The NFL Combine is behind us, and Matthew Freedman is here to share updates across the 2025 NFL Draft Odds market:

One of the greatest pleasures in life is betting on the NFL draft.

Unless you bet that Michael Penix won't go in Round 1. Then it's not so much fun.

Over the past six years (since I started submitting mocks in competitions), I’m the No. 2 mocker for accuracy, and I'm a lifetime 484-424 (+102.6 units) betting on the draft. Subscribe to our free Betting Life Newsletter for regular guidance, best bets, and more.

While the NFL prop market is still small at this time of the year, we have enough props to consider, and now that the combine is over, it feels as if the market is starting to take some shape.

Here are the props that stand out to me and where they are as of Sunday night (Mar. 2).

2025 NFL Draft Markets and Odds

No. 1 Overall Pick

This is the one market that is almost ubiquitously open, although there are a few books yet to post. Here are the best odds currently available.

The Chalky Top Four

  • QB Cam Ward (Miami): -200 (FanDuel)
  • EDGE Abdul Carter (Penn State): +185 (FanDuel)
  • WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado): +1000 (BetMGM)
  • QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado): +1300 (BetMGM)

There are the four players with odds shorter than 50-1 to go off the board with the first pick.

In the interest of full disclosure, I slated Carter to the Titans at No. 1 in my most recent mock draft, and I have a position logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker for Carter to go No. 1 (+220, FanDuel).

Given his age (21 years old), pedigree (unanimous All-American), and production (12 sacks and nation-leading 24 tackles for loss as a junior), Carter might be the rare defensive player who deserves to go No. 1.

Titans President of Football Operations Chad Brinker has said that the team "won't pass up on a generational talent" at No. 1, and Ward—as much as I like him—is not a once-a-decade prospect (in my opinion).

At the same time, the Giants and Jets could attempt to trade up to No. 1 to take a QB (probably Ward), trading out of the spot would make some sense for the Titans (especially if they trade back with the Giants for the No. 3 pick), and if the Titans stay at No. 1 they could decide on their own to take a QB, because they can't possibly go into this upcoming season with Will Levis as the starter, right?

So it probably makes sense for Ward to be favored in this market.

The Long Shot

There is one more player I feel I should mention: EDGE Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M), who is a delicious +15000 (BetMGM) to go No. 1.

And, yes, "delicious" is the right word.

Honestly, Stewart has almost no chance of going No. 1. That's more than suggested by the +15000 odds, which carry with them a 0.66% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).

But I'd say his odds are probably more like 1%. Maybe even 1.5%.

If Stewart's true probability to go No. 1 were in fact 1.5%, then the fair odds for him would be +6566.

And that feels about right, given a few facts.

  1. Stewart dominated the combine with his elite freaky athleticism.
  2. As an athlete, Stewart is comparable to Myles Garrett, who went No. 1 in 2017.
  3. EDGE Travon Walker went No. 1 just a few years ago, thanks entirely to his athleticism.

Stewart had just 1.5 sacks last year—but if he somehow went No. 1 as a toolsy developmental prospect, it wouldn't be the first time in history a coach looked at an elite athlete and said, “You can't teach speed, but I can teach that guy how to play football.”

I haven't bet this yet … but I'm tempted.

Team to Pick No. 1 Overall Pick 

This prop is available only at DraftKings.

The Chalky Top Three

  • Titans: -175
  • Giants: +110
  • Jets: +1000

Given that the Titans currently have the No. 1 pick, they should be the odds-on favorite.

And then the Giants and Jets are both desirous to trade up (per ESPN's Dan Graziano).

Given the notable difference between their current draft spots, the Giants (No. 3) have the clear inside track on the Jets (No. 7). If the Titans trade down to No. 3, they are still guaranteed to get one of the top prospects in the class. But if they trade down to No. 7, then they're taking a big chance that they won't get a difference-making player this year.

So these odds make sense to me, although I will note that they are a little too juiced for my taste.

The Long Shot

If I had to bet on a team to pick No. 1 at longer than 10-1 odds … it would be the Browns (+1600), Raiders (+1600), or Cowboys (+5000).

Given that they have the No. 2 pick, the Browns could probably trade up to No. 1 without giving up too much. For the Titans, the Browns would be the ideal trade partner—and Browns GM Andrew Berry has previously displayed a willingness to trade away a lot of draft capital to get the QB he wants.

As for the Raiders, GM John Spytek said at the combine that the team will be "intelligently aggressive" when addressing the QB position this offseason. Given that Spytek is in his first year on the job and seems willing to be bold, a trade to No. 1 is conceivable.

And finally … the Cowboys. I strongly doubt that they'll trade up to No. 1, but I wouldn't put anything past owner/GM Jerry Jones.

No. 1 QB Selected

This prop is available only at DraftKings.

The Chalky Top Three

  • Cameron Ward: -700
  • Shedeur Sanders: +400
  • Jaxson Dart: +2500

In 84% of the recent mocks I've perused, Ward is the No. 1 QB in the class. That comes out to -525 odds.

In the remaining 16%, Sanders is the No. 1 QB, and that comes out to +525.

Look at the juice.

DraftKings knows how to make money.

For the prospect profiles on all three QBs from Thor Nystrom, our resident Fantasy Life NFL draft guru, check out the following links.

The Longshot

Before the Senior Bowl, I would've said that Jalen Milroe (+7500) warranted some consideration as the No. 1 QB selected. Now, not a chance.

Team to Select RB Ashton Jeanty

This prop is available only at DraftKings.

The Chalky Top Four

  • Cowboys: +260
  • Raiders: +320
  • Bears: +320
  • Broncos: +700

I haven't made this bet yet … but in 48% of recent mocks the Cowboys select RB Ashton Jeanty.

It makes so much sense.

In terms of talent, Jeanty is a top-five player, but when we apply a positional downgrade because he plays RB, the No. 12 pick fits his reasonable draft range.

The Cowboys need an RB with Rico Dowdle slated to hit free agency.

And Jeanty feels like the kind of playmaker that Jones won't be able to resist selecting if he's available. In fact, it's pretty easy to imagine Jones wanting Jeanty so much that he would trade up to ensure he gets him.

The Raiders, Bears, and Broncos are all realistic options—but the Cowboys deserve to be the frontrunners.

The Longshot

The Steelers (+1200) and Chargers (+1400) both feel like real options in that their offenses are driven by the running game and their starting RBs are both free agents.

Jeanty almost certainly won't make it to the Steelers at No. 21 and Chargers at No. 22—but if he does, I'd be surprised if he made it to No. 23.

Team to Select WR/CB Travis Hunter

This prop is available only at DraftKings.

The Chalky Top Five

  • Giants: +275
  • Patriots: +275
  • Browns: +450
  • Titans: +500
  • Jaguars: +500

In not one recent mock I've seen Hunter make it to No. 5, so the Jags will be very lucky if he falls to them. I don't see one of the longshot teams getting Hunter.

The Patriots at No. 4 feel like a solid backstop: In 36% of mocks, he goes there, which comes out to +178.

And the Titans and Browns could both take QBs, which would leave Carter and Hunter available to the Giants at No. 3. Given that they already have EDGEs Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux—and given the subpar state of their WR and CB units—the Giants could opt for Hunter, who goes to the Giants in 28% of recent mocks (+257).

I haven't done it yet, but betting on both Giants and Pats is intriguing.