2024 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Breakdown

The 2024 Wells Fargo Championship has become one of the more interesting signature events on the PGA docket this season, not because of who is in attendance, but because of who is not. Both world Number 1 Scottie Scheffler (personal) and World Number 6 Ludvig Aberg (knee) have withdrawn, leaving this event far more open than the past couple of signature/major championship/elite field events we have seen. 

Even with those two players now out, the rest of the contenders will still have to deal with two stout men at the top. Three-time Wells Fargo winner Rory McIlroy is now also the betting favorite (and down to +650 on DraftKings) and coming off a win at the Zurich Classic while last year’s Wells Fargo winner Wyndham Clark (+1600; DraftKings) has already won this season and posted a T2 at THE PLAYERS. 

Still, even with those two behemoths, this event has a more wide-open feel to it than any of the other limited events we have seen to date. The cherry on top, of course, is that with the PGA Championship looming, there is also the potential that a player who gets hot this week will carry that form into Valhalla for the year’s second major. Looking ahead to the PGA Championship odds for some leverage is important and anyone you look to this week, you should also consider investing in next week ahead of time, especially if their PGA odds are significantly bigger than what they are available at for this event. 

Some other quick notes about the Wells Fargo:

• It’s a 70-man field with no cut-line.
• The top two finishers at this year’s Masters have both withdrawn. Scottie Scheffler (personal) and Ludvig Aberg (knee) will both not be in attendance. 
• The prize purse this week is set at $20M. First place will take home $3.6M.
• The event will feature the following former champions: Rickie Fowler (2012), Rory McIlroy x3 (2010, 2015, and 2021), Wyndham Clark (2023), Jason Day (2018), Brian Harman (2017 - Eagle Point), Max Homa x2 (2019 - Quail Hollow and 2022 - TPC Potomac), Lucas Glover (2011). 
• Justin Thomas also won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in 2017. 

The Wells Fargo Championship Betting Odds

With two of the top names in the field having withdrawn, Rory McIlroy now draws event favorite status. McIlroy won as the favorite in 2015 (+350), but that was back when this tournament was a regular event and typically didn’t draw such a strong field. The PGA also wasn’t flooded with as much young talent as it is now. 

Last year’s winner Wyndham Clark has finally been properly rerated and is now shorter in odds than names like Cantlay, Homa, and Thomas. Clark bettors are likely furious, but his results to date suggest +1600 is still a bettable number given that he no longer has Scheffler to deal with at the top of the field. 

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings).

Course Preview for The Wells Fargo Championship

Quail Hollow — Charlotte, NC

Par 71, 7,558 yards; Greens: Bentgrass

• Designer: Tom Fazio 
• Past winners (and odds): 
  • 2023: Wyndham Clark +6000
  • *2022: Max Homa +10000
  • 2021: Rory McIlroy +1800
  • 2019: Max Homa +50000
  • 2018: Jason Day +2000

Quail Hollow is a longer Tom Fazio design that now plays well over 7,500 yards as a standard par 71 (three par 5s and four par 3s). It’s always been a regular on the PGA schedule but was turned into a bigger brute of a course before hosting the PGA Championship, where Fazio completed a full redesign of several holes. 

Apr 18, 2024; Hilton Head, South Carolina, USA; Wyndham Clark plays his shot from the eighth tee during the first round of the RBC Heritage golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The course attacks players from the get-go and begins with one of the toughest holes in the par 4 first that plays as a dogleg par 4 at over 500 yards. It also ends with one of the toughest finishing stretches on the PGA TOUR (the Green Mile), where players are tested with difficult tee shots on two monster par 4s and a long par 3 guarded by water.

Each nine on Quail Hollow contains numerous long par 4s but also includes one shorter par 4 where the players will have a shot at birdie. Holes 8 and 15 were the only two par 4s to play under par at this event last season, and players will need to take advantage as the rest of the par 4s on Quail Hollow offer little respite, with eight of them measuring over 450 yards. 

