The AFC East is slated to be one of the best divisions in all of football, thanks to many moving pieces in the offseason. Here I will break down what all four teams did in the offseason and how I believe that will translate to the field and sportsbooks this season.
The New England Patriots had controlled the AFC East for a long time, winning the division from 2003-2019. Josh Allen has flipped the script on that narrative as the Bills have been crowned champions for three consecutive years.
Miami will look to win their first divisional title since 2008 when they went 11-5. The Jets, meanwhile, bring in a newly constructed roster headlined by future hall-of-fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers as they attempt to win for the first time since 2002 when Chad Pennington and Curtis Martin led them.
Let's meet the teams and dive into my breakdown for this year.
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Buffalo Bills
- +120 to win AFC East
- Implied Wins: 10.5 (-150)
- Key Additions: Trent Sherfield (WR), Damien Harris (RB), Connor McGovern (RG)
- Key Departures: Tremaine Edmunds (LB), Isaiah McKenzie (WR), Jamison Crowder (WR), Devin Singeltary (RB)
Buffalo enters the 2023 season as the favorite to come out of the AFC East. They’ve been the favorite in the past two seasons, and they have done what the books expected them to do: win the division.
Dec 17, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass tp wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) as guard Rodger Saffold (76) blocks Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Zach Sieler (92) in the third quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
However, the Bills' regular season success has not translated to the postseason. Buffalo was beaten badly by Cincinnati in the playoffs last year and, during the prior season, lost a heartbreaker to the Chiefs in overtime in the divisional round. But let’s focus on their regular season success.
Pick: Buffalo Bills under 10.5 wins (+120)
I know that this bet will not be my most popular, but let me tell you why I feel as if the Bills will struggle to reach eleven wins this season. First things first, this may be the best division in football. I expect these teams to beat up on each other. It would not surprise me if the Bills end this season 3-3 or worse in the AFC East.
Josh Allen is one of my favorite players in the NFL and one of the best QBs in football, but turnovers were a real issue for Allen a season ago. Allen finished the season with a league-high nineteen turnovers. And now, he has to face some of the best defenses in his division. Lastly, Buffalo has one of the toughest schedules in all of football. Their opponents had a combined winning percentage of .542 last season, and some of their toughest games are away from home. The value here is too strong for me to pass up.
New York Jets
- +270 to win AFC East
- Implied Wins: 9.5 -130
- Key Additions: Aaron Rodgers (QB), Chuck Clark (S), Allen Lazard (WR), Mecole Hardman (WR), Will McDonald (DE)
- Key Departures: Sheldon Rankins (DL), Mike White (QB), Elijah Moore (WR), Braxton Berrios (WR)
New York enters this season with their highest expectations in over a decade. The main reason for that is the addition of future Hall of Fame signal-caller Aaron Rodgers. New York has stolen the offseason headlines as they added Rodgers in a blockbuster trade in late April.
But the million-dollar question is, how good does this team become with the addition of Rodgers?
Well, if you look at last year, this move could make them one of the best teams in football. New York ranked fourth in scoring defense and still is one of the best defenses in the league, led by multiple stars, including rookie of the year cornerback Sauce Gardner.
As great as the defense was for the Jets, the offense was sometimes tough to watch. The Jets ended the year ranked 29th in the NFL in points per game, scoring an average of 17.4 per game.
Pick: New York Jets to win the Division (+270)
I am extremely high on this Jets team entering the season. New York has a high-end defense, and now, with the addition of Rodgers and some other offensive weapons, can be one of the more balanced teams in the NFL.
The trade for Rodgers has been well noted, but I also love what the Jets did in the offseason at the WR. They brought in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, who have experience playing with Rodgers from their days in Green Bay.
I also am high on the addition of Mecole Hardman, who is one of the fastest players in the league, and he will fit into this offense well. Lastly, we must remember second-year star Garret Wilson who should have great success paired with Rodgers. I will take a chance and bet on the Jets to win their first division title since 2002.
Miami Dolphins
- +300 to win AFC East
- Implied Wins: 9.5 +100
- Key Additions: Jalen Ramsey (CB), Braxton Berrios (WR), DeShon Elliot (S), Taylor Rapp (S), David Long Jr (LB)
- Key Departures: Mike Gesicki (TE), Elandon Roberts (LB)
The Dolphins enter the 2023 season with the third-best odds to win the AFC East. Miami was one of the best teams heading into December. The Dolphins jumped out to an 8-3 record, winning all of their games in November.
However, December was a nightmare for Miami. They dropped all four games to push their record to 8-7. Miami would eventually fall back to .500 when they lost to the Patriots on New Year's Day. But they closed the season strong, beating the Jets 11-6 in a wild final regular season matchup. Miami would go on to lose to the Bills 34-31 in the first round of the playoffs.
Dec 25, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) talks to his teammates prior to a play during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
The Dolphin's decline mainly occurred because their starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, missed multiple games. The health of Tua will be a key factor in the success of Miami this season, as they know if Tua can stay healthy, they will have a roster good enough to compete in this division.
Pick: Miami Dolphins under 3.5 divisional wins (-120)
I love what Miami did in the off-season. They added Jalen Ramsey, pairing him with Xavien Howard. You could make a legitimate case that the Dolphins have the best CB combination in the league. However, my issue with Miami is the health and performance of Tua.
Tua has dealt with injury issues since he was drafted by the Dolphins, and it is tough to trust a team that has so much pending on one player. Lastly, as I mentioned earlier, this is the best division, and winning four games in this division will be no easy task.
New England Patriots
- +800 to win Division
- Implied Wins: 7.5 +110
- Key Additions: Mike Gesicki (TE), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR), Riley Reiff (RT), James Robinson (RB)
- Key Departures: Jonnu Smith (TE), Nelson Agholor (WR), Jakobi Meyers (WR), Damien Harris (RB), Devin McCourty (S)
New England finds themselves in an unfamiliar position entering the year as they are the biggest dog to win the AFC East. Traditionally, the division has run through New England for the better part of the last fifteen years, but this team has many question marks surrounding them heading into the 2023 season.
The first big question is at QB. Mac Jones will likely begin the year as the team's starter, but this is a big year for Mac as the Patriots attempt to determine if he is the future of this franchise and if they can build around him.
Another question is can they protect Jones? Their struggles in protection forced them to run a lot of quick-game throws. And still, they allowed the 14th-most sacks last year (41).
Lastly, we will have to see how this team performs defensively and if they can sustain their success from a season ago, as they ranked 11th in scoring defense, giving up 20.3 points per game.
Pick: New England Patriots over 2.5 divisional wins (-105)
While I do not think this will be a playoff team, I feel this line is somewhat disrespectful to the Patriots at plus money. On paper, this is not one of Bill Belichick's most talented teams, but as we know, this is a tough team to beat in Foxborough any given year.
There is also a possibility that they catch one of these teams at a bad time and steal a game on the road. I expect New England to be a top-12 defense this year, which should keep them in a lot of contests. I will trust Belichick and the Patriots to squeak out three wins in the division.
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Get the rest of the divisional betting breakdowns here:
