TD props are a fun way to bet on football. Who doesn’t love cashing in on big plays and guys finding paydirt? At the same time, the overall TD market is often laden with poor to questionable pricing as books generally have a big hold on many of the TD bets they offer. 

There are also pockets of value to be found in this kind of market and every week I’ll be going through trying to find the best TD props for you using the FantasyLife+ projections.  We’ll also be line shopping with the Fantasy Life prop finder tool, which allows you to shop for the best prices across all the major sportsbooks in a flash.

Let’s dive into Week 11 and see what the FantasyLife+ tools can unearth for the next big slate of the season.

Week 11 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD (-110; bet365)

This is a great spot for Taylor, who is coming off a big game where he gained 114 rushing yards against Buffalo on 21 carries. Despite failing to find the endzone against the Bills, Taylor had lots of chances to cash in, taking 100% of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line.

If Taylor did let you down last week, take heed, as there is a great chance he rectifies the lack of scoring in Week 11. Like the Bills, the Jets rush defense seems to be getting worse as the season wears on. They’ve now allowed at least one rushing TD to an opposing RB in four straight games and are 27th in success rate per rush.

Further, while the change at QB for the Colts may seem bad for Taylor’s opportunity around the goal line, having Richardson vs. Flacco has been a positive for him from a production standpoint this season. Taylor has scored in four of the five games that he and Richardson started together, with the added pressure of having to defend a rushing QB inside the red zone likely helping his efficiency on those short-yardage carries. 

Whatever the case, Taylor has now scored in four of seven games this season, and nine of his last 12 games in this Shane Steichen system–making the 52% implied odds at -110 look like a great bargain.

Just given how poor the Jets rush defense has been, and how #elite Taylor is (in general) this would be playable down to -125 for me at other books, and also a good spot to consider him for a multi-TD prop.

Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+250; bet365)

Jennings’ three TDs on the season all came in one game, so he’s been the epitome of boom or bust in this market. However, even with that three-touchdown game on his record, the WR is a player who looks set for some positive TD regression soon.

Via the Fantasy Life Utilization Report, Jennings has seen at least one end zone target in five of his last six games and leads the team with a 40% end zone target share.

Despite coming up short of the endzone again last week, you also have to be encouraged by his usage in his first game back from injury, as he led the team in target share and saw 50% of the endzone targets.

 

Seattle is also a very plus matchup for Jennings, in general, as they’ve allowed 10 receiving TDs to opposing WRs this season (8th most in the league) and nine TDs to the WR position over their last six games. Right now Jennings is as big as +250 on bet365, and nearly double the odds of Deebo Samuel, who is as low as +130 at some shops.

Samuel is undoubtedly the more prolific scorer (so a solid gap in odds is warranted), but as long as Jennings is hovering around +200 he’s the WR I’d rather target to get in the end zone this week against the WR-friendly Seahawk defense.

Devaughn Vele Anytime TD (+400; FanDuel)

Vele came down with his first TD catch of the season last week in a bit of an unexpected spot against the Chiefs. The rookie has had a solid season but hasn’t been a factor around the end zone yet for the Broncos, which is a bit of a surprise given his ability to play from the slot and his 6’4 frame.  

I expect to see more plays like that run for Vele in the future from Denver, who don't have a ton of great options at WR–outside of Courtland Sutton, who is primarily an outside receiver and often up against the opposing team's best corner.

Vele is also still priced very attractively in this market at most sportsbooks (as big as +400) and has a solid matchup against the Falcons, who are dead last in completion percentage this year (70.35%) and have allowed 1.2 TDs per game to opposing WRs (including two last week to waiver wire pickup Marquez Valdes-Scantling).

I’m bullish on Vele’s usage for the rest of the season and with his odds to score still triple that of Sutton’s, he makes sense as a small speculative play in this matchup.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+500; bet365)

With the Titans having traded away DeAndre Hopkins, their depth chart at WR is barren. Calvin Ridley is going to get primary targets most weeks, and Tyler Boyd will man the slot, but after those two the only WR of note of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, a tall WR with range, who played on 100% of the snaps in Week 10, while converting all three of his targets into catches.

At 27 and having run a 4.57 40-yard-dash out of college, Westbrook-Ikhine isn't going to blow past people downfield, but he’s a player who has shown great body control for his size, has good hands, and the ability to play the slot and outside. 

After he scored in four straight games between weeks 6-9, maybe we’re a little late to the party, but I don’t see much downside in taking a position on him to score again, given his TD odds are still sitting at +500 at several books. He connected for catches on all three of his targets from Will Levis last week and will likely face off against an undersized corner in Shaq Griffin, and a Vikings pass defense that has allowed 10 TDs to opposing WRs, via our DvP Tool. 

I also entered a play on Westbrook-Ikhine’s yardage overs this week, in our Free NFL Bet Tracker, so he’ll be a notable player for me in this matchup where the Titans' passing game could surprise with decent game production.