The AFC South has been one of the most inconsistent divisions over the last decade. Since 2014 all four of these teams have won the division at least one time.
The team with the most AFC South championships over the last decade has been the Houston Texans. The Texans are a much different team now and have the longest odds to come out of the South.
The favorite in the division is the reigning champion Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags shocked the division a season ago as second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence put the team on his back, leading them to their first championship since 2017.
The Colts and the Titans shared disappointing years a season ago, and both are hopeful that they can flip the script and compete in the South this season.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
- -165 to win AFC South
- Implied Wins: 9.5 (-135)
- Key Additions: Henry Mondeaux (DL), Michael Dogbe (DE)
- Key Departures: Arden Key (DE), Jawaan Taylor (OT)
Believe it or not, Jacksonville enters the season seen as the second-largest division favorite behind only the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Trevor Lawrence took a big step forward last season and looked like the former first-overall pick he was drafted to be. The Jags turned up the heat late in the season and took care of business in the final week beating the Titans to wrap up the division title. Jacksonville would go on to beat the Chargers in the first round of the playoffs and would eventually lose in the next round to Kansas City.
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson and Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) greet each other after Saturday night's victory over the Tennessee Titans, clinching the AFC South title. The Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Tennessee Titans to decide the AFC South championship at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL, Saturday, January 7, 2023. The Jaguars went into the half trailing 7 to 13 but came back to win with a final score of 20 to 16. Jki 010723 Bs Jaguars Vs Titans 09
It is tough to argue that this is not the most talented team in the division, and the Jags possess the best quarterback. The South is seen as the worst division in the league, and it will be fun to see how the Jags navigate through their schedule this season.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South (-165)
I rarely pay any juice on a team to win a division, let alone one priced at -150. The thing is that there is no team in this division nearly as talented as Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence is a guy I believe in, and I feel he can be a top-five quarterback by the end of the season. It was clear a season ago how comfortable Lawrence is with Doug Pederson, and that connection will only get stronger this season.
I trust this Jags defense who came up with many special plays a season ago. The Jags ranked 12th in points allowed per game, giving up 20.6, and that number will only improve this season with essentially the same defense.
Lastly, this is just a bad division. The Colts and Texans may be two of the worst teams in the league, and the Titans still have a lot of question marks surrounding them. I will confidently say that the Jags win four games in the division with a strong possibility of winning five.
Tennessee Titans
- +425 to win AFC South
- implied Wins: 7.5 (+110)
- Key Additions: Arden Key (DE) Azzez-Al-Shaair (LB), Luke Gifford (LB), Sean Murphy-Bunting (CB), Andre Dillard (OT)
- Key Departures: Robert Woods (WR), Austin Hooper (TE), Joshua Dobbs (QB), Dennis Daley (LT), Kevin Strong (DT), Nate Davis (OG), Demarcus Walker (DE), David Long Jr (LB)
The Titans entered the 2022 season as the favorites to win the South, but injuries held them back. Starting QB Ryan Tannehill sustained a serious injury late in the year, which forced former first-round pick Malik Willis into action.
Willis struggled when his opportunity came leading to coach Mike Vrabel calling on Tennessee native Joshua Dobbs. Dobbs was not much better, and on the final week of the season, the Titans lost to the Jags, which ended their season.
Nov 27, 2022; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel (left) and quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) talk before the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
The Titans had an eventful offseason as some of their best players on the defensive side have moved on and left the team. The Titans did make some solid moves in free agency, adding former Jaguar Arden Key and veteran corner Sean Murphy Bunting.
The biggest concern for me entering the year is their need for more skill-position players. This was a serious issue for Tennessee last season, as they need more threats outside of Derrick Henry. The Titans did not sign any wide receivers or tight ends to help create offense in the off-season.
Pick: Tennessee Titans over 5.5 wins -265 (DraftKings)
This is the most juice that I have ever laid on a futures bet, but this line should be in the range of -450/500. I know the Titans are not as good entering the season as they have been in years past, but they can go 6-11 this year.
