Don't finalize your betting slips without the best anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 15 from Geoff Ulrich:

TD props are a fun way to be football. Who doesn’t love cashing in on big plays and guys finding paydirt? At the same time, the overall TD market is often laden with poor to questionable pricing as books generally have a big hold on many of the TD bets they offer. 

There are also pockets of value to be found in this kind of market and every week I’ll be going through trying to find the best TD props for you using the FantasyLife+ projections.  We’ll also be line shopping with the Fantasy Life prop finder tool, which allows you to shop for the best prices across all the major sportsbooks in a flash. 

Last week, two players from the article hit, with Jordan Addison cashing in at +210 against a terrible Falcons secondary. 

I didn’t target anyone against the Falcons this week, but there are some great matchup-based plays with big odds in the article this week.

Let’s dive in and see what kind of value the FantasyLife+ tools can unearth for us in Week 15.

Week 15 NFL Anytime TD Prop Bets

Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime TD (-125; bet365)

Robinson has scored in seven of his 10 starts this season (a 70% hit rate). At -125 he’s got implied odds of around 55% and even if you played him down to -140, he’d still be going off at around 58% to score. A solid number given his efficiency in this offense in 2024.

That’s the number part of this equation, but the football side of this bet makes it even more appealing.

Robinson is facing a Saints team that is 29th in EPA against the rush and has allowed 9 rushing TDs to opposing RBs over their last seven games. Last week, they gave up a rushing TD to Tyrone Tracy and over their last five games have ceded 7 rushing TDs, all to the opposing teams' lead RB (and de facto lead inside-the-five runner).

Per our Utilization Report, Robinson remains the team's go-to name at the goal line, having taken 100% of the team's I5 (inside the 5) carries in two of his last three games.

Coming off a bye week and now off the injury report (for the first time in a while), there should be plenty of opportunity for Robinson this week, who isn’t being priced like a lead RB in a game where his team is favored by 7-plus points.

Even if this number dips to -150, there is still some value in playing it that low just given how bullish a setup is in front of the third year back this week.

Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (+120; FanDuel)

Pacheco has yet to score since coming back but his usage has been encouraging. After playing just 33% of the snaps in Week 13, he rose to a 48% snap share in Week 14, in a game against the Chargers where he also took 58% of the carries.

Pacheco didn’t score against one of the toughest rush defenses in the league, but his matchup this week is much more appealing. The Browns have fallen to 18th in EPA against the rush and have allowed five rushing TDs to opposing RBs over their last five games. 

Historically, when he’s been in the lead role in this Chiefs offense, Pacheco has returned great value for anyone able to play him at his current anytime odds for Week 15. He scored in 11 of 18 games last season (61% hit rate) and often saw his anytime TD prop go off at -110 or lower last year.

With a plus matchup and implied odds of 45% (+120), I don’t see any reason not to dive back into the Pacheco anytime TD streets in Week 15. With his volume getting ramped back up to his historic norms, I’d feel good playing this down to +105 if need be.

Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (+140; bet365)

Hill is starting to look like the player most people expected to have on fantasy rosters when they drafted him in the 3-5 range this season. Over his last five games he’s caught four TDs and seen at least one end zone target in each of those five starts. 

While the Dolphins were spreading the ball more than normal prior to Week 14, it is interesting to note that in a back-and-forth game against the Jets, they leaned far more on their WRs, with Hill seeing a 31% target share and TE Jonnu Smith dropping down to just a 9% target share.

You don’t want to glean too much from one game, but the matchup with the Texans means we’re likely to see more of the same usage for Hill. Houston is allowing 14.0 yards per catch to opposing WRs and has allowed 19 TDs to the position this season, the second most in the league.

From a value perspective, you’re not too late to hop back on the Hill train this week either. Historically, we’ve seen his anytime TD props go off at -110 or lower, and last season he caught a TD pass in 12 of 18 games (66% hit rate).

At +140, were getting an implied value of about 41% making this one playable down to +120 (45%) for me.

Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+300; FanDuel)

Ferguson returned to the lineup last week for the Cowboys and promptly posted a 21% target share, which was second on the team to CeeDee Lamb, who finished at 25%.

That’s a solid enough reason to be bullish on Ferguson this week alone, who has a dream matchup with the Panthers, a team with a thin defense that gives up loads of easy catches and TDs to opposing TEs.

Via our DvP Tool on Fantasy Life, the Panthers have now allowed the most TDs per game to the TE position on the year at 0.7 (10 total) and also give a solid 2% boost to any TE going up against Carolina from a targets per route run perspective.

This is all just a long way of saying that Ferguson, who is sitting as big as +300 this week, has a great chance to break his goose egg and score his first TD of the season this week. Given his usage from last week, I’m happy to add him at these bigger odds and would play him down to the +250 to 275 range if need be.

Juwan Johnson Anytime TD (+550; Caesars)

Yes, I get it. Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener is going to be throwing the ball for the Saints this week which downgrades the likelihood of any of their pass catchers doing a damn thing. Still, the price on Johnson this week feels like an overreaction.

He was anywhere around +300 to +350 in the anytime TD market last week and came through with a score against the Giants, while also posting a solid 17% target share.

Johnson may not get this wide open again, but the fact of the matter is that injuries have turned him into one of the Saints primary pass-catchers.

Over the last two games, Johnson has posted target shares of 19% and 17% and also posted route rates of 79% and 78% over that same span. On top of the increased usage, and the fact he’s got a huge wing span – which makes him an easy target for any backup QB – he’s going up against a Commanders defense that is traditionally soft in the middle of the field and has allowed 6 receiving TDs to opposing TEs.

With his prices dropping all the way down to +550 in spots, he’s a player I wouldn’t hesitate to add as a longshot this week, as long as you were getting +500 or better.

If you’re interested in more TD props, don’t forget to join our FREE Fantasy Life Discord. I’ll be dropping at least one more TD prop (and potentially more) in there on the weekend before the games start.

Good Luck in Week 15!

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