In today's Betting Life Newsletter: 

It’s here! Yes, regular-season baseball is here! Well, actually “here” is taking place in Japan, as the Dodgers and Cubs throw the first pitch of the 2025 MLB season in the Tokyo Dome today at 6 a.m. ET. Yawn. Who’s getting up with me?

SHO-Down in Japan

Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers faces off against the Cubs’ Shota Imanaga in the first-ever Opening Day tilt pitting Japanese-born starting pitchers. And the first batter is expected to be none other than Shohei Ohtani, the man who last season became the first player in MLB history to reach 50-50 status. Seeing as he has a flair for the dramatic, we had to check what the odds would be if he were to lead off the new season with a home run. DraftKings has it at +240. Who would put that past Ohtani after what he did last year?

Now that baseball is sorta back, before the rest of the league digs in on March 27 we have the rest of the MLB team previews to run through. The Dodgers and Cubs have already had their turns before they went Far East. Now we’ll stay east, just not so far.

A Division Up For Grabs

With just a small handful of squads left to cover in our MLB team preview series, let me take a second to thank all our readers out there for being sharp enough to where to get the best info.

We appreciate everyone out there choosing to hang out with us through an absolute marathon, known as the MLB season.

Hopefully, you’ve enjoyed these detailed windows into each team, aimed to give you a leg up on preseason baseball betting markets with all the most recent analysis.

It’s last, but certainly not least, as we stay out east, but move over to the American League to cover the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays through what promises to be one of MLB’s most heated and tightly contested divisions.

But first, let’s check last year’s team starting rotation ERA leaders …

2024 Team Leaderboard: Starting Rotation ERA

And, of course, what kind of betting newsletter would this be if we didn’t put all this great analysis to good use and wrap up with my favorite future bet?

📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here, along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute!

🏈 To my fantasy football people, of course, we have you covered on Fantasy Life:

📋 It’s rankings week, and our analysts are updating their ranks all week. Dwain and Ian have already broken down their rankings, with more to come. We’ve been tracking every fantasy-relevant move with our NFL Free Agency Tracker, speculating on the latest Aaron Rodgers drama, and looking at what ADPs are bound to rise from these recent signings.

🔮 Thor Nystrom just published his scouting report on Luther Burden, one of the rising stars in the incoming wideout class.

💪 Speaking of incoming draftees, Dwain McFarland delivered the Rookie WR Super Model for the 2025 WR class.

OK, time to get back to some hardball in the AL East! Click this button below 👇 to head to our futures page!

BLUE JAYS STILL A SURE THING TO FINISH LAST IN THE AL EAST?

Do people still have watercoolers? Around the Slack? Here’s what I’m reading …

🦞 Come for the crawfish, stay for talk on how free agency shaped the NFL.

⚾️ Shohei Ohtani goes yard today? These are some popular props for the Tokyo Series opener.

📋 Fill out your March Madness bracket … right here.

🏀 Futures odds for the women’s and men’s NCAA Tournaments.

📈 It’s fantasy football rankings week. The latest.

⚾🍁MLB Team Preview—Toronto Blue Jays🍁⚾

No other division is set to undergo the type of potential disruption in 2025 than the American League East. A big part of that’s not just a new Yankee heading to the IL daily (which certainly doesn’t hurt)—but the sneaky-good offseason Toronto’s GM John Schneider had. Despite taking some heat early for seemingly always being the bridesmaid but never the bride in the free-agent market, the bluebirds addressed major concerns.

Sure, Toronto finished last in the East—but a closer look into the standings reveals a little less disparity than assumed. The Blue Jays were 10 games under .500 in-division (21-31) and 11 games under in one-run games (19-30). Regarding the latter, new acquisitions in righties Nick Sandlin, Yimi García, and lights-out closer Jeff Hoffman could normalize those outcomes and land TOR in a serious Wild Card discussion come the Fall.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. Bo Bichette, SS: .272 / 71 / 67 / 14 / 11
  2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B: .299 / 97 / 103 / 34 / 5
  3. Anthony Santander, RF: .235 / 78 / 92 / 33 / 2
  4. George Springer, LF: .246 / 75 / 66 / 18 / 14
  5. Andrés Giménez, 2B: .255 / 75 / 53 / 11 / 29
  6. Alejandro Kirk, C: .252 / 45 / 45 / 10 / 0
  7. Will Wagner, DH: .259 / 34 / 31 / 6 / 2
  8. Ernie Clement, 3B: .256 / 37 / 34 / 7 / 7
  9. Joey Loperfido, CF: .218 / 15 / 13 / 3 / 3

