Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets For Week 12: Is Trey McBride Due?
Don't lock in your betting slip without Geoff Ulrich's favorite anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 12:
TD props are a fun way to be football. Who doesn’t love cashing in on big plays and guys finding paydirt? At the same time, the overall TD market is often laden with poor to questionable pricing as books generally have a big hold on many of the TD bets they offer.
There are also pockets of value to be found in this kind of market and every week I’ll be going through trying to find the best TD props for you using the FantasyLife+ projections. We’ll also be line shopping with the Fantasy Life prop finder tool, which allows you to shop for the best prices across all the major sportsbooks in a flash.
Let’s dive into Week 12 and see what the FantasyLife+ tools can unearth for the next big slate of the season.
Week 12 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets
First off, a big shoutout to last week’s hero Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for cashing his anytime prop last week. It’s not every day you hit a +500 bet, and how he got there was surreal.
NWI didn’t make the card this week, but another Titans WR is on the menu … 👀
Rachaad White Anytime TD (+150; bet365)
I think it’s very reasonable to be bullish on both of the Tampa Bay Buccaneer RBs in this spot (White and Bucky Irving—as of now Sean Tucker looks like a distant third). The Giants rush defense has been awful all season and the usage for both White and Irving has been solid of late.
The two are both available in the anytime TD market as big as +150 as of writing but if I’m choosing one of them to find the end zone in this spot I would lean White. The veteran has five TDs over his last four games and his versatility as a receiver has allowed him to take eight red zone touches over that span, a few of which have led to receiving TDs.
Via our Utilization Report, White also took 100% of the Inside the Five (I5) carries in the Bucs last game, which may or may not be a trend, but it is certainly something that tips the scales back in White's favor a bit.
Either way, getting a lead, or co-lead back at +150 against a team like the Giants, who, on top of featuring a poor rush defense, just pivoted to Tommy DeVito at QB for this game, seems too good to pass up.
I’ve placed a White anytime TD bet in our Bet Tracker already, and he’s a solid add down to +135 this week.
Trey McBride Anytime TD (+220; bet365)
McBride enters this game without a TD on the season, which seems almost unfathomable considering he’s seen a team-high 65 targets and a team-high nine red zone targets. The Cardinals are a run-heavy team (7th in run rate; 49%), but McBride has also been the victim of some bad luck this year, as our own Ian Hartitz pointed out on X a few weeks ago.
This week McBride will take on a Seahawks defense with athletic corners that should force the Cardinals to push more of their passing game back to the middle of the field. Seattle allowed Jauan Jennings to post a ridiculous 10 catches and a TD, on 11 targets, last week, but with George Kittle out, many of those came on short out routes or crossers over the middle field, the same kind of route tree that McBride often works for Arizona.
You never want to play the “he’s due" card, but if we are to get a McBride TD this season, there may be no better spot for him to strike than this week, against the team he last scored against way back in Week 18 of last season.
For betting purposes, with this game projected with just a one-point spread and Arizona having a 24.5-point implied team total, I think it’s reasonable to play McBride down to +200 in this spot. It gives us exposure to the Cardinals' upside but also provides a much better payout than simply taking the over on their team total (or playing them on the moneyline).
Calvin Ridley Anytime TD (+275; bet365)
It does feel a little blasphemous playing a Calvin Ridley TD prop the week after Nick Westbrook-Ikhine smashed all of his overs and alternate line props for me on one play in Week 11. Still, the movement in odds dictates that moving to Ridley in this spot is likely the better play.
On top of just being the more versatile and more explosive WR, the gap between Ridley and Westbrook-Ikhine’s TD odds has closed significantly this week–with Westbrook-Ikhine’s odds dipping down as low as +350, and Ridley’s now as high as +275.
Ridley and his QB Will Levis have had issues getting on the same page at points this season (who can forget the famous 0-8 game from Ridley in Week 6) but lately, they’ve been much better.
Levis has looked far more competent since coming back from injury and even completed 78% of his passes two games ago against the Chargers. The two also hooked up for a 51-yard score last week THAT WAS CALLED BACK, in Week 11 thanks to a simple illegal formation penalty.
Given the issues that the Texans have had containing WR1s this season (16 TDs allowed to opposing WRs, most in the league), this number just looks too big to me. Ridley is being discounted for being attached to a poor QB, but with Levis playing better and the Texans' pass defense seemingly allowing big plays every week, I’d be happy to take this one at +250 or bigger.
Devaughn Vele (+350; bet365)
I’m going to go back to Devaughn Vele this week, who remains priced around +350 for an anytime TD in Week 12. Vele had a nice game against the Falcons, producing four receptions for 55 yards on five targets, but was held out of the end zone.
Given the Broncos put up 38 points and we saw three other Denver WRs find the endzone zone it was a little disappointing. Still, Vele should have a great chance at making it up to us this week.
As of writing the Raiders have the following defensive players on the injury report for Week 12:
- CB Jack Jones (back)
- CB Jakorian Bennett (shoulder)
- CB/NB Nate Hobbs (ankle)
In case you weren’t keeping track, that’s their entire trio of starting cornerbacks, all potentially out (or at less than 100%) for this game.
Vele has looked great in his past couple of starts and continues to see his usage rise and get talked up by the Denver coaching staff. Last week he played on a season-high 42 snaps and has a 78% route rate average over the last two games.
The Broncos should have a shot at posting 25+ points again and with Vele’s odds hardly moving after last week–despite the increased usage–it’s a good time to add him to the card again as a longshot option.
If you’re interested in more TD props, don’t forget to join our FREE Fantasy Life Discord. I’ll be dropping at least one more TD prop (and potentially more) in there on the weekend before the games start.
Good Luck in Week 12!