TD props are a fun way to be football. Who doesn’t love cashing in on big plays and guys finding paydirt? At the same time, the overall TD market is often laden with poor to questionable pricing as books generally have a big hold on many of the TD bets they offer.

There are also pockets of value to be found in this kind of market and every week I’ll be going through trying to find the best TD props for you using the FantasyLife+ projections.  We’ll also be line shopping with the Fantasy Life prop finder tool, which allows you to shop for the best prices across all the major sportsbooks in a flash.

Let’s dive in and see what kind of value the FantasyLife+ tools can unearth for us in Week 16.  

Week 16 Anytime TD Prop Bets

Rachaad White anytime TD (+125; DraftKings)

It won’t shock me if all three Tampa Bay running backs score in this game. Dallas has allowed the second most rushing TDs to opposing RBs on the season and ranks 32nd in EPA per rush. 

I like Bucky Irving to potentially knock it out of the park and hit some of his alternative rushing lines again but if we are talking about straight-anytime TD bets White has a little more appeal for me. At +125, his odds are bigger than Irving’s (+100) despite having now scored nine TDs over his last eight games.

He’s also got seven red zone touches to Irving’s three over the last two games and with Irving banged up, carries far less in-game injury risk than the rookie.

White has also been the team’s preferred back to use when it gets down inside the opposing five-yard line having taken the majority of the inside the 5 (I5) carries this season (note: no Tampa Bay RB took an I5 handoff in Week 15).

 

Add in White’s extra versatility in the passing game (6 receiving TDs this year) and the +125 (44% implied probability) on offer for White to find the endzone this week seems to be offering up some value.

I’d be fine playing this down to +105 if needed. 

Tank Bigsby Anytime TD (+150; bet365)

Bigsby hasn’t posted any big games recently, but the second-year back is healthy again and firmly entrenched in a fairly equal split with Travis Etienne for Jacksonville. 

Normally, we’d want to avoid this Jaguars offense at all costs but the Raiders are on the schedule and they remain a fantastic matchup for opposing RBs. Their defense allows 4.8 yards per carry and still ranks below average in EPA rush on the season. 

Despite some slower games of late, Bigsby also remains one of the best early down rushers in the league. He leads the league in yards after contact, per rush and is also one of the best at avoiding tackles.

While Bigsby only played on 22% of the snaps last week, he still reeled off 11 carries in a game the Jaguars were trailing in for much of the second half. The week prior, in a game the Jaguars actually won, he saw 18 carries and scored his first rushing TD since Week 7.

With the Raiders offense incapable of scoring or sustaining drives, the game script this week has a far better chance of favoring more early down rushes from Bigsby and matching that 18-carry total he posted against the Titans.

If he does approach this ceiling in carries again, he’ll also have a great shot at scoring, making his anytime TD playable for me down to +140 this week.

Jauan Jennings Anytime TD (+190; FanDuel)

We hit with Jennings for an anytime TD a few weeks and I don’t have any problem with getting some exposure to him in this matchup either. 

The Dolphins' secondary has regressed significantly over their last four or five games, specifically in guarding against opposing WRs. After allowing Nico Collins to score twice last week, the Dolphins have now ceded five TDs to the WR position over their last three games and have allowed multiple passing TDs in five of their last eight games.

If the 49ers do get a couple through the air, it’s likely that Jennings will be in on the action. He’s operating like a true WR1, having posted target shares of 27% or better in six straight games dating back to Week 10.

While the TD production has been spotty, the Dolphins, as mentioned above, have been more of a pass-funnel defense of late.

It’s not the biggest number but there is likely some value here in getting the WR1 for a solid team like the 49ers at these levels. Jennings has scored three times now over his last five games and at +190 we’re getting implied odds in the 34% range.

I’d be fine playing Jennings down to +175 in this spot if need be.

Grant Calcaterra Anytime TD (+650; FanDuel)

Calcaterra scored his first TD of the season two games ago against the Panthers and this week will face another team in the Commanders who don’t guard particularly well against opposing TEs.

For the season, the Commanders have now allowed seven TDs to opposing TEs (fourth most in the league) and gave up plenty of big plays last week to Foster Moreau who went for 39 yards a TD in the Commanders 20-19 win. 

I don’t see Calcaterra getting a ton of targets suddenly over A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but with Dallas Goedert out, the opportunity is there for him to make some plays. He had a 17% target share against the Panthers (who are equally bad against TEs) and should be in a good spot to get a red zone look or two his way again this week.

At any rate, the starting TE for the Eagles (who average 26.4 pts per game) likely shouldn’t have anytime odds of +650 (13.3% implied probability). I’d be OK playing this down to +550 if needed.

D'Onta Foreman Anytime TD (+800; DraftKings)

The Browns backfield will be a spot to watch going forward. We know Jerome Ford is likely to be the lead back but even early in the season when Nick Chubb was out, Ford didn’t take a ton of early down work.

In fact, in the six games played before Chubb returned, Ford only scored one rushing TD and took 10 or fewer carries in five (of six) games.

Foreman was the reason why Ford’s volume often suffered (despite Chubb being out) and with the Browns now down their lead rusher again, it seems likely Foreman will get inserted into the lineup once again as well.

He took nine or more carries in three out of five games between Week 2 to 6 and remains better suited to short down and between-the-tackles work, than the more versatile Ford.

This wouldn’t be a situation to get overly excited about since the Browns are just playing out the string and will have a third-string QB starting in Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but the Bengals are legitimately one of the worst teams in the league against the run. They’re 31st in success rate per rush and have allowed 14 rushing TDs to opposing RBs.

With Foreman’s TD prop as high as +800 at DraftKings, there’s is no reason not to add it to cards this week with a small wager.

It’s a speculative play, but if we can get more confirmation of Foreman’s role later in the week, I’d even play this down to as low as +500 potentially just given the plus matchup.

More Player Prop Value For Week 16