Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets For Week 17: Deck The Hall(s) Against Buffalo
Don't finalize your betting slips without Geoff Ulrich's anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 17 below:
TD props are a fun way to be football. Who doesn’t love cashing in on big plays and guys finding paydirt? At the same time, the overall TD market is often laden with poor to questionable pricing as books generally have a big hold on many of the TD bets they offer.
There are also pockets of value to be found in this kind of market and every week I’ll be going through trying to find the best TD props for you using the FantasyLife+ projections. We’ll also be line shopping with the Fantasy Life prop finder tool, which allows you to shop for the best prices across all the major sportsbooks in a flash.
We were so close to cashing a big one with D’Onta Foreman last week, who got a crack from inside the five-yard line on the Browns' first drive of the game vs the Bengals. Alas, Foreman played the role of Grinch and fumbled the ball away on the one.
Let’s try and run better this week, and see what kind of value the FantasyLife+ tools can unearth for us in Week 17.
Week 17 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets
Breece Hall Anytime TD (+140; bet365)
Hall came off the injury report before Week 16 and promptly took 19 touches in the Jets' loss to the Rams. The Jets' lead RB is again off the injury report for Week 17 and has a terrific matchup with the Bills who have allowed 16 TDs to opposing RBs this season, six of which have come through the air.
If this were Week 18, we would be a little more concerned about Hall’s usage (and the Jets limiting him) but New York also feels like a team that is just going to play to win every game at this point given the pride at stake for some the big names on their team.
Hall is also coming off one of his best usage weeks in a while, as he played on 79% of the snaps and had a 73% route rate vs the Rams.
With this being a divisional game and the Bill defense having allowed 6 TDs to opposing RBs over their last four games, I love the price we’re getting on one of the most dynamic RBs in the game to find the endzone.
Even in a down season, Hall has scored seven TDs in 14 games and scored at least one TD in six of his 14 starts (a couple of which he was at less than 100% for). With him fully healthy and his implied probability sitting as low as 41% (+140) on some books, he’s someone I wouldn’t hesitate to start my betting card with this week, and would happily play him down to +130 if needed.
Ameer Abdullah Anytime TD (+275; Caesars)
Abdullah has become the default RB2 in Vegas. He’s played well over 40% of the snaps in five straight games and is also working behind one of the weakest lead backs in the league in Alexander Mattison.
That makes Abdullah an interesting TD prospect for this week again versus the Saints, who are potentially fielding one of the worst rosters in football at the moment. Since Week 9, their defense has now allowed nine TDs to opposing RBs, which includes three rushing TDs allowed last week—to three different RBs.
The Raiders aren’t the Packers but they have moved the ball well with Aidan O’Connell under center the last couple of games and Abdullah has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s scored in each of his last two games, including last week on a rush inside the 10 (a great sign that the Raiders trust him down in this part of the field).
His TD price has come down a bit, but given the Saints issues right now, I don’t think it’s short enough.
The Raiders should be able to utilize their backs a lot in this game just like the Packers did and Abdullah remains the most explosive and versatile back on the Raiders roster. I think he could surprise and post a huge game and would be fine playing this prop down to +250.
Adam Thielen Anytime TD (+235; DraftKings)
Thielen has posted target shares of 26%, 34%, 27% and 26% over his last four games. He is getting WR1 targeting and yet still