The 2025 PGA season roars on, and Geoff Ulrich is here with his picks to win the 2025 Sony Open, as well as a course preview, betting trends, odds, and more:
Last week saw Hideki Matsuyama bring home his 11th career win on the PGA TOUR and third win since the start of 2024. It’s been a hot run for the Japanese superstar, who beat Collin Morikawa by three strokes and got to an insane 35-under par for the week.
The preview bets for the Sentry also did alright with Sepp Straka hitting a full top 20 (+150) and Ludwig Aberg squeezing in for a full top 10 (+150) and a partial top 5 (+333).
We’ll try and build off a solid start at the second event, the Sony Open this week.
2025 Sony Open Breakdown
The Sony Open remains a mainstay on the PGA calendar and, as per usual, it marks the second official event of the new year.
A landmark on the PGA since its inception in 1965, this event has featured plenty of international winners like Isao Aoki and Ernie Els, while also becoming one of the favorite stops of many veteran PGA Tour pros. Its place at the start of the calendar and outside the mainland USA gives it a bit of an international feel too as the tropical temperatures offer a way for most pros to ease into the year before the tougher courses ahead on the West Coast and in Florida.
While a lot of the field from last week will be making the puddle-jumping flight across the islands to play in Honolulu as always we do lose some of the bigger names attached to the Tournament of Champions. Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Thomas will all be taking the week but last week’s champion Hideki Matsuyama will be in the field. Matsuyama actually won this event back in 2022 and there have been multiple players to have both Hawaii events, with the last to do it being Thomas back in 2017.
Despite the trend of players having won both events, the two Hawaii tournaments couldn’t be more different. While the TOC offers a limited field event on a big sprawling course, the Sony Open is a more cozy affair that takes place on the classic design of Waialae Country Club, a tree-lined venue that features some of the tightest fairways on Tour.
While the venue has produced some low winning scores of late—Justin Thomas blitzed it to 27-under par in 2017—wind and rain can factor in here. In 2020 we saw the highest winning score here since 2005, when Cam Smith took home his first PGA win at just 11-under par.
Last season the course played tough as well with the late Grayson Murray taking home the win at 17-under par in a three-man playoff.
The forecast once again calls for hotter weather and a lot of wind as the weekend is set to see gusts between 12-20mph. If the greens dry out players will likely have trouble holding these smaller greens which place a bigger emphasis on short games.
We’ll discuss more about the course and history below before getting into the bets.
Let’s dive in and get our PGA week started!
2025 Sony Open Course Preview
Waialae Country Club - used from 1965-present
Field Size: 144 players
Purse and Winner’s Prize: 8.3 million (winner 1.5 million)
7,044 yards, Par 70
- Greens: Bermuda
- Fairway: Bermuda
- Rough: Bermuda
- Architect: Seth Raynor (built in 1927)
Alterations: Renovations by Robert Trent Jones, Desmond Muirhead, Rick Smith, Tom Doak
Waialae is one of the oldest venues on Tour and really hasn’t gone through any massive restorations of late, which means we have a lot of course history data we can flex on if we want to here.
Ultimately, the players who have success here are the same kinds of players we find challenging at other classic venues across the PGA, where the length of the course doesn’t really present much of a problem to even the middling to below-average drivers of the ball. Harbour Town GL, Colonial, Sedgefield PGA Stadium, and even PGA National all have big similarities, and results at those courses can be viewed as indicators of how a certain player might perform over here if they don’t have a ton of Waialae course history to back them up.
The Par-70 at Waialae likely lands in the softer side of that group above, as it features just two par 5s, but both offer the players great shots at birdies and will also produce multiple eagles from the field throughout the week. While there are five Par 4s that measure over 450 yards in length, only one has consistently produced a scoring average over 4.15, as the rest tend to play close to par for the week and are still birdie-able if the pin is accessible.
The fairways here are some of the tightest on Tour, as the field typically averages just around 52-54% driving accuracy (far below the Tour average) but the rough here generally isn’t all that penal. Still, holding the smaller greens when they are dried out can be extremely difficult if you miss the fairway. Last year’s winner, Grayson Murray, finished 14th in Driving Accuracy and that’s a stat most winners tend to outperform on at this course.
While you can be carried by your irons, a classy short game and putter are almost a necessity and will likely be leaned more on players this week with the wind.
Murray only gained 2.0 strokes on approach, but gained an additional 4.8 strokes putting plus around-the-green combined. With the wind up this season, almost everyone will be missing more greens than usual so I wouldn’t be shocked to see more top players gaining around the green.
Last season the top six finishers all gained 1.4 strokes or more around the green, and four of the top six gained 2.0 strokes or more (via FantasyNational.com).
Betting Trends for the 2025 Sony Open
Below are the previous 5 winners of the Sentry and their pre-event odds from the beginning of the week of the event.
| Name | Year | Betting odds |
|---|---|---|
| Grayson Murray | 2024 | +25000 |
| Si Woo Kim | 2023 | +4000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 2022 | +1800 |
| Kevin Na | 2021 | +6600 |
| Cameron Smith | 2020 | +6000 |
Grayson Murray was the first true longshot we have had win at this event in a while, but he wasn’t the first. Fabian Gomez (2016) and Johnson Wagner (2012) are a couple of other veteran winners who went off at massive odds over the past 15 years.