Hitting Overview: Perhaps not as extreme as the Houston Astros, this lineup could call for another mention of the now-infamous horse drawing. How can you not love this top five with new additions Andrés Giménez and slugger Anthony Santander? Tony Taters just finished with 44 bombs in 2024, good for third in all of MLB. He’ll shore up a top third starring two famous juniors with infinite potential, and more importantly, chips on their shoulder with points to prove in walk years. 

Dwelling so deep in baseball spreadsheets all year has its advantages. Hence, our ability to identify a team’s identity by trait. When I say the Jays have a type, I mean it. Outside of nine-hitter Joey Loperfido (who likely loses his starting role as soon as Daulton Varsho returns), Toronto’s the closest thing to being impossible to K in the bigs. 

Strikeout prop bettors take early note—not a single batter in the top eight struck out at more than a +20% clip in 2024. Remove George Springer and none of the remaining seven batters have a swinging-strike rate over 11.5% or a zone-contact rate below 88%. Add in a bunch of really low first-swing rates, and that kind of collective discipline stretches opposing starters to their max, making it increasingly difficult to go deep into games.

Despite playing in a tough division and needing more production than projected from the back third, this doesn’t feel at all like the last-place offense Las Vegas expects.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  1. Kevin Gausman, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  2. José Berri­os, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐
  3. Chris Bassitt, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐
  4. Max Scherzer, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  5. Bowden Francis, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Starting Pitching Overview: They say boring veterans win, and for Toronto’s sake, fans sure hope it’s true. While we’re digging up adages, Blue Jay faithful are also hoping age is just a number—their top four starters average 35.5 years old. In this age of advanced training methods, it’s not necessarily ancient but it’s not young either. If there’s a more lunch-pail rotation in MLB today, I’ve yet to cover it.

Toronto’s pitching development team clearly cares more about quality of depth over sexy internet GIFs. Not a single SP tops out at over 94 mph or struck out more than 23% of batters faced, but that’s not all that matters. They all consistently get ahead of hitters (min 62% first strike) and rarely offer free passes—none posted a double-digit walk rate in 2024. And outside of Max Scherzer (who’s looked back to peak powers this spring), each averaged at least 16.5 outs per game started last season. That type of depth should have led to more wins than it did, but frankly the now-corrected bullpen stunk. Did you know the Jays’ pen had MLB’s second-worst ERA in 2024, mostly due to ranking dead last in walk rate (11.8%), barrel rate (8.2%), and dreaded HR/9 (1.54).

ANTHONY SANTANDER’S ODDS TO LEAD MLB IN HOME RUNS

⚾🌞MLB Team Preview—Tampa Bay Rays🌞⚾

I’ve got enough Yankee broadcasts under my belt to know the term “those pesky Rays” is well-earned. Always injured up and down the roster, no matter what, they always seem to get the job done. Even facing low expectations in a brutal division entering 2024, Tampa fell just one game short of avoiding its first losing season in seven years. The secret sauce always lay with the bullpen, which finally disappointed and without any offseason buttressing, worries me for a repeat.

Our big story is the regular-season move to a spring training complex at Steinbrenner Field, where the gut reaction is going to be betting the over nightly. Hey, at least they’ll finally be playing in front of some packed houses—its capacity stands at just over 11,000. 

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. Yandy Díaz, 1B: .278 / 75 / 76 / 20 / 1
  2. Brandon Lowe, 2B: .239 / 60 / 65 / 21 / 4
  3. Junior Caminero, 3B: .263 / 65 / 75 / 23 / 5
  4. Josh Lowe, RF: .239 / 64 / 56 / 17 / 21
  5. Danny Jansen, C: .225 / 41 / 46 / 15 / 1
  6. Jonathan Aranda, DH: .241 / 46 / 51 / 15 / 0
  7. Christopher Morel, LF: .231 / 67 / 69 / 24 / 11
  8. Jonny DeLuca, CF: .233 / 51 / 43 / 11 / 14
  9. Taylor Walls, SS: .203 / 22 / 16 / 4 / 8

Hitting Overview: Not to cop out on you but Tampa’s offense always presents such a challenge in nailing down because of its all-or-none nature. Whenever a group of hitters is this erratic with such tremendous ability to do damage, they’re the perennial box of chocolates—you never know what you’re gonna get. Popular 90s movie reference aside, let me try and explain what I mean.

