The AFC North is often considered one of the most competitive divisions in the league. Some of the best rivalries come from this division, and this year, all four teams feel as if they can walk away as the champions of the North.
Since 2018, three of the four teams have each won the division at least once. The Bengals have been the Kings of the North over the past two seasons, led by star quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals will attempt to win their third straight division title while the Browns attempt to win their first since 1989.
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Cincinnati Bengals
- +150 to win AFC North
- Implied Wins: 11.5 (+110)
- Key Additions: Orlando Brown Jr (LT), Nick Scott (S), Myles Murphy (DE)
- Key Departures: Von Bell (S), Jessie Bates (S), Samaje Perine (RB)
It should be no surprise that the Bengals are the betting favorite coming into the 2023 campaign. As I alluded to earlier, they’ll attempt to win their third-straight divisional championship, and from a roster standpoint, it is tough to argue that any team is more talented.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) talks to the offense between reps during an off-season workout inside Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Wednesday, June 14, 2023.
Joe Burrow has breathed new life into this city since coming on board in 2020. Burrow led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in 2021 and back to the AFC championship last season, where they fell short to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Bengals had a somewhat quiet off-season which means this will be a very similar team to the one that we saw a season ago. It will be fun to see if Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase can continue their dominance against the rest of the league.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals under 11.5 wins (-130)
While I do think the Bengals will find their way back to the playoffs this year, getting to twelve wins will be no easy task. First things first, this is a tough division to play in, and I would not be surprised if the Bengals end the year 3-3 in the North. Plus, their schedule outside of the division is not all that easy, and some of their toughest games are on the road this year.
But my biggest concern for the Bengals comes in their secondary. Cincinnati did sign Nick Scott, who will come in and try to fill the shoes of star safety Jessie Bates. Von Bell also left the team in free agency, which means that the Bengals will be weaker on the back end this season.
This area of concern could give them problems as a defense. I believe the Bengals will end up winning ten or eleven games this year but stay under this number.
Baltimore Ravens
- +220 to win AFC North
- Implied Wins: 9.5 (-150)
- Key Additions: Zay Flowers (WR), Odell Beckham Jr (WR)
- Key Departures: Marcus Peters (CB), Chuck Clark (S), Jason Pierre- Paul (DE), Calais Campbell (DE), Justin Houston (LB)
In the off-season, Baltimore had a lot going on; the most notable move was inking a long-term contract with former MVP Lamar Jackson. There was a stretch of time in the off-season where it appeared that Jackson would not be a member of the Ravens this season, but the two sides came together and worked things out.
They also signed Odell Beckham Jr, who may be the most talented wide receiver at Jackson’s disposal. Beckham Jr missed last season with an injury, but if he is healthy, this could be a lethal combo. Baltimore also drafted Boston College standout Zay Flowers, who should immediately impact the offense.
But Baltimore had a lot of turnover on defense as they moved on from five veterans. Some of them struggled last year, as this will open up opportunities for younger players. If their defense can perform at a high level this season, this is a team that feels like they can make some noise.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens over 9.5 wins (-150)
Baltimore is a team that I am high on entering the year. On the offensive side of things, the Ravens have finally gifted Lamar Jackson with multiple high-level wide receivers. I believe that Jackson is going to have an MVP-level season.
The contract stuff is now behind Jackson, and he can shift all of his focus to the field and be his dominant self once again. I do have some questions about the defense of the Ravens, but I trust that they will be good enough to keep them in games.
Lastly, Baltimore has one of the easiest schedules, as their opponents had a combined win percentage of just .484 last season.
Cleveland Browns
- +425 to win AFC North
- Implied Wins: 9.5 (+130)
- Key Additions: Juan Thornhill (S), Elijah Moore (WR), Dalvin Tomlinson (DT), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (DE)
- Key Departures: John Johnson III (S), Jadevon Clowney (DE), Kareem Hunt (RB)
Cleveland enters the new season hopeful of bouncing back from a poor showing in 2022. The Browns made one of the more significant moves around the league last year when they traded for all-pro quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Watson was suspended for most of the season and made just six starts for the Browns. When he was on the field, he did not look like the quarterback we saw in Houston. Watson recorded a record of 3-3, throwing seven interceptions in that span.
The Browns had a fairly quiet off-season and will return a lot of similar faces from a season ago. The city is starving for success, and it will be interesting to see how the Browns perform.
Pick: Cleveland Browns Under 9.5 wins (-135)
My projections have this number closer to seven than ten, so this play is a no-brainer for me. Cleveland did virtually nothing to get better in the off-season, and I expect them to perform very much as they did a season ago.
This is still a bad defense that is going to struggle to get stops and keep their team in a game. This was the 17th-ranked defense in points allowed last year, and their offense is not good enough to win in shootouts.
I was not impressed with what I saw from Deshaun Watson in a decent sample size last year, so I will be fading the Cleveland Browns’ win total.
Pittsburgh Steelers
- +450 to win AFC North
- Implied Wins: 8.5 (-135)
- Key Additions: Joey Porter Jr (CB), Patrick Peterson (CB), Issac Seumalo (OG), Elandon Roberts (LB), Broderick Jones (OT)
- Key Departures: Robert Spillane (LB), Devin Bush Jr (LB), Cameron Sutton (CB)
Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin continued his excellence last year when he led the Steelers to yet another winning season. Tomlin has never had a losing season since taking over the Steelers in 2007.
On paper, this may be the least talented team in the North, although I would argue that they are better than the Browns. Last year, we got our first look at former Pitt standout Kenny Pickett, Pickett took over as the starter midway through the season, and he looked like a guy that the Steelers can plan a future around.
Jan 8, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) greets fans following a 28-14 win over the Cleveland Browns at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
In typical Steelers fashion, they were tough on the defensive side of the football as they ranked 11th in the league in scoring defense, surrendering 20.4 points per game. The Steelers are optimistic that their defense can be even better than that this season.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins (-155)
I love the makeup of this Steelers team, and I feel as if the sportsbooks are undervaluing them entering the season. It is important to note that Pittsburgh won nine games last season when Kenny Pickett was not the day-one starter.
The Steelers will now get a full season of Pickett under center, and Pickett will enter the year with more experience under his belt.
Pittsburgh will be bringing in some studs on the defensive side of the ball, which will make them a better defense than they were a season ago. I was also a big fan of what the Steelers did in the draft, most notably adding cornerback Joey Porter Jr to their roster.
I will buy low on this Steelers team and trust Mike Tomlin to have yet another winning NFL season.
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