Don't finalize your betting slips without Geoff's Anytime Touchdown Bets for Week 7:
TD props are a fun way to be football. Who doesn’t love cashing in on big plays and guys finding paydirt? At the same time, the overall TD market is often laden with poor to questionable pricing as books generally have a big hold on many of the TD bets they offer.
There are also pockets of value to be found in this kind of market and every week I’ll be going through trying to find the best TD props for you using the FantasyLife+ projections. We’ll also be line shopping with the Fantasy Life prop finder tool, which allows you to shop for the best prices across all the major sportsbooks in a flash.
Let’s dive into Week 7 and see what the FantasyLife+ tools can unearth for the next big slate of the season.
Week 7 Anytime TD Bets
Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-188; bet365)
- Play to -200
- 2+ TDs (+295; DraftKings)
Williams enters this week’s game against the Raiders–who rank 28th in EPA against the rush and have allowed six TDs through six games to opposing RBs–having scored in all five games this season, and in 12 of his last 15 games dating back to last year. That’s an 80% hit rate over a decent sample size and with a plus matchup in Week 7, it’s hard to deny that his chances of scoring in this game against Vegas may even be larger than that.
Not only is Williams a great runner (second in success rate among RBs) but he’s got a stranglehold on the red zone snaps having taken 88% of the inside the 5 (I5) carries this year.
If you’ve read this column, you know I don’t usually bother with TD props this short. The truth is, the TD market is a high-hold market where we have to look hard (and line shop our butts off) to find good value. But at -188, Williams’ implied probability to score this week is still sitting at just 65%, about 15% lower than his actual hit rate of scoring in games over the last season and a half.
Add in a Raiders squad that is terrible at rushing the ball and terrible at defending against the run and you have a perfect storm type of scenario for Williams, who looks like terrific value this week in the anytime TD market at -200.
If you want to get more frisky, he’s also a great multiple-TD scorer option for those inclined to play for a Rams blowout win.
De’Von Achane Anytime TD (+150; bet365)
- Play to +135
This week the Dolphins will likely have Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Wright, and De’Von Achane (concussion) all healthy and in the backfield. While the usage will be hard to predict, we have seen the Dolphins adamant about getting Achane touches early in games this season (and treating him like their number-one back) and I can’t see that changing much with him logging full practices coming out of the bye week.
There is certainly risk here as we can’t see directly into Mike McDaniel's mind, but price and matchup are both in our favor, making this a great buy-low spot.
Achane is now as big as +150 to find the endzone (something he did 11 times in 11 games last season) and will face off against a Colts squad that has been broken down for monster TD runs in each of the last two weeks–and now allowed three rushing TDs over that span to opposing RBs.
If Achane breaks out this week, his anytime TD price is going to dip way down in Week 8, but if he falters we’re only out a small wager on a +150 line that is 25-50% bigger than it was over the first two games of the season. I’d much rather make a speculative play this week, against a weak Colts defense, than wait for worse prices and try and time another breakout against potentially worse opponents.
TE TD Props For Week 7
Brock Bowers Anytime TD (+220; Caesars)
- Play to +200
I see this Rams/Raiders game as pretty simple to predict. Los Angeles should pound the ball with Kyren Williams (and potentially mix in some short-intermediate throws to Cooper Kupp, if he plays) and get Las Vegas behind the 8-ball at some point, who have zero run game (32nd in EPA per rush).
That will force Aidan O’Connell to drop back a ton in this spot and when he does, his only hope of moving the chains will likely come by targeting Brock Bowers downfield, who has posted a ridiculous 31% and 34% target share in his last two games with Davante Adams out.
Bowers’ insane usage numbers aside, he’ll also face one of the weaker linebacker crews in the league this week, a Rams defense that just allowed Tucker Kraft to go for two scores against them in Week 5. TDs to receivers and TEs can be tricky to time, but we have Bowers projected for over 9.0 targets this week on Fantasy Life and when you are likely to see the ball head your way that much (against a weaker coverage crew) there is just a far greater chance of seeing a broken play, or a successful end zone target.
I like the Rams to win this game big, but with Bowers set to be up against some prevent defense for larger portions of this game, this is a solid time to run it back and take Bowers anytime exposure on the Raiders side as well.
Noah Gray Anytime TD (+950; FanDuel)
- Play to +700
I’ll end with another speculative TE TD prop this week and head to Kansas City, where the Chiefs are coming off a bye week and should be well-prepped to take on a 49ers team that hasn’t been as good defensively as they were last season.
After allowing just 17 passing TDs all season in 2023-24, the 49ers have already ceded eight passing TDs in 2024-25 with two of those TDs going to opposing TEs. San Francisco only allowed two TDs to opposing TEs on the season last year, so there has definitely been some regression in that area for the 49ers, who are without several starters on defense, including SS Talanoa Hufanga and CB Ambry Thomas. The losses of these players (and some players on the defensive line) have forced the 49ers to adjust and it’s left them vulnerable in the middle of the field, something which the Seahawks exploited last week, with Noah Fant going for a season-high 6 catches and 63 yards (on six targets).
With Rashee Rice out, this is a spot where I fully expect the Chiefs to attack more with Travis Kelce, but also mix in Noah Gray, who played a season-high 51 snaps last week in the first game without Rice. Gray only saw two targets last week but with KC running the ball so effectively he wasn’t needed to do much as a pass catcher. Against a more pass funnel defense in SF, I'd expect to see his usage tick up in this spot and it certainly may result in an end zone target or two.
Odds-wise, Gray caught two TDs last year (11.7% of his games) and at +950 we’re getting odds that only give him a 9.5% chance of scoring. Add in a weaker SF defense and you have a good value proposition on a player whose role is likely to be more significant than it was last year going forward.