From a profile perspective, this venue favors good drivers of the ball who can get the ball up high and fast with their long irons. Of the past eight winners at Quail Hollow, none have ranked worse than 36th in driving distance for the week, and winners have tended to gain nearly as many strokes off the tee as they do on approach, although recent winners have tended to vastly outperform on the greens as well. 

While the putting stats of recent winners are worth pointing out, this venue has most in common with other championship venues like Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Copperhead, which all tend to reward the best tee-to-green play. It’s also the fourth longest course played this season—alongside Augusta, Corales, Plantation, Torrey Pines—so while gaining with the putter will be important, a big week off the tee is certainly very key to finding success around Quail. 

Stat notes:

Strokes Gained off the Tee and Driving Distance: The last four winners at Quail Hollow have all gained over 2.4 strokes OTT and been above average in driving distance for the week. 

Strokes Gained Putting: The last four winners have all gained over 6.0 strokes putting. 

Best Bets for The Wells Fargo Championship

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While many are pure outright plays for me, I do like playing many of these names in the placing department as well, and I’ve included placing options for some names if you are constructing a betting card—and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (a win and a place bet, in one) then I’ve included that option where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Patrick Cantlay Outright (+2000; FanDuel)

At the top of the board, I’ll side with Cantlay this week who looked in fine form in his last solo start at the RBC Heritage. Cantlay playing at Hilton Head isn’t a huge signal at this point (he genuinely finishes top five there every season), but the way he accomplished that feat this year was encouraging. He gained over 4.0 strokes on approach for the second time this season and showcased the same kind of precision on his approaches that was on display at Riviera earlier in the season when he led after three rounds. 

It’s been a tough go for Cantlay since that near-miss, and he’s even had to sit back and watch fellow Player Advisory Council member Peter Malnati find the winners' circle. But it’s clear over the last couple of starts that Cantlay’s best isn’t too far off. His short game has taken a nice step up over the last two starts (+3.4 ATG at RBC), and he’ll certainly be one of the players to watch this week with both Scheffler and Aberg now out of the running. 

Apr 20, 2024; Hilton Head, South Carolina, USA; Patrick Cantlay acknowledges the fans after making a putt on the 17th green during the third round of the RBC Heritage golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

From a setup perspective, we’ve seen Cantlay do well at these kinds of championship venues before. He’s won at Muirfield Village twice, he’s taken down two BMW Championships (one on another longer Tom Fazio design—Caves Valley), and he’s had near misses at Riviera and Copperhead. While he’ll have to overcome an off-the-tee disadvantage to McIlroy and Clark, I’m still prone to give the nod to Cantlay, whose odds barely moved on the Aberg withdrawal, and has shown that he may have the sharper all-around-game at the moment than those aforementioned favorites. 

Tony Finau Each-Way 1/5 Top 8 (+3000; bet365)

When you look at Quail Hollow and look at the type of power game that Tony Finau possesses, on paper, the two should be a perfect fit. Quail requires power off the tee to deal with several longer, winding holes and is also an advantageous setup for anyone who has a higher ball flight and can get the ball out of the overseeded Poa rough as fast as possible. 

Finau typically excels in both of those areas. Over the last 24 rounds, he’s first in approach proximity (2nd in proximity from >200 yards), 9th in GIRs gained, and 7th in driving distance. His record at other longer championship golf courses also speaks for itself. He’s got multiple top-10 finishes at Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Augusta National and also has a win at Memorial Park in Houston, which measures in at over 7,400 yards for a par 70. 

Despite the seemingly great fit, Finau has never really excelled at Quail Hollow. He’s played this event seven times in the past and his best finish remains a T16 from back in 2015—before the renovations for the 2017 PGA Championship took place. He does have two top-25 finishes (2018 and 2023) and gained a hefty 6.4-stroke ball-striking for the week at this event last season. All in all, I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a lot better results from Finau in future appearances at this venue, and certainly, this season makes sense as a potential breakthrough point given his solid form and the absence of two big names. 

