2024 Zozo Championship Best Bets: Back Sahith Theegala at 18-1?

We have more action on the greens this week and Geoff has his Zozo Championship best bets locked and loaded:

Last week saw JT Poston hang on for his third PGA TOUR win, outlasting Doug Ghim (one of our picks from the week before, sigh) for a one-stroke victory. Poston used a wave advantage and some great putting and around-the-green play (+4.0 strokes ATG/ +5.5 strokes putting) to grab the victory.

With the Shriners out of the way the PGA now embarks on a three-week stretch where it will play three events in a row outside of the USA, starting with this week in Japan. There are now just four events left on this fall swing so anyone flirting with the top 125, or top 70, bubble has very few starts left to make a move, making this week’s start ever more important

Let’s get to this week’s event down below.

Zozo Championship Betting Breakdown

The Zozo Championship is in its sixth year on the PGA TOUR and has been a fixture on the fall swing ever since its inception in 2019. The event has been played at Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan on all but one occasion–with the 2020 version being moved to Sherbrook Country Club in Los Angeles due to COVID restrictions.

One of the main differences between the Zozo and other fall events on the PGA TOUR is that this event has a limited field and is co-sanctioned by the Japan Golf Tour. That means that there are only 78 players in the field this week, with seven spots available for the top money earners from the Japan Tour’s most recent season. The rest of the field is filled out by eight sponsor spots and by the top 60 players who apply to enter (based on current FedEx Cup standings). 

With the smaller field, all of the golfers will get in four rounds of play this week and there is no Friday cut.

Side note: If you need more bets with Golf in its offseason, be sure to follow our FREE NFL bet tracker which already has plenty of Week 8 bets up to consider. 

Here’s how the last three Zozo Championships have played out (all played at Narashino Country Club). 

2021 – Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) -15

• Was coming in off a week of rest, but had finished T6 in his only fall start (Fortinet).
• Matsuyama finished T2 at this event back in 2019 when played at Narashino.

2022 – Keegan Bradley (+4000) -15

• Was playing his second event of the fall. Had taken the week off prior but finished T5 at the Sanderson Farms in his previous start. 
• Had finished T13 at Narashino the previous year.

2023 – Collin Morikawa (+1100) -14

• Was playing his first event of the fall after a solid playoffs (T6 Tour Championship).
• Won by six strokes, and ranked T3 in GIR.

As mentioned above, this season’s Zozo Championship will again be hosted by Narashino Country Club, which is a par 70 that plays around 7,079 yards in length. The venue features bentgrass greens that typically play a little slower than regular PGA greens due to the climate, and it's worth noting that the gap between poor putters and elite putters has been mitigated in past seasons by the green surfaces. 

The venue is a tighter, tree-lined course that requires players to use solid course management, often having to club down off the tee for better position. The course also features a bit of a unique setup as it features five par 3s (rather just four, which you’d normally find on a par 70) and three par 5s. The tighter design and extra par 3 means that approach play is magnified this week, and our list of recent winners includes some of the best ball-strikers on TOUR in Woods, Matsuyama, Bradley, and Morikawa. 

On top of looking at recent form and course history, we’ll also be taking into account form in categories like GIR’s gained, strokes gained approach, and opportunities gained, this week as we go through the bets.

2024 Zozo Championship Betting Odds

2024 Zozo Championship Open Top 10 names in betting odds:

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Zozo Championship Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play.

While I have a handful of outright plays I do like playing many of these names in the placing department, or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

For odds, I’ve also used the best options available at the time of writing so you know where to look and what to look for.

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Sahith Theegala Outright (+1800; DraftKings)

Theegala is a player who could have multiple victories to his name right now, if not for a little better luck down the stretch in some of his previous finishes. He nearly won the Travelers in 2023, but for a poor rollout on his final drive, and came close to winning at both the RSM and in Phoenix in 2022.

Overall, Theegala’s a quality young player and while his odds may look somewhat short this week given the fact we have three top-10 players in the field, of the top five players in the betting odds, he’s the only one of the five to have made a competitive start this fall.

That extra start came in handy for Matsuyama in 2021 and Bradley in 2022, who both made a single start in the fall, posted a top-10 finish, and then came to Japan well-rested where they got the win. Theegala is following the same path as those two previous winners in 2024 having finished T7 in Napa in September, where he gained 5.1 strokes ball-striking.

