In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
There has been a lot of talk about the College Football playoffs in this newsletter. Rightfully so. With the expansion to the 12-team format, we’ll finally have the closest thing to a definitive answer to which team is the best in college football.
That said, most of the attention has been spent on the “haves.” How many teams will the SEC get into the field? Can the Big Ten get four spots? Are both Miami and Clemson guaranteed to make it out of the ACC?
Instead, I want to spend today focusing on the “have-nots.” While the power conferences can debate over how many teams they deserve, the Group of Five conferences—The AAC, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, and the Sun Belt—are left with just one spot between them. That sure was nice for the big guys to throw the little schools a bone.
It means that if you want to make the playoffs out of one of those conferences and make your case for being the best team in the nation, you basically need to be perfect. There are no do-overs; one loss and you’re probably on the outside looking in.
While Friday’s matchup between Boise State and UNLV provided some answers, the showdown between Navy and Notre Dame is arguably more important. Not only will Navy get to make its case that it deserves the G5 bid, but another loss for the Fighting Irish likely leaves them on the outside looking in.
The Athletic currently has Notre Dame comfortably in the playoffs, giving it a 75% probability of making the field in its most recent round of simulations. That’s slightly more bullish than the betting markets, which have Notre Dame at roughly -160.
If Notre Dame falls out of the field, it opens up one more potential at-large berth for someone in the SEC or Big Ten, so expect all eyes from bubble teams in those conferences to be on MetLife Stadium.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know for Notre Dame vs. Navy and two other marquee matchups for CFB Week 9.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The best college games for your viewing pleasure on Saturday
- Thor Nystrom’s best bets for CFB Week 9
- Watercooler: Back Shohei Ohtani for World Series MVP?
The Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 9
by Matt LaMarca
LSU at Texas A&M (-1.0)—7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
LSU at Texas A&M fills our weekly quota of SEC matchups involving potential playoff squads. Both of these teams started the year in a disappointing fashion. LSU dropped its first game of the season vs. USC, while Texas A&M dropped its opener to Notre Dame. However, both schools have stormed back into contention since then, posting perfect records through the following seven weeks.
Both of these teams are on the outside of the current playoff picture, but whoever wins this week will definitely get in the mix. Of course, both teams still play in the SEC, which means that both schools still have to run the gauntlet. The Aggies still have a rivalry game vs. Texas on their schedule, while LSU has to play Alabama and Vanderbilt.
However, you can’t win ‘em all unless you win the first one. Whichever team takes home the victory in this matchup will technically be in first place in the SEC, with all other teams owning at least one conference loss. That makes them very live for a berth in the SEC championship, and a victory there would result in a first-round bye.
Penn State (-6) at Wisconsin—7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Upset alert at Camp Randall Stadium? Penn State has a huge showdown with Ohio State looming next week, and no one would blame the Nittany Lions if they were looking past Wisconsin slightly. But if the Nittany Lions aren’t careful, Wisconsin could catch them napping.
Wisconsin suffered a pair of defeats earlier this year to USC and Alabama, but it has stomped its past three opponents. The Badgers beat Purdue by 46 points, Rutgers by 35, and Northwestern by 20, so they enter this matchup with momentum.
Penn State has cruised through a relatively easy schedule to start the year, with last week’s comeback win over USC standing out as the lone exception. They have a top-15 defense and a top-10 offense nationally, so they should be able to take care of business.
But anything can happen in college football, especially when you have to go on the road. It should shock no one if Wisconsin gets the job done.
Notre Dame (-13.5) vs. Navy—Noon ET on ABC
These two teams played in Ireland last year, and Notre Dame absolutely humiliated Navy. They beat them 42-3, and the two schools didn’t look like they belonged on the same field.
The big question is – has anything changed heading into 2024?
Navy is currently undefeated, and the Midshipmen cracked the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2019. This doesn’t seem like the same Navy squad. It’s still relying heavily on the triple-option—the offense has averaged just under 275 rushing yards per game—but the Midshipmen are also capable of completing a downfield pass. They’ve averaged more than 161 passing yards per game, which is miles better than in previous seasons. The last time they were ranked inside the top 25, they averaged just 95.2 passing yards per game.
We’ll see if that makes a difference this time around. The Fighting Irish are still heavily favored in a neutral-site game, and they’ve won 11 of the past 12 meetings. When Notre Dame is good, it simply has more talent than Navy can handle. But maybe—just maybe—this is the year that finally changes.
What About The Rest of the Slate?
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
☕️ Rise and grind. The Week 9 College Football Pregame Show kicks off Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.
⚾ Eat the chalk with Shohei Ohtani or look for a longshot? MVP Odds for the 2024 World Series.
❌ A tradition unlike any other: Charles Barkley playing “Who He Play For” and not remembering Garrett Temple.
💰 We all need more winners in our lives. Freedman’s best bets for NFL Week 8.
🎃 The Bellofatto Build is officially back. This week’s theme? A spooky parlay for NFL Week 8.
🥊 It’s Topuria vs. Holloway headlining UFC 308 in Abu Dhabi.
Best Bets for College Football Week 9
by Thor Nystrom
Below is one of my best bets for this weekend in College Football Week 9, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.
Because the College Football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately—as they happen—into our college football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.
Note: “Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections.
Onto the picks!
Miami vs. Florida State
Adjusted Thor Line: Miami -23.6
Another week, another Florida State fade. Incredibly, we’re showing line value on Miami in a game the Hurricanes will be incentivized to run it up.
In the past few weeks, we’ve found out why FSU HC Mike Norvell wouldn’t bench DJ Uiagalelei in September. Brock Glenn, Uiagalelei’s injury replacement (broken finger), has been objectively worse. Glenn is completing 4% less of his passes and averaging one yard less per dropback while taking more sacks per pressure than Uiagalelei did.
Also noteworthy was the revelation in the Duke game that true freshman FSU QB Luke Kromenhoek—the fourth-ranked quarterback in the Class of 2024—is not ready to play yet. Nobody is coming to save Florida State.
Norvell named Glenn the starter for FSU. What we’ve seen is what we’re going to get. FSU has the No. 96 SP+ offense. That offense is not efficient or explosive. It turns the ball over regularly. The focus has been the putrid quarterback play, but FSU is also bereft of skill talent, and the offensive line has been horrible (No. 131 yards before contact and dead last in the FBS in pressure rate allowed).
Miami’s defense is a havoc machine, ranking No. 2 in that metric. The Hurricanes are No. 15 in sacks per dropback and No. 17 in INT%. That’s a double-edged sword—the Achilles heel of that Miami defense is allowing explosive plays (No. 132 marginal explosiveness).
It’s just that FSU’s offense doesn’t generate explosive plays. Glenn is 0-for-7 on passes beyond 20 yards (to be fair, two were dropped, which goes back to FSU’s lack of skill talent). Lawrance Toafili’s longest run since Roydell Williams got injured was for 12 yards.
On the other side of the ball, Miami’s No. 1-ranked SP+ offense is going to do whatever it wants. QB Cam Ward will tee off on an FSU pass defense that ranks No. 111 EPA/pass. The only aspect of FSU’s defense that has been strong this year has been the pass rush. Miami can slow that down. Ward’s escapability and pocket awareness will help. The Hurricanes have been tremendous at avoiding negatives, ranking No. 3 in havoc allowed.
Against a down rival, this is a prime opportunity for Miami to score style points for the CFP committee. We expect a boat race.
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