The AFC West is a division that Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have dominated.
Kansas City has won seven consecutive division titles and the books have the Chiefs slated to finish atop the division once again this year.
There will be three teams attempting to dethrone Kansas City. Two of them have not won the division in quite some time, as the Chargers will attempt to win their first divisional championship since 2009, while the Raiders will go for their first since 2002.
Denver, meanwhile, will look to rebound from a disappointing season in 2022 as they bring in new head coach Sean Payton.
Let's meet the teams and get into the best bets!
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Kansas City Chiefs
- -165 to win AFC West
- Implied Wins: 11.5 (-140)
- Key Additions: Jawaan Jennings (OT), Drue Tranquill (LB), Charles Omenihu (DE)
- Key Departures: Frank Clark (DE), Orlando Brown JR (OT), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR), Andrew Wylie (RT), Mecole Hardman (WR)
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Kansas City enters the season as the super bowl favorite. The Chiefs will have an opportunity to repeat this season as they bring back a large portion of their super bowl winning team.
The most important piece is Mahomes, who has quickly inserted himself into the best quarterback ever conversation after winning his second Super Bowl ring.
Kansas City had a relatively quiet off-season and the most significant question mark with this team this season is going to once again be how well they perform on the defensive side of the football.
We all know that Mahomes and the Chiefs will not have issues scoring the ball and if their defense can perform at a similar level to last year, the sky is the limit for this team.
Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (right) and tight end Travis Kelce celebrate with the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles during Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Pick: Chiefs under 4.5 divisional wins -110
This is one of my favorite futures entering the year, and this play is not for the faint of heart. It is tough to argue how dominant this Chiefs team is, but this play is more a product of how good this division will be.
The Chargers are a tough team to beat two times, and I am extremely high on the Broncos. I believe that those teams could split with the Chiefs, and you never know what can happen in their two games with the Raiders.
This number feels a tick too high, so I will be locking in the under.
Los Angeles Chargers
- +340 to win AFC West
- Implied Wins: 9.5 (-115)
- Key Additions: Eric Kendricks (LB), Quentin Johnston (WR)
- Key Departures: Drue Tranquill (LB), Joe Gizano (DL)
The biggest addition for the Chargers in the off-season was not on the field, but it came in the form of their new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore.
Moore was previously the OC of the Dallas Cowboys and had put together multiple successful seasons.
Many people around the league believed that Moore would be on his way to a head coaching job, but for now, he will get to work with one of the best quarterbacks in football, Justin Herbert.
Like the Chiefs, the biggest question mark entering the season will be how well the Chargers play on the defensive side.
Los Angeles ranked third in the NFL in yards per game last season and should rank toward the top of the league again this year.
As we all saw in the playoffs, the defense was just not consistent enough for the Chargers. If they want to be a legitimate contender, they need to sharpen up this year.
Pick: Chargers over 9.5 wins (-115)
The sky's the limit for this Chargers offense who showed us how dominant they can be a season ago.
The addition of Kellen Moore will be a significant one, and I expect the play of Herbet to be even better this year, which is a scary sight for opposing defenses.
This is almost the same exact Chargers team that we saw a season ago, which was able to win ten games a season ago. As I mentioned before, the million-dollar question will be - how consistent can this defense be?
If they are able to stay healthy, we know that from a talent perspective that this can be one of the best defenses in all of football.
I trust that the Chargers figure things out on defense this year and that the play of Herbert will continue to evolve.
Denver Broncos
- +550 to win AFC West
- Implied Wins: 8.5 (-110)
- Key Additions: Mike McGlinchey (RT), Tremon Smith (CB), Ben Powers (LG), Marquez Callaway (WR), Samaje Perine (RB), Marvin Mims (WR)
- Key Departures: Calvin Anderson (LT), Eric Saubert (TE) DeShawn Williams (DT), Freddie Swain (WR)
The Denver Broncos enter the 2023 season looking to put a tough year in the rearview mirror. Things could not have gone much worse in year one of the Russell Wilson era and at the end of the season, it resulted in the Broncos moving on from first-year Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett. Denver went out and replaced Hackett with future hall-of-fame head coach Sean Payton.
The addition of Payton is significant, as the Denver faithful are hopeful that this move will breathe new life into Wilson, who's a former MVP and Super Bowl champion (that looked like a shell of himself last year, to say the least).
Denver feels that they got much better in the off-season, and it will be intriguing to see if that translates to the field this year.
Pick: Broncos to win the AFC West (+550), Broncos over 8.5 wins (-110)
I know that this pick will make many people scratch their heads, but this is all about the value. Denver could not have been more disappointing a season ago and now this feels like the perfect buy-low spot.
Sean Payton will look to come into Denver and make Russell Wilson look like an MVP again, after consistently producing top-ten offenses.
It is also important to note that the Broncos bring in a new offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, who led the Chargers' offense over the last two seasons and his style of offense should favor how Wilson likes to play.
Additionally, Denver quietly had one of the best offseasons in all of football as they added multiple starters to this roster.
Most notably, the Broncos signed Mike McGlinchey, who is considered one of the best tackles in all of football. This is significant for an offensive line that struggled to protect Wilson.
Another critical addition for the Broncos is defensive end Zach Allen, who came over from the Cardinals. Allen had 5.5 sacks last season and should help this Broncos' pass rush.
The final point I will make is that Denver has one of the best defenses in the league, finishing third in points allowed per game in 2021.
They took a step back last season, finishing 13th in points allowed per game at 21.1, but a lot of that had to do with their offense putting them in short-field situations.
Las Vegas Raiders
- +1200 to win AFC West
- Implied Wins: 7.5 (+160)
- Key Additions: Jimmy Garopplo (QB), Austin Hooper (TE), Jakobi Meyers (WR), Cam Sims (WR), Robert Spillane (LB), Phillip Dorsett (WR), Jordan Williams (DE), David Long (CB), Marcus Epps (S), OJ Howard (TE)
- Key Departures: Darren Waller (TE), Derek Carr (QB), Clelin Ferrell (DE), Mack Hollins (WR), Sidney Jones (CB)
The Raiders have experienced quite a few disappointing years over the last two decades. The last time that the Raiders won the division was all the way back in 2002 when Rich Gannon led the Raiders to the title.
This year, Las Vegas comes in seen as a heavy underdog and it is tough to argue against that.
The Raiders have moved on from long-time quarterback Derek Carr, as the team traded Carr to the New Orleans Saints in the offseason. That trade opened up the quarterback position and the guy that is expected to fill the role this year is Jimmy Garoppolo.
Garoppolo has enjoyed a lot of success in his NFL career, but he has also had the luxury of being on some of the best teams in football. Seeing how Garoppolo handles being the guy on a bad roster in Las Vegas will be interesting.
Pick: Raiders under 7.5 wins (-190)
Yes, this pick is juicy and may be the most juice I sip on any prop this offseason, but I expect this to be sweat-free and for us to cash this bet in. Look at the roster and tell me how they will compete in this division.
They may struggle to win two games in the AFC West, and their schedule out of the division is not all that favorable. Overall the Raiders have the tenth-hardest schedule in football and I do not believe that this roster is deep enough to go out and win eight games this season.
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Get the rest of the divisional betting breakdowns here:
