2024 Zurich Classic Betting Breakdown: Course Preview, Best Bets, and more

With the 2024 Zurich Classic starting this Thursday, it will represent the seventh season that the PGA TOUR will have run this team event.

Started in 2004, the Zurich Classic used to be an annual stroke play tournament and (regardless of format) has been hosted by TPC Louisiana, a Pete Dye-designed venue, since inception.

Starting in 2017 the PGA turned this into an 80-man team event that saw players pair off in groups of two and alternate between best ball (fourballs) and alternate shot formats. With best ball simply taking the best score between the group (and both players playing their own ball the entire round) we have seen scoring get extremely low in this format.

Some other quick notes about the event:

• It’s an 80-team field with the cut taking place after Friday (top 33 teams and ties)
• Teams will play best ball (fourballs) on Thursday and Saturday with both players playing their own ball and the team taking the best score on every hole
• Teams will play alternate shot on Friday and Sunday, with teams playing one ball and players alternating turns, counting whatever score they manage as a team
• The defending champions are Davis Riley and Nick Hardy, who together won their first PGA title at this event last season
• The betting favorites are Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, who also won this event back in 2022
• This venue can sometimes feature heavier rain but it has been dry in the region this year and the course should play firmer as a result

Zurich Classic Betting Odds

As you would expect, many of the top players on the PGA will be off this week. Given that we just played the Masters and a signature event in back-to-back weeks it’s not shocking that names like Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland won't be playing. That said, the top team in the odds is still comprised of two top 15 players in Cantlay and Schauffele and we also have world number two Rory McIlroy on the team, who is second in betting odds (and paired with fellow Irishman Shane Lowry this week).

One of the most popular teams for betting thus far has been Sahith Theegala / Will Zalatoris who now have the third shortest odds as of Tuesday. Theegala has played great golf of late with five top-10 finishes over his last seven starts.

2024 Zurich Classic Top 5 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

Course Preview for the 2024 Zurich Classic

TPC Louisiana — Avondale, LA

Par 72, 7,435 yards; Greens: Bermuda (Poa overseed)

Designer: Pete Dye (2004)

Past winners (and odds):

• 2023: Davis Riley / Nick Hardy +5000
• 2022: Patrick Cantlay / Xander Schauffele +900
• 2021: Cameron Smith / Marc Leishman +1400
• 2020: COVID
• 2019: Ryan Palmer / Jon Rahm +1600

TPC Louisiana is a longer par 72 that tends to play on the easier side of things with thin rough and relatively receptive greens. The venue is a traditional par 72 that features a nice blend of more challenging holes, alongside some shorter par 4s and par 5s.

There is a higher rate of birdie putts made within 20 feet at TPC Louisiana than there is at a regular PGA Tour venue (via Fantasy National) and the par 5s tend to rate on the easy side of things. Despite the course length, the average driving distance at this event is about five to seven yards below the tour average. Given that we have seen several teams win now that didn’t feature a true bomber (Smith / Blixt, Hardy / Riley, Horschel / Piercy) emphasizing driving distance isn’t recommended this week.

In terms of history, the four stroke-play winners between 2013 and 2016 all gained four or more strokes putting for the week and we have seen plenty of elite putters gain wins at this venue. While approach play remains the stat where winners and top finishers have gained the most strokes on the field TPC Louisiana has been a haven for elite putters and putting ranks as the second most important stat in terms of past performances.

In terms of course history, and its role, TPC Louisiana has proven to cater to those who have played here multiple times. Billy Horchsel (who won the team event back in 2018) was also a past stroke play winner (2013), and the last two winning teams (Riley/Hardy, Schauffele/Cantlay) had both managed at least one top-15 team finish in a prior year.

2024 Zurich Classic Best Bets

Tom Hoge / Maverick McNealy Each-Way 1/4 top five (+2500; bet365)

When we look at past winners of this event we can see the average odds tend to fall right in the +2000 to +3000 range. We’ve had shorter winners like Cantlay / Schauffele in 2022 and a couple of longer winners like Cameron Smith and Jonas Blixt in 2017, who went off closer to +5000.

I have no interest in taking on the Cantlay / Schauffele duo at under +500 this season, and while the Theegala / Zalatoris pairing is more intriguing their number has been bet down from open at +750 which makes them unappealing enough for me to look elsewhere. Instead, I’d rather start with a pairing who have shown nearly as much promise as those first two pairings in 2024 but that comes with a much bigger price.

Tom Hoge may have finished T18 last week (thanks to the nine he recorded on his 72nd hole) but he was up near the leaders for most of the week, going head-to-head with names like Scheffler and Cantlay. Over the last 24 rounds of play on the PGA only Scheffler has gained more strokes on approach than Hoge who remains best suited for a more approach-driven venue like TPC Louisiana. Hoge has had success at this event before as well. Last year he paired with another elite putter in Harris English and the two were in contention going into the final round before sliding back to T13 after the Sunday alternate shot.

While McNealy may not be as polished as English, he’s certainly shown he’s a high-caliber player and his putting prowess is something this team will be able to lean on at points throughout the week. His top 10 finishes at venues like TPC Scottsdale and Hilton Head are also good indicators that TPC Louisiana may not be a poor setup for him either, even despite having missed the cut the last two seasons at this event (while playing with Joseph Bramlett). Considering both of these men have multiple top-10 finishes on the season and have shown promise at correlating venues throughout their careers, it’s not hard to see them having success right off the bat.

