months now and comes into this event ranked a strong 10th in SG: Approach stats and 21st in SG: Off the Tee stats. 

From a profile perspective, Hardy’s strength off the tee should benefit him on a course like Silverado and he did manage his way to a T31 finish back in 2021, his first time playing the course as a rookie. Obviously, we need Hardy’s putter to show some positive regression to hit the each-way portion of this bet, but given the long odds, that’s a gamble I’m willing to make.

He putted horrifically for most of 2024 but it’s worth noting that each of his top 6 best statistical weeks with the putter came on either bentgrass or poa annua greens. 

Doug Ghim Top 10 (+550; bet365) 

• Top 20 (+250; bet365)

Rather than add another outright pick I figured I'd play it safe and back Doug Ghim in the placing markets this week; a supreme ball-striker whose around-the-green and putting remains a work in progress.

Despite some deficiencies, when Ghim is hitting his irons well he’s typically capable of landing some high finishes, as is evidenced by the 26 top 20 finishes he’s landed on the PGA Tour since the 2020 season. Coming into this week, the American has now gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in three of his last four starts and ranks third in strokes gained approach stats over the last 24 rounds.

Overall, Ghim has performed well at this week’s venue (T14 finish in 2020, T17 in 2023), and has gained strokes putting in two of four career starts at Silverado, making this a solid week to go after him at some bigger odds in the top 10 and 20 markets.

Full Card: 

• Min Woo Lee +2500 EW-5 .5u/.5u  
• Beau Hossler +4500 .35u | Top 10 +425 .65u
• Justin Suh +10000 EW-8 .15/.15u | Top 20 +400 .5u
• Nick Hardy +14000 EW-8 .15/.15u | Top 20 +500 .5u
• Doug Ghim Top 10 +550 .25u | Top 20 +250 .65u