Tennessee has a favorable schedule because they get to play two of the league’s worst teams (the Colts and the Texans) four times. Overall, the Titans have the fifth-easiest schedule entering the year, as their opponents had an average win record of .448 in 2021.
I am not saying that I expect this team to win the division or make the playoffs, but historically, Mike Vrabel has been excellent against this number. Last year was Vrabel's first losing season as an NFL head coach, and he still cleared this number with ease ending 7-10.
Indianapolis Colts
- +550 to win AFC South
- Implied Wins: 6.5 (-135)
- Key Additions: Anthony Richardson (QB), Taven Bryan (DT), Isaiah McKenzie (WR), Samson Ebukam (DE), Garder Minshew (QB), Matt Gay (K)
- Key Departures: Parris Campbell (WR), Bobby Okereke (LB), Brandon Facyson (CB), Matt Pryor (OT), Stephon Gilmore (CB)
The Colts come into the year with a lot of change in the off-season. The Colts fired former head coach Frank Reich and brought in the Eagles’ Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen.
June 14, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) gives a high-five Wednesday, June 14, 2023, to Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) during mandatory minicamp at the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center in Indianapolis. Mandatory Credit: Mykal McEldowney-USA TODAY Sports
Steichen will get the opportunity to work with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson who the Colts drafted fifth overall. Richardson enters the NFL with an extremely high ceiling, but we shouldn’t be surprised if he begins the year as the backup quarterback and takes some time to learn how to run an NFL offense.
The Colts will enter this season with little to no expectations as they hope to improve on a 4-12-1 record from last year. They’re in total rebuild mode, and as a fan, the most intriguing part is Anthony Richardson, who I hope gets an opportunity early in the season.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts under 6.5 wins (+115)
I want it to be noted that I am extremely high on Richardson entering this season, and I rated him as my number one quarterback coming out of the draft. The issue for the Colts is I do not know how many games he plays, and I do feel as if it will take him some time to adjust to the NFL.
The main issue with this Colts team is their defense. The Colts had the fourth-worst scoring defense in 2022, as they allowed 25.1 points per game. And Indianapolis’ defense might have gotten even worse in the off-season. So with an offense that will likely struggle to put up points, this is a recipe for disaster.
Houston Texans
- +800 to win AFC South
- Implied Wins: 6.5 (+110)
- Key Additions: CJ Stroud (QB), Will Anderson Jr (DE), Devin Singeltary (RB), Hassan Ridgeway (DE), Cory Littleton (LB), Noah Brown (WR), Sheldon Rankins (DL), Jimmie Ward (S), Shaq Mason (OG), Chase Winovich (DE), Dalton Schultz (TE) Robert Woods (WR)
- Key Departures: Phillip Dorsett (WR), Brandin Cooks (WR), Jordan Aikns (TE), OJ Howard (TE), Justin McRay (OG), Obo Okoronkwo (DE), Tremon Smith (CB), Kyle Allen (QB)
The Texans enter the season fresh off of a 3-13 campaign and their record over the last three seasons combined is 11-38. But they are hopeful to flip the script on their losing narrative this season, and the organization feels as if they drafted the man for the job.
CJ Stroud will take over and try and breathe new life into the organization that enjoyed so much success before the Deshaun Watson trade. Also, Demeco Ryans will be entering his first season as the head coach of the Texans. Ryans enjoyed success in San Francisco leading the best defense in all of football a season ago. But this team still needs time to develop into a legit competitor.
Pick: Houston Texans under 6.5 wins (-130)
I was surprised to see the Texans over under at this high of a number. This will be the fourth year in the Texan's rebuild phase, and they finally feel as if they found their franchise quarterback in CJ Stroud.
While Stroud will enjoy success in his NFL career, seven wins in his first year is asking a lot. That also assumes that new head coach Demo Ryans hands Stroud the keys in Week 1.
This is a Texans roster that has a ton of turnover, as you can see above, and while I love some of the off-season moves and what they did in the draft, I still feel as if it will be tough for this Texans team to find a way to win seven games this season.
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