In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Greetings fellow Football degenerates. If you’re reading this, you’ve officially survived past the quarter mark of the 2024-25 season; an accomplishment in its own right. And after the Chiefs held off the Saints, 26-13, on Monday Night Football, they join the Vikings in the land of unbeatens at 5-0.
Five games in and the season is still in its infancy (and the real fun hasn’t even started), but we’ve been through enough that we’ve all absorbed some body shots by now (and the bruises are starting to show).
For me, Week 5 was all about survival. I endured a plethora of bad beats (some born by bad decisions), but also managed to turn a nice profit in a couple of areas, mainly by sticking to my betting mantra of ALFE: Always Look For Edges.
If you’re a PrizePicks or Underdog regular, you know they offer expanded offerings on NFL props, which just happens to include player targets. I’ve been exploring that market using Fantasy Life’s player projections this season and have to say there were some great edges to be found (if you looked hard enough). In Week 5, I again put together a handful of tickets strictly from that market, using the biggest edges I could find, and, well, we connected.
Here’s one ticket with six of the biggest edges I found and played in that market (going strictly by our projections):
Look, we won’t run this hot every week, but using the ALFE method and combining that with the super-powered projections on Fantasy Life (courtesy of Dwain McFarland and Matthew Freedman), I was able to profit in a week that included me betting the Bengals (vomit), needing a Javonte Williams anytime TD (stuffed twice at the goal line) and having the over on Gardner Minshew passing yards (pulled third quarter).
As always, I’ll be loading up plenty more plays in our Pick’Em Tracker for Week 6 (and beyond) and will certainly be employing both ALFE and our projections when I do so.
On to Week 6, and a completely insane Denver Broncos future you NEED to make …
NFL Week 6 is here. Compare the best prices across all major sportsbooks.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- NFL Week 6: Be Bullish on the Broncos
- NHL Prop Drop: A Chicago Winger to Target
Is Denver Legit?—How to Play the Broncos in Week 6 (and beyond?!)
by Geoff Ulrich
I’ve watched all of Denver’s games this season on tape or live. They are not what I’d call a “fun team.” They’re 28th in yards per play and 31st in first downs gained per game. Bo Nix is 29th in EPA per play at QB, and their offense is 29th in success rate per dropback. Nix is also QB21 in fantasy points per game.
Still, they’ve run the ball effectively in spots (somewhat thanks to Nix’s added mobility), and their defense is an elite unit that’s 3rd in EPA per play—and has been the only defense to date capable of shutting down Baker Mayfield (25-for-33, 163 yards, and 1 INT in Week 3).
After last week’s dismantling of the Raiders, which was their most impressive win to date, the Broncos are now 3-2 and in sole possession of second place in the AFC West; with a showdown against the 2-2 Chargers looming in Week 6.
Looking at this matchup, my first inclination was to sell high on Denver going into a divisional game against a seasoned head coach and a former rookie of the year at QB. However, after diving deeper, I’m taking the opposite stance, and staying bullish on Denver.
Broncos/Chargers: Twinsies
Denver is set as a +3.0 home underdog this week, but I’m not sure that represents the true gap between these two teams. The truth is, outside of Justin Herbert > Bo Nix, I don’t see any discernible advantage for the Chargers, who are coming off a bye week but also now have to travel East to the thin air of Denver.
The Chargers’ defense (2nd in EPA per play) is a legit scary unit in its own right, but with Denver’s defense stacked with talent and ranked right behind them in efficiency metrics, it’s essentially a stalemate on that side of the ball.
Offensively, most people looking at this matchup from the outside would side with the Chargers, and this is where I likely diverge with the market the most. Yes, the Chargers have Herbert, but his foot issue from training camp and his ankle injury from Week 2 have hampered him to date, and he comes in ranked just 27th in EPA per play on the season.
If we’re being honest, just given the fact both of these teams love the short passing game (Herbert is 28th in yards per attempt, Nix is 31st), Nix’s mobility (23.8 yards per game rushing) may be more valuable from a scheme perspective for Denver.