Outside of Yandy Díaz’s combination of disciplined approach and batted-ball quality, no one else pairs the two together. Both Lowes and youngster Junior Caminero seriously struggle with in-zone contact (sub-69% Contact, +31.5% Whiff), so despite the ability to kill the ball at times (+10% Barrel, +.370 xwOBAcon), they’re entirely too erratic to predict consistently. 

Adding new fuel to the all-in philosophy at the dish are two more high-power, low-batting average acquisitions Jonathan Aranda and Christopher Morel. When the Rays are clicking, they’re going to rattle off multiple +10-run scoring outputs in a week, but the inverse also stands true. I’m not sure if anyone out there still plays in “13 Run” leagues (the first team to post every score between 0 and 13 wins), but the Rays would easily be my 1.01 if given the chance. Expect lots of strikeouts and lots of bombs, especially since they’ll be moving to the Yankees’ spring training home, Steinbrenner Field. 

Modeled after the House That Ruth Built (image below), famously favorable to left-handed power, bettors need to keep an eye out for individual HR props for Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, and Jonathan Aranda if and when they finally get posted.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  1. Shane McClanahan, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  2. Taj Bradley, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  3. Ryan Pepiot, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  4. Zack Littell, RHP: ⭐⭐
  5. Shane Baz, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐
  6. Drew Rasmussen, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐

Pitching Overview: (waves hands wildly) I can’t seem to make heads or tails of this team on either side of the ball. On one hand, there’s an argument we’re looking at one of the best staffs in the bigs on a per-inning basis. Shane McClanahan (who missed all of 2024) is 13 months removed from Tommy John surgery—when pitchers notoriously struggle with command/control. While that hasn't been the case at all this spring, no one knows what’ll happen when the bell rings. If you’re the type to worry high-velocity hurling leads to arm injuries, don’t watch when Taj “Mahal” Bradley is on the bump. He pumps gas at hitters, but also loves working up in the zone, evidenced in elevated rates of barrels and home runs surrendered. He’s as exciting as they come on a start-to-start basis, both good and bad.

Ryan Pepiot and Zack Littell are Tampa’s reclamation projects, both coming off wonderful seasons—but neither’s put up the type of innings pitched last year and it’s fair to wonder if a repeat’s in the cards. 

Then there’s Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen, who you guessed it, dominate on a per-inning basis but have serious workload concerns. With four elbow surgeries between them and just over 100 IP combined in 2024, how much volume can we reasonably expect this season?

While any full-season predictions are deeply in speculation, one thing’s for sure at this point—Tampa’s going to be one of my favorite F5 bets (first five innings) while the rotation is still standing. Spotty public perception plus impact pitchers make for good pricing in my favorite market.

IS JUNIOR CAMINERO A LOCK FOR ROOKIE OF THE YEAR?

🔮 Look Into My Crystal Ball: Quick Hit Futures Bets 🔮

Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do. 

It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account is at $0.

THE BET: Vladimir Guerrero To Lead MLB IN Hits (+1100) On MGM, Risk (0.10u ONLY) 

There’s enough signal here for me to claim a misprice, especially if you like to buy into walk-year breakouts. It’s no secret Vladito’s one of the best pure hitters in the game today—you don’t get projected by THE BAT X to lead MLB in batting average by accident. Plus he plays every single day, averaging over 695 PA/season over the last four years. It’s also worth mentioning only Freddie Freeman has more hits in that timespan.

Guerrero mans the top third of a good lineup, he’s impossible to strike out (career 15.6% K) and boasts top-tier contact metrics given the elite career +50% hard-hit rate. Much to fantasy players’ usual chagrin, the lack of flyballs in his profile finally serves a benefit in the hit market. For reference, balls in the air resulted in just a .217 batting average league-wide last season. He showed up to camp looking lean and picking up right where he left off with a .314 BA so far this spring. Our main competition for the crowns rests with Luis Arraez, this generation’s Tony Gwynn, but at (+1100), or just an 8.3% chance at success it’s already baked into the price.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

VLADITO’S ODDS TO WIN AL MVP