Don't finalize your betting slips without Geoff's Anytime Touchdown Prop Bets for Week 5:

TD props are a fun way to be football. Who doesn’t love cashing in on big plays and guys finding paydirt? At the same time, the overall anytime touchdown market is often laden with poor to questionable pricing as books generally have a big hold on many of the TD bets they offer.

There are also pockets of value to be found in this kind of market and every week I’ll be going through trying to find the best TD props for you using the FantasyLife+ projections and prop finder tool, which allows you to line shop for the best prices across all the major sportsbook in a flash.

Let’s dive into Week 5 and see what the FantasyLife+ tools can unearth for the next big slate of the season.

Week 5 Anytime TD Prop Bets

Chuba Hubbard Anytime TD (+140; DraftKings)

  • Play to +120

The Panthers got my message a couple of weeks back when I said they need to stop giving Miles Sanders work and just give Chuba Hubbard the damn ball. Over the last two games, with a competent QB at the helm, Hubbard has now taken 39 carries and been featured in the passing game, where he’s caught 9/9 targets and scored a receiving TD (to go along with a rushing TD last week).

As you can see from our Utilization Report on Fantasy Life, Hubbard’s opportunities have risen exponentially in the last couple of games and he took 10% of the Inside the 5 (I5) carries last week.

 

The great news this week is that with Carolina on the road and 3.5 underdogs, his TD prop is still as big as +140, which is good enough to play for me. The Bears have not been as impenetrable against the rush as they were last season and allowed a rushing TD to Kyren Williams last week (who we featured in this article). Overall, they’ve allowed five rushing TDs on the season to opposing RBs, which is only two less than they allowed the entire 2023-24 season (7).

Unless something changes with this offense (or they bring back Bryce Young) I’d just keep playing Hubbard’s anytime prop at these levels.

Javonte Williams Anytime TD (+185; DraftKings)

  • Play to +150

I think Javonte Williams is in for a big Week 5. The Broncos have been starving for one of their top three running backs to show they can move the ball effectively and Williams finally stepped up in Week 4 and provided the kind of effort they were looking for. He rushed 16 times for 77 yards (4.81 yards per carry) and continued to take 100% of the Broncos' short-down-and-distance (SDD) snaps–-a great indication he’ll be the goal-line back if they get down inside the five this Sunday against the Raiders.

 

Williams is also going to benefit from Tyler Badie (out) getting injured last week, who looked like a potential threat to take away some of his snaps, or even supplant him on the depth chart. Now, with no Badie in the lineup and the Raiders on the schedule, this looks like a spot for Williams to assert his authority in this backfield instead.

Las Vegas has been terrible against the run all season, ranking 26th in EPA per rush and allowing four TDs to opposing RBs on the season. Despite the favorable schedule and the Broncos backfield becoming more condensed this week, Williams is still as big as +185 to find the endzone in spots.

Considering how good he looked last week, the matchup against a poor rush defense, and the fact the Broncos are 3.0-point home favorites, I’d play him all the way down to +150 and think he has a great shot to grab his first score of the season this Sunday.

Erick All Anytime TD (+650; FanDuel) 

  • Play to +600

I’m going to go with a couple of rookies this week at bigger prices who have been slowly climbing their teams' depth charts. Erick All played on a season-high 60% of the snaps last week for the Bengals and had a season-high 14% target share in the Bengals win over the Panthers.

 

He hasn’t had the redzone looks yet to help him pay off with a TD, but you have to think those are coming soon and might be there this week against the Ravens.

Baltimore has allowed the second-most receptions to opposing TEs to date and has generally done well at limiting Ja’Marr Chase the last couple of seasons, making this a spot where Joe Burrow may be inclined to look for secondary options inside the Ravens 20-yard-line.

Regardless, we have lines as big as +650 (13.33% implied probability) on All this week, who is seeing better usage and has a plus matchup, making this a great spot in my estimation to add him as a speculative play to the betting card.

Jaylen Wright +800 Anytime TD (+800; DraftKings)

  • Play to +650

In much the same way we have seen All’s usage creep up, week-by-week, the Dolphins have slowly been increasing the usage on rookie Jaylen Wright, who comes into this game off his best performance of the season (9 carries for 32 yards).

Wright saw his usage go way up against the Titans after De’Von Achane put in his second inefficient performance in a row, which allowed Wright to lead the team in rush yards (despite seeing one less carry than Achane). 

 

The Patriots rush defense has been a bit of smoke and mirrors thus far, as they’ve played three poor rushing offenses in the Jets, Bengals, and Seahawks (with no Kenneth Walker), but got thoroughly gashed last week by the 49ers and Jordan Mason–-who went for 5.15 yards per carry and a TD. They’ve also been poor at defending in the redzone, allowing four rushing TDs to date.

After Achane got stuffed near the goal line again last week, I expect we might see Wright get some of those carries inside the 5-yard-line in Week 5, and even if he doesn’t, he has the ability to score from distance and pay off these gigantic odds as a runner or receiver.

Longshot Anytime TD Bet for Week 5

Bo Melton Anytime TD (+850; Caesars)

  • Play to +700

I’m going to add one more longshot this week and it’s coming from the Packers, who are 3.0-point road favorites this week and have a 25.25-point implied team total, as of writing, which is the third biggest of the week.

With no Christian Watson in the lineup, there will be additional opportunities for the Packers receivers going forward, specifically for a player like Bo Melton, who stepped up when Watson missed time last season. Melton is likely the favorite to be the fourth WR when the Packers take the field this Sunday and, encouragingly, saw three targets last week (after Watson left the game) on just 11 snaps.

Last year when Watson went down, Melton came up with a score (6-105-1) in Week 17 against Minnesota and found the end zone against San Francisco when Watson was at less than 100% in the NFC Championship game.

This is also a great matchup as Los Angeles has a very thin secondary, and already allowed seven total TDs to the WR position to date. I’m not expecting Melton to see the field a ton, but don’t be shocked if he comes on in red zone packages and earns himself an end zone target or two against this defense–which isn't equipped to handle teams with great WR depth like Green Bay.