Having done extremely well on numerous tighter golf courses throughout his young career already (T2 Hilton Head, T2 Travelers, T5 Murifield) Narashino CC should be right up Theegala’s alley. His previous two starts at this venue have both yielded solid finishes, and his T5 from 2022 (his first go around the course) is a great indicator that Narashino is a venue where he’s comfortable competing.

As much as I’d like to see a bigger number, Theegala’s form from the Playoffs means that we’re not likely to see him longer than this in the odds in any fall event this season. So with the top names coming in with no fall starts, and potentially a little rusty this week, he may even be a little undervalued at +1800, given his competitive advantage and course history. 

Kurt Kitayama Outright (+2700; bet365)

I’ll dip my toes back in the Kurt Kitayama waters this week, after a one-week hiatus, as the 31-year-old’s ball-striking numbers are simply too good to ignore right now. Kitayama gained an insane 10.1 strokes on approach two weeks ago in Utah and followed that up by gaining another 6.2 strokes on approach in Vegas. While he could only improve to a T9 finish last week, Kitayama did take a step up with his short game, gaining 3.4 strokes ATG.

Elite ball-strikers have tended to outperform at Narashino, and with different green surfaces in play, we’ve also seen poor historical putters like Bradley and Morikawa, be able to put in positive weeks on these greens, something Kitayama may be able to accomplish this week as well. While his putter has been letting him down of late, he did rank T8 in Putts per GIR at Narashino last season, on his way to a T16 finish.

Overall, with the history of this event favoring elite iron players, I see no reason not to take this price on Kitayama again, which is very similar to what we were getting him at in Utah two weeks ago; when he was up against a full-field and coming in with no recent competitive starts.

Longshots And Placement Bets For The Zozo Championship

Rickie Fowler Outright (+7500; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+500; FanDuel)

Fowler has got off to a nice in the fall. The veteran has played in two of the last three events and posted T16 and T23 finishes (Sanderson and Shriners). While those numbers don’t necessarily jump off the chart, the underlying data on Fowler looks excellent. He’s gained strokes on approach and off the tee in both of those two starts and was one of the leaders in strokes gained ball-striking stats at the Shriners, gaining 3.2 strokes on approach for the week.

Fowler has plenty of motivation this fall after putting in a terrible season in 2023-24 and he has some solid history to fall back on this week, as well, having finished runner-up to Bradley at Narashino in 2022. The 35-year-old won on Tour just over a season ago (and competed for a major at the US Open) going off at +1600 in Detroit that week for the Rocket Mortgage.

The fact we can now bet him at +7500 in a very similar and potentially weaker field, and with his game on the upswing, makes this a great time to jump on him for both an outright and placing bet.

I like laddering Fowler through the top-10 markets, but you can also get more aggressive in this spot and include a top-five placing or each-way bet alongside. Either way, if he continues to strike the ball like this, he should have a great of being on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday, and paying off at least one of our bets.  

Matt Kuchar Outright (+8500; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+550; bet365)
• Top 20 (+200; bet 365)

Veterans have done well at Narashino, with Bradley winning here in 2022 after a four-year drought, and Woods winning the event in 2019 while in his mid-40s. That’s a trend I think fellow veteran and seven-time PGA winner Matt Kuchar can potentially add to this weekend, as he enters off a stretch of solid play that includes two top-15 finishes over his last three starts.

The American has found his groove again from a ball-striking perspective as he’s gained strokes on approach in eight of his last nine PGA starts, and gained over 5.0 strokes on approach against the field in two of those tournaments. His summer included a T3 finish at the 3M Open and a T12 at the Wyndham, an event where he led after two rounds of play.

Considering the kind of elite ball-striking we’ve seen needed to win at Narshino, Kuchar should find this tougher par 70 enticing this week and makes sense as a longshot target with his odds still in the +8000 range.

I also like laddering him through the top 10 and top 20 markets as both his short game and putter took a tick up in Vegas last week, giving us extra outs should he regress a little with the longer game.

Full Betting Card
 

• Sahith Theegala +1800 1.0u
• Kurt Kitayama +3000 .65u
• Rickie Fowler +7500 .25u | Top 10 +500 .75
• Matt Kuchar +8500 .25 | Top 10 +550 0.35u | Top 20 +200 0.75u