I like playing Hoge/ McNealy as an each-way this week on bet365 which provides the top five backstop at +550, odds that are much bigger than their current top five market prices elsewhere. 

Nick Taylor / Adam Hadwin Outright (+2800; BetMGM)

One other successful theme we’ve seen over the seasons at this event is the nationality duos. Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel (South Africa) put in multiple big finishes at this event before moving to LIV and Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith (Australia) beat the aforementioned duo in a playoff back in 2021.

This season, the Canadian duos look like the country with the most promise. While the contrarian in me likes Corey Conners and Taylor Pendrith the fact of the matter is that Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin have been the two most prominent Canadians from a results perspective this season (Taylor already has a win in Pheonix). As a result, the gap in odds between these two teams feels like it should be larger than it already is (Conners and Pendrith are just +3000).

Both Taylor and Hadwin have had issues stringing together four solid rounds of late but at the same time, their A-games don't seem far away. On top of Taylor already having a win under his belt this season Hadwin has accumulated three top-six finishes already in 2024, and if we go back to the fall his last 12 PGA starts have yielded four finishes of T6 or better.

As I mentioned off the top, I don’t consider the top teams overly strong this season so this seems like a great chance for this team to break through at this event, something they nearly did last year with their second-place finish. With them available at +2800 on BetMGM (and +2700 on bet365) taking the Canadians as an outright play to see if they can finish the job in 2024 makes plenty of sense to me and they rate as a better value proposition than dipping under the +1000 mark to get a piece of one of the top three teams.

Taylor Montgomery / Ben Griffin +6600 bet365 (each way, 1/4 top five)

If we’re looking for a group with bigger odds that can perhaps replicate some of the success that first-time winners Davis Riley and Nick Hardy experienced last season then the duo of Taylor Montgomery and Ben Griffin would get my vote.

On top of having bigger odds (+6600) both men have experience playing this event, with Montgomery finishing T19 at this event last season while playing with Kurt Kitayama (who coincidently shunned Montgomery this season to play with Collin Morikawa). The good news for Montgomery is that his new partner Griffin may not be a downgrade and might be more suited to this venue in the long term. Griffin missed the cut here last season with journeyman Ryan Gerard but has the kind of higher-end approach game and putting upside that often excels around Pete Dye venues. He’s grabbed top-five finishes at the Sanderson Farms, Wyndham Championships, and Bermuda Championships already and is capable of excelling in these weaker field events where the setups generally maximize scoring.

Montgomery has struggled over his last two starts but was T11 at TPC Sawgrass last month (another Dye venue) and is coming off a nice period of rest where he would have (hopefully) been able to reset his long game. Griffin has gained strokes putting and on approach in four straight starts now. I like the prices on this duo and while an each-way bet for them to finish top five or top eight placing is preferred, they also look like solid plays for the top 10 market at +450.

Kevin Tway / Kelly Kraft Top 20 (+400; DraftKings)

One last theme I like capitalizing on this week: the journeyman veteran combo. Over the past two seasons here are some names of teams that have landed with full top 20 places at this event:

• Sean O’Hair / Brandon Matthews (2023)
• Troy Merrit / Robert Streb (2023)
• Martin Trainer / Chad Ramey (2023)
• Mark Hubbard / Ryan Brehm (2022)
• Justin Lower / Dylan Wu (2022)

While we haven’t seen a team deeper than 100-1 team win this event multiple have paid off for bettors who have tracked them in the placing markets at bigger odds. This season, I think the Kevin Tway / Kelly Kraft duo makes plenty of sense as a play for a top 20. Tway (who won the Fortinet Championship back in 2018) is starting to play better golf and comes into this week off a T3 in Punta Cana. His length off the tee and ability to get hot with the putter gives this team a solid base. Kraft is a supreme wild card as he’s only made one start this season but he’s shown the ability to play well off long stretches of inactivity in the past and has played this event with Tway six times now.

It’s been a tough go for these two over the past three seasons but their debut as a team back in 2017 saw them land a T3 at TPC Louisiana and they also placed T13 at this event back in 2019. Given the fact we’re also getting them at +400 on DraftKings (and they’re well under that price at most other places) makes them a decent value prospect in my eyes for this market.

Zurich Classic Tournament Props

Nick Hardy / Davis Riley To Make the Cut (-110; BetMGM)

Not every sportsbook has “to make the cut” offers up this week, but BetMGM does. The price that stuck out to me the most when perusing this market was on the defending champions who were a coinflip (sans juice) to make the weekend. I get that defending a crown isn’t easy but we have seen better play of late from Riley who loves this event and course (win and a T4 the last two seasons with two different players).

I actually like betting these two as a top 10 play as well (they’re +375 on BetMGM) but a safer and perhaps better value proposition is to take them in this “to make the cut” market. Both men have survived the weekend here in their last two events and with Riley playing better golf of late they should come into this week ready and eager to go after their second title.

Ben Griffin / Taylor Montgomery over Chris Gotterup / Austin Eckroat (+110; bet365)

I discussed why I like the Griffin / Montgomery pairing above and while you have to respect the elite ball-striking of Austin Eckroat, this kind of format does take some of his edge away given how many strokes a group with two elite putters can make up in a single round.

Gotterup is a wildcard and he could carry his group for stretches but with Eckroat coming off a busy stretch (he did miss the cut at the Masters) I think the +110 odds are worth taking on Griffin and Montgomery, who are the fresher duo at the moment.