There is certainly better win equity with some of the better putters ahead of Finau, but at +3000 his odds are the exact same they were at Augusta National a few weeks ago, and not much has changed since then—except that he’s confirmed his good form with another solid start. As such, I’d be more prone to bet him as an each-way or with a top 10 placing bet alongside an outright, then take shorter odds on players who perhaps have better upside on the greens but lack the value we are getting with Big Tony. 

Byeong Hun An Outright (+4500; BetMGM)

• Top 10 +320

As the only man who managed to hit a placing for me last week, when he snuck into the top five with a late rally on Sunday, I’m biased to giving Byeong Hun An one more chance to pay off. An’s playing very solid golf but still prone to the odd mishap on or around the green which slows his momentum. 

Much like Finau, however, he has many of the attributes we want for a golfer taking on Quail Hollow. An’s up to 12th in proximity in this field over the last 24 rounds but has excelled with his longer irons, ranking out 8th in proximity from >200 yards. From an off-the-tee perspective, he ranks first in driving distance (last 24 rounds) and gained a healthy 2.4 strokes OTT at the Byron Nelson. 

His record at longer golf courses this year also sticks out. Fourth at the Sentry, 16th at Riviera, 8th at Bay Hill, and 16th at Augusta are impressive results around those venues that also tend to attract the most elite fields. His record of (not) closing certainly needs to be discussed, but like Finau, his odds this week seem to offer some of the better longer-term value among the bigger names, given he was 28-1 at the Byron and managed a T4 finish. 

It’s Benny An, so, of course, it’s prudent to ladder him with top 10 or top 20 bets (or bet him as an each-way on bet365) so you’re not blowing in the wind butt-naked on Sunday. But, either way, An does stick out to me as a player who could match Wyndham Clark’s success at this event from last year—when he bested an elite field for his first PGA win—and has appealing enough odds for an encore bet from me this week.

The Wells Fargo Championship Placement Bets

Taylor Moore Top 20 (+230; DraftKings)

Moore is a talented player and from a profile perspective, certainly reminds me a little of last year’s winner Wyndham Clark. He’s strong off the tee, has solid enough long irons, and has also shown nice upside with his putter; he’s gained over 4.8 strokes putting six times on the PGA TOUR. 

Moore’s only win came at Copperhead golf course last season, which is another longer Par 71 with Bermuda/Poa overseed surfaced greens and genuinely a very strong comp to Quail Hollow in setup and toughness. He finished a solid T27 at this event last season and his leadup has been solid for 2024, having just finished T20 at the Masters and T2 in Houston last month.

Mar 30, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Taylor Moore (USA) drives off the eighth tee during the third round of the Texas Children's Houston Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

At +230, I like looking to him for a placement bet this week, and if you were looking for a longshot outright play, he’d be my choice with +9000 or better still widely available.  

Rickie Fowler Top 20 (+190; DraftKings)

Given how long Quail Hollow has been on the PGA TOUR as an official stop, it can certainly be a venue where course experience is worth diving into for betting. In that regard, Rickie Fowler stands out as a name to watch this week as he currently sits only behind Rory McIlroy in strokes gained total per round since 2015 (via @JustinRayGolf). 

It’s been a tough go thus far for Fowler in 2024, but his swing work is starting to pay off. During his T18 finish at the Heritage two weeks ago, he gained over 2.0 strokes on approach and around the green, the best combined stats he’s put up in those two categories all season. I’m not sure I’d necessarily see him coming over the top on this field and grabbing the win, but at the very least, he’s a name that makes plenty of sense in the placing markets. 

Taking both him and Moore at well over +150 in odds for a top 20 also means that we only need one to hit to profit, but maintain some solid upside in the event both manage to come through.