In today's Betting Life Newsletter: 

IT’S FUTURES SZN: I don’t know about you but the Super Bowl left a baseball-sized hole in my heart.

Is there a sweeter sound to the human ear than balls smacking into leather gloves?

If there is, let me know so I can vehemently disagree with you …

MLB Futures Past/Present

Warming weather and grass seeds sprouting can only mean one thing—it’s time to prepare for MLB 2025. Today, we’ll dive back into the National League’s Central Division for a closer look at the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals (check out the Pirates here) to try and identify any edge in the early betting markets.

While doom-scrolling social media yesterday, I happened to stumble on a bookmark-worthy graphic using DraftKings’ current lines I wanted to share, courtesy of @Brooks_Gate.


While you should check out our 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Kit it is very clearly baseball season for me now.

Welcome to our MLB team betting previews and correlating futures plays SZN. Woohoo!

I’ll walk you through the current starting rosters with projections and whether or not they provide any value in the futures market.

Also, make sure to stay plugged in with us throughout the NFL’s offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.

WHO’S WINNING THE WORLD SERIES?


Click here, click there … click everywhere!

⚔️ I write a start/sit football column with Gene Clemons. I love him. His breakdown of Shedeur Sanders vs. Cam Ward is such a great read.

💰 In his latest mock, Freedman gives us a +200 bet for 1st overall pick. It’s not who you think it is!

❤️ LOVE LOVE LOVE LOVE LOVE the Kendall and Cooterdoodle show.

🥗 Where are my card collectors? Topps Series 1 has launched … and they have Larry David autographs.

🧸 Not sure how many people are watching women’s hoops as closely as I am, but I have some UCLA/Lauren Betts futures. USC handed the Bruins their first loss of the season last night. My reaction? Buy more Betts!

⛹🏾‍♀️ Women’s college hoops odds update right here. It’s going to be a fun run to the end!

🏀 While we’re at it: 3-point shootout odds! It’s All-Star weekend!!

MLB Team Preview⚾♦️—Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati finished 2024 with a disappointing 77-85 record, 16.0 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. However, injuries (and one seriously deflating PED suspension) piled bodies up onto the inactive list—and things heading into this season aren’t nearly as bleak for the Red Legs.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. TJ Friedl, CF: .233 / 58 / 47 / 12 / 16
  2. Elly De La Cruz, SS: .253 / 100 / 76 / 25 / 50
  3. Matt McLain, 2B: .253 / 79 / 73 / 21 /18
  4. Tyler Stephenson, C: .258 / 55 / 62 / 17 / 1
  5. Spencer Steer, 1B: .245 / 73 / 70 / 19 / 13
  6. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, DH: .259 / 50 / 60 / 18 / 2
  7. Jeimer Candelario, 3B: .238 / 57 / 61 / 16 / 5
  8. Gavin Lux, RF: .252 / 49 / 46 / 10 / 6
  9. Austin Hays, LF: .247 / 47 / 54 / 15 / 3

Hitting Overview: The first thing that should come to bettors’ minds when discussing the Reds is easy—smash those overs nightly. Great American Small Park, as it’s become known in gambling circles, became one of the premier hitting parks in MLB, maybe even more than Coors Field. Sure, everyone knows about the thin air up in Colorado, which tends to thrust Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP)—but Cincy’s the new home of the long ball. Per Baseball Savant’s Statcast Park Factor, GABP holds a +5% lead on the entire field in terms of Home Runs. Boom.

