Anytime touchdown bets are a fun way to bet on football. Who doesn’t love cashing in on big plays and guys finding paydirt? At the same time, the overall TD market is often laden with poor-to-questionable pricing, as books generally have a big hold on many of the TD bets they offer. 

Still, there are pockets of value to be found in this kind of market and every week I’ll be going through trying to find the best TD props for you using the FantasyLife+ projections and prop finder tool, both of which allowed me to have a profitable 2023 season (+20.7u). 

Let’s dive into Week 1 and see what gems we can unearth for the first big slate of the season.

Kenneth Walker III anytime TD (-105; BetMGM)

I bet Kenneth Walker anytime TD scorer earlier in the week at +110. It’s logged in our Free NFL Bet tracker. If I’m being honest though, there may be enough value to bet this down closer to -130. The Seahawks have a 23.5-point team total. They’re at home. They’re playing the Broncos, who don’t have a great roster, and gave up 12 rushing TDs to RBs last season.

Moreso, Walker’s backup, Zach Charbonnet has been banged up most of the preseason and ran as the clear number two behind Walker in camp. Walker didn’t even play in the preseason, as they wanted to preserve him for the regular season, a great sign that he could be in a strict bellcow role in Week 1 with Charbonnet acting more as a relief back. If that usage comes to fruition, this prop is priced way too high given the opponent.

I also think the Seahawks offense outperforms this year given the move to Ryan Grubb as OC. Using our new prop finder tool, you can see Walker is still available at -105 on BetMGM, a still very appealing number for me. 

Zack Moss anytime TD (+150; BetMGM)

The Bengals are another team who are big home favorites this week. They have a 24.5-point implied team total and their star WR, Ja’Marr Chase, has yet to sign a new deal and could sit or be limited in this game.

Either way, the main carry and short-yardage running back on the Bengals is in a great spot to find the end zone given the matchup and how weak the Patriots roster is. 

The Patriots were second in EPA against the run as a defense last season, but I won’t be shocked if we see regression in that area with Bill Belichick no longer part of the coaching staff. Additionally, they still ceded 10 rushing TDs to the RB position in 2023 and figure to be giving up solid starting positions to their opponents on many drives

It remains to be seen how the backfield will shake out between Moss and Chase Brown, but for now, the larger Moss seems like a pretty solid lock to get the first crack at carries inside the 5-yard line.

He’s also not priced anywhere near what a lead back in this situation would normally be priced at as he can had for as big as +150 at BetMGM. Our FantasyLife+ projections this week also have Moss projected for 0.5 TDs (so scoring about half the time) which makes that number appealing as well.

Given that the books have priced him this high, it makes this a great time to make a small educated guess on his actual usage and add him to the list for our NFL props for Week 1. 

Tank Dell anytime TD (+275; bet365)

I’d rather be too early on Tank Dell's comeback season than too late. The Texans' star rookie (11 games: 15.1 ypc, 7 TDs) missed the last few games with a leg injury last year but made a full recovery and had, by all intents and purposes, a great camp. 

There are question marks about his usage declining with the addition of Stefon Diggs, but Dell is quite frankly, too good to keep off the field. He’s an elite separator who torched the Colts in just his second game in the league last season for 72 yards and a TD.

As long as he’s priced as the Texans WR with the longest TD odds, there is likely some value in playing his prop, and this week, his +275 odds (26% implied probability) are about 35% bigger than his career score rate of 60% (scored in six of 11 games last year). I’d play this down to +225.

Will Levis anytime TD (+600; FanDuel)

I think Will Levis is going to surprise a lot of people this season. Not only are the Titans likely to pass more, but I have a feeling we may see Levis take off with the ball more as a runner in 2024-25 and use his 6’4 230-pound frame more to his advantage. Last year, the Titans had Derrick Henry in the backfield as an option, which took out the need or desire to use Levis as a runner.

The former Kentucky star rushed for 11 TDs in his last 24 games in college and also ran an estimated 4.7-second 40-time, which puts him on the upper end of speed for his position. As of now, his +600 odds are almost double Caleb Williams’ odds, which just seems a touch out of whack as the spread in this game is getting close to a field goal.

Bottom line, if you’re looking for a long shot to play in the TD market this week, I like this price on Levis as it’s a potential buy-low spot on a player who could have significantly shorter anytime TD odds later in the year.