Overall, this has been a very good event to target specific styles of players at mid-range odds (between +4000-10000). Si Woo Kim, Cameron Smith, and Kevin Na are very short-game/approach-driven players who tend to love these more condensed target-to-target courses.
Other recent winners like Matt Kuchar and Patton Kizzire, while more putter-based, also fall in this mix.
Betting Odds for the 2025 Sony Open
2025 The Sentry Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):
| Name | Odds | Last start |
|---|---|---|
| Hideki Matsuyama | 900 | Win - Sentry |
| Corey Conners | 1400 | T5 - Sentry |
| Tom Kim | 2000 | MC - Shriners |
| Russell Henley | 2000 | T30 - Sentry |
| Byeong Hun An | 2500 | T32 - Sentry |
| Keegan Bradley | 2500 | T15 - Sentry |
| Robert MacIntyre | 2800 | T15 - Sentry |
| Maverick McNealy | 2800 | T8 - Sentry |
| So Woo Kim | 3000 | T32 - Sentry |
| Sahith Theegala | 3000 | T36 - Sentry |
Picks for The 2025 Sony Open
Harris English
- Each-Way Top-8 (1/5): +5500 (bet365)
- Top 20: +260
English is another name I expect to benefit from the potentially windy conditions. He has one of the best short games in the business—a part of his game that has carried him to two top-five finishes at the US Open—and has played this venue 12 times in the past, posting four top-10 finishes, including last season (T10).
His short game was in fine form over the fall where he posted top-10 finishes at the Shriners and Black Desert but his off-the-tee game also took a tick up. English gained strokes OTT in all five of his last five fall events, a great sign that he may be close to a breakthrough week given that part of his game is usually the last to fall into place.
With his price having drifted to as big as +6000 on DraftKings, I don’t see any reason not to target him for both placing and outright this week. He’s the exact kind of veteran we have seen outperform at this venue in past seasons, and his recent form hasn’t been baked into his price much, if at all.
Cameron Davis
- Outright: +6000 (DraftKings)
- Top 10: +550
- Top 20: +250
Cam Davis an uber-talented Australian who I expect will eventually bag a couple of titles at these more classic courses. He’s performed well at Waialae before, posting a T9 here back in 2020, and also has top-10 finishes at Hilton Head (x2), TPC Sawgrass, and Colonial.
The world No. 48 played a little over in Australia this fall and looked in solid form last week in Maui, where he gained over 1.5 strokes on approach and 4.0 strokes with his putter. He’s also a very underrated around-the-green player who has gained over 2.0 strokes around-the-green in five of his last nine starts and should be more acclimatized to the hot and dry conditions than most.
Overall, I don’t see much difference in upside between Davis and the names just below him in price which makes him a player I want a piece of this week at his current numbers.
Daniel Berger
- Each-Way Top-8 (1/5): +5000 (bet365)
- Top 20: +240
You have to love the prices we’re getting on Berger this week, as he’s still available at +5500 for an outright and +5000 for an each-way top a top-8 on bet365.
The four-time PGA winner has looked more and more like his old self of late, posting two top-10 finishes, including a T2 at the RSM Classic to close out his season.
Still, even with the improved consistency he’s not being priced like he normally would have been at this event if not for the length injury layoff he endured in 2023. Berger has also tended to destroy these sorts of classic par 70 layouts, grabbing two wins at TPC Southwind and one at both Colonial and Pebble Beach—which despite being a par 72 still has great similarities to Waialae.
Berger’s putting started to show improvement late in the year and if that club shows up here, he could challenge in what should be advantageous conditions for the normally very accurate 31-year-old. Overall, I want to take advantage of these prices on Berger while they’re still available and love the each-way to top-8 available on bet365 at +5000 (as of writing).
Sepp Straka
- Outright: +6000 (DraftKings)
- Top 10: +550
- Top 20: +240
Straka got off to a solid start last week and looked like he might challenge for a top-five at one point, but had a poor Sunday. Still, the Austrian looked dialed in with his approaches at points during the four rounds and gained over 5.0 strokes around the green in Maui, a great sign that his game might be ready for this more classic test, and the uber-windy conditions.
Even with his price drifting into the 60s this week, Straka still looks underpriced to me considering how often he tends to get himself in contention on these tighter courses. He’s now posted wins at both TPC Deere Run and PGA National along with top 10 finishes at Hilton Head (x2), TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind, and Colonial all since the start of 2022.
You could look to play him for an each-way at a shorter number, but his odds on DraftKings have drifted up to +6000 in the outright market so laddering him through the top 20 market makes sense as well.
David Lipsky
- Top 5: +5500 (DraftKings)
- Top 10: +2000
- Top 20: +800
I’ve Stanned for Lipsky a lot over the last four months or so and he’s delivered a couple of big placings. The American recorded three top 10s over the fall series, including a T9 at the Bermuda Championship in his last start, on another short, ocean-side venue.
While you don’t want to overstay your welcome with a player like Lipsky, he’s shown a lot of improvement in his short game of late and is a great short-iron player, who finished T4 at this venue back in 2023. His prices are also still massive around the industry with DraftKings having him set at +800 for a top 20 and +2000 for a top 10.
I each-way’d him at +16000 on bet 365 to eight places but even just taking the massive +5500 on DraftKings for a top five will get you a huge payout. If we get a second massive longshot winner in a row at this event, it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if the 36-year-old is the one to deliver the goods.
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