The Bets: Broncos vs. Chargers (+3.0); Broncos to win the AFC West (+1800; bet365)
When I look at these two teams, I see twins separated at birth (or the NFL’s version of the Spider-man meme, take your pick).
Both have veteran head coaches who are doing all they can with limited explosiveness on offense to not lose games while leaning on their elite defensive units to prop them up. Herbert is the biggest X-factor in this game (and provides the biggest edge for the Chargers, if healthy), but he’s been turned into a game manager in this offense and now faces a Denver unit secondary that has allowed 5.1 yards per attempt (3rd best in the league).
I fully expect Herbert to lean on the expert route running of Ladd McConkey in this spot, and when our Week 6 projections come out I’ll be looking to play his overs (total dependent) and buy into any Denver secondary fear. However, even if McConkey plays well, the Chargers lack a mismatch like TE Brock Bowers (8-97-1), who can put the Broncos’ secondary on its heels.
Unless Nix, who posted his best game of the year last week, melts down I see a close, low-scoring game forming. I already placed a Denver +3.0 bet in our Free NFL Bet Tracker and would also consider playing them on the moneyline if this number were to drop below 3.0 at some point.
Can the Broncos play King-Killer?
But wait, why settle there? Even with the Chiefs win, the Broncos are still right in the AFC West title race, as they have two games against KC remaining. People forget, but Sean Payton’s crew held the Chiefs to under 20 points in both games last year and were one of only six teams to beat KC in 2023-24.
Using our NFL Futures Tool, we can see the Broncos are now as big as +2200
(ESPN Bet) to win the AFC West. With the Chiefs so reliant on one player (Mahomes) and Denver’s defense a legitimate top-3 unit, I see no reason why the gap between KC and Denver is this big.
It’s a small investment, big reward kind of bet, but with none of the Broncos’ potential upside being baked into these current prices, there is little downside to it either.
College Football Bettors: Project every Week 7 spread, total, and more with our CFB Game Betting Model, where we find the best edges on the college football slate FOR YOU!
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report is the premier authority on how players are being deployed.
🤬 Ulrich and LaMarca take a walk down Bad Beat Street, rehashing Week 5’s tough losses.
📈 Who’s tops between Ohio State and Texas? Thor Nystrom has his rankings ahead of Week 7.
🤔 The Chiefs are good, but when Taylor Swift is in da house they play all too well.
🚀 The Chiefs took Hunt and Juju out of the Cryo Chamber this week … and it worked. Best games in over three years for both.
NHL Prop Drop—Can Tyler Bertuzzi Make a Name For Himself in Chicago?
by Geoff Ulrich
The Blackhawks make their season debut tonight, as they’ll be the first opponent for the newly formed Utah Hockey Club (formerly the Arizona Coyotes), as they play their first game in front of their new fans. Utah has a lot of fun young talent—and I’m not necessarily going to be the bad guy who bets against a new team in its first game at home—but as a squad, they did have their flaws last season. Utah allowed the 9th most shots against last season and will face a Blackhawks top-six teaming with young talent, including Connor Bedard; who will start the season with newly signed Tyler Bertuzzi on his left wing.
Bertuzzi had a nice rebound season with Toronto last year, joining them after starting with Boston, and posted 25 goals last year. During the playoffs, he saw plenty of top-six ice time, averaging 18 minutes a game and 3.0 shots per game. With him set to play the wing on the top line with Bedard and be a part of the first power-play unit, you have to figure some out-sized opportunities are coming up for the 29-year-old who has juicy-looking props up on the early lines for this first game of the year.
The Bet: Tyler Bertuzzi over 2.5 SOG (+110; bet365)
I’ve already placed Bertuzzi over 2.5 shots on goal up in our Free NHL Bet Tracker and will likely take a small piece of his anytime goal prop as well (as long as it stays at +300 or better).
Playing with Bedard alone is a massive boost for a shoot-first player like Bertuzzi, but with the opponent being Utah, which allowed the 10th-most, high-danger scoring chances against last year, this is a great time to be aggressive with a player who has a massive early-season opportunity in front of him.
Check out our free NHL Futures Betting Odds.