That said, I’m still pumping my brakes on the Reds’ individual player futures, which create a unique hurdle because of all the platooning about to happen. I guess if you felt good about anyone or anything, it’d have to be Elly De La Cruz’s stolen bases—but the pricing is already crazy. Get this: the third-year phenom is set at (+130), or 43.5% implied probability to lead the league in stolen bases. Thanks, but no thanks.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  1. Hunter Greene, RHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  2. Brady Singer, RHP:⭐⭐
  3. Andrew Abbott, LHP:⭐⭐
  4. Nick Martinez, RHP:⭐⭐⭐
  5. Nick Lodolo, LHP:⭐⭐⭐

Starting Pitching Overview: It may not look like much to the casual fan but I’m extremely optimistic. In fact, if there a was half-star emoji to emote a possible step forward, SP 2-4 would receive one. The Reds’ rotation is not only pretty deep throughout, there’s some real upside here. For example, Nick Lodolo’s a former first-round pick who’s already shown flashes of brilliance. He could, would and just might be the best SP5 in the game today if things break right for him. If CIN’s going to make any noise this season, it will be due to the rotation getting through 5+ IP consistently and putting them in a solid position to win.

CHECK OUT MY PIRATES PREVIEW HERE


MLB Team Preview⚾🐦—St. Louis Cardinals

For all the writing, betting, social media smack talk, and general content creation I do it’s amazing how many things manage to slip through the cracks. In the name of absolute transparency, I have to admit I had no idea the Cards won 83 games in 2024 (same as the Cubs by the way) to finish 10 games off the division and 6 out of the final Wild Card spot. 

That said, I’m fairly certain my daughter just spent more at her Scholastic book fair last Tuesday than Saint Louis did all offseason. In this age of expanded playoffs, where anything can happen if you just make the dance—you’d think a +.500 team would try and push forward into the postseason picture rather than drop down into the basement. Their win total currently dropped six games off last year’s pace and that might not be enough.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. Masyn Winn, SS: .251 / 70 / 60 / 12 / 16
  2. Alec Burleson, DH: .259 / 54 / 59 / 14 / 5
  3. Willson Contreras, 1B: .246 / 67 / 65 / 19 / 5
  4. Brendan Donovan, 2B: .267 / 66 / 60 / 11 / 5
  5. Nolan Arenado, 3B: .243 / 61 / 69 / 16 / 3
  6. Lars Nootbaar, LF: .246 / 61 / 57 / 16 / 7
  7. Jordan Walker, RF: .248 / 59 / 59 / 15 / 7
  8. Iván Herrera, C: .256 / 42 / 39 / 9 / 4
  9. Victor Scott II, CF: .228 / 43 / 28 / 6 / 21

Hitting Overview: I could be dead wrong, but this seems… bad. I’ll tell you what—STL better plan on channeling some more of that famous devil magic if they hope to come anywhere close to repeating last year’s output. Name a type of concern you could have for an Opening Day offense (experience, talent, power, or injury) and it’s present in spades. Plus, it’s not as if there’s a stable of impact bats waiting in the wings. For the most part, what you see is what you get. Ugh.

Granted, the Cardinals front office has an old-fashioned, blue-collar type—good batting averages with low strikeout rates that would make our grandparents proud. However, they’re all groundball machines with very little power potential. Not a single player projects for +20 HR, which presents an obvious obstacle in today’s all-or-nothing game.

If (and it’s actually a big if) the entire lineup manages to reach projections, they’re still going to stink at the dish in 2025. 

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  1. Sonny Gray, RHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐
  2. Erick Fedde, RHP:⭐
  3. Miles Mikolas, RHP:⭐
  4. Andre Pallante, RHP:⭐
  5. Steven Matz, RHP:⭐

Pitching Overview: If the offense seems bad, this rotation’s even worse. Yes, Sonny Gray hung another beautiful season on the ledger—but you couldn’t pay me to bet on him this season. The 35-year-old hurler suffered right forearm flexor tendinitis that sent him to the IL in late September, ending his season. Arm issues to the throwing side often indicate further issues down the line, and he’s literally the last piece keeping them viable as a staff. 

After Gray, once again it feels like taking a trip back in time to find success. Not a single starter throws 95+ MPH or posted a +20% K, +10% Swinging Strike, or +20% Whiff rate in the majors last year. In this day and age of nasty, belt-buckling stuff, that’s unsustainable and simply put, not going to work.

Sorry to my Cardinal faithful out there but barring major changes, it’s going to be a very long season on the bump. 

CAN AARON JUDGE REPEAT AS MLB HOME RUN CHAMP?