Every Friday, Geoff Ulrich highlights his favorite anytime touchdown scorer bets …

TD props are a fun way to be football. Who doesn’t love cashing in on big plays and guys finding paydirt? At the same time, the overall TD market is often laden with poor to questionable pricing as books generally have a big hold on many of the TD bets they offer. 

There are also pockets of value to be found in this kind of market and every week I’ll be going through trying to find the best TD props for you using the FantasyLife+ projections.  We’ll also be line shopping with the Fantasy Life prop finder tool, which allows you to shop for the best prices across all the major sportsbooks in a flash.

Last week we did hit on one big prop with Brian Thomas finding the end zone.

I mention Thomas as I do like the Jaguars and Titans game for some potentially undervalued plays this week as well (see below).

Let’s dive into Week 14 and see what the FantasyLife+ tools can unearth for the next big slate of the season.

Week 14 Anytime TD Bets

Bucky Irving anytime TD (+100; bet365)

It’s hard not to like the Buccaneers running backs this week against Vegas. Tampa Bay has a 26.5 implied team total and faces a Raiders defense that has had issues stopping the rush this season.

The Buccaneers backfield is also becoming less and less of a proverbial cluster @#$!.

Bucky Irving took a season-high 62% of the carries last week and scored a rushing TD for the third time in three games and the sixth time in nine games against the Panthers. While he and Rachaad White still shared red zone duties it was encouraging that Irving took his first I5 (inside the 5-yard line) carry since Week 6 (via our Utilization Report) in that game.

 

Irving also just projects as a nice value proposition from a comparison perspective. White’s anytime TD prop is still havering between +105 and +115 at most sportsbooks, despite the reduction in carry volume and targets, while Irving is still as high as +100 at bet365.

White is still going to be a factor for Tampa Bay, but the gap in price between him and Irving in this market should be more significant given both Irving’s explosiveness and his ability in the open field (59.7% missed tackle rate—best in the NFL). 

I already entered this play in our Free NFL bet tracker earlier in the week and would play Irving down to -120. 

Tyrone Tracy anytime TD (+135; DraftKings)

Tracy is another young RB whose anytime TD prop looks to be on sale this week. The rookie has now scored in four of his last eight games since he took over as the lead early down back for the Giants, and managed his second score in three games against the Cowboys last week.

Since Week 5, Tracy has also now played on 60%+ of the snaps for the Giants in all but one game (the blowout loss to the Buccaneers where he lost a fumble) and has dominated the red zone and I5 touches, with Devin Singletary taking just one red zone touch since Week 5.

Tracy isn’t just a good red zone back either. He’s averaging 5.4 ypc and has already proven he can score from distance.

From a matchup perspective, it doesn’t get much better for a lead RB than New Orleans. The Saints have allowed 13 rushing TDs on the season (third most in the league) and have dropped all the way down to 31st in success rate and 30th in EPA per play against the rush. 

Tracy has scored in about 50% of his games as the lead back and with his number as high as +135 (42% implied probability) in spots, there is definitely a little value at this current number – especially with an opponent who undoubtedly boosts Tracy’s chances of breaking off some big plays.

I’d play him down to +125 if needed. 

Calvin Ridley Anytime TD (+200; BetMGM)

Ridley hasn’t scored in three weeks, which is somewhat shocking in and of itself as his QB Will Levis has been playing well and has thrown for 5 TDs over that span.

The lack of end zone connection with his WR1 has been frustrating for those backing Ridley or rostering him in fantasy, but there is certainly the chance we see a ton of positive regression this week against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville’s pass defense has been atrocious all season, and they come in having allowed the second-most passing TDs against on the year (24). Further, while they did manage to hold the Texans WRs out of the end zone last week, Jacksonville may also be without their top corner Tyson Campbell, who missed Wednesday’s practice with a thigh issue and has had injury issues all season.

The Jaguars have struggled with or without Campbell this season, but have given up some monster games to opposing WR1s with him out, including a 12-151-1 game to Nico Collins back in Week 4.

Despite Nick Westbrook-Ikhine dominating the scoring of late, Ridley still has a 44% team air yards share on the season and is getting plenty of downfield targets every week. I’ll be playing some alt lines with Ridley, along with his anytime TD prop, and may even look to combine his props with Levis’ alternate lines, as the two seemed destined for a massive Week 14 against Jacksonville.

Jordan Addison anytime TD (+210; FanDuel)

I’m admittedly not the biggest Jordan Addison fan, but he is starting to get it together on the field and eating into the target share typically dominated by Justin Jefferson in this Vikings offense.

Over his last three games, Addison has posted target shares of 27%-29% and 23%, averaging 7.5 targets per game over that span. They haven’t been empty targets either. In each of those three games, Addison was targeted in the end zone by Sam Darnold at least once and managed TDs against two tougher pass defenses in Tennessee and Arizona.

The Falcons are the opposite of tough as they allow the highest completion rate in the league (71%) to opposing QBs and have now allowed 15 TDs to opposing WRs (the third most on the season).

With Addison coming on of late, and in an A+ matchup, I’m happy to add his anytime TD prop to the card this week and would play this at +200 or bigger where available. 

DJ Chark Anytime TD (+1600; FanDuel)

This one is all about reading the tea leaves a little. At the moment, the Chargers' WR-depth chart looks like this.

Chark was active against the Falcons but only took a handful of snaps. It’s very possible he plays a somewhat bigger role in Week 14 given the issues at WR for the Chargers and he’ll be facing a Chiefs defense that has allowed 5 TDs to opposing WRs over their last four games.

With the price being what it is (+1600; FanDuel), and Chark being an excellent downfield receiver, this one is worth a small bet for a fun longshot to sweat on Sunday Night. 

If you’re interested in more TD props, don’t forget to join our FREE Fantasy Life Discord. I’ll be dropping at least one more TD prop (and potentially more) in there on the weekend before the games start. 

Good Luck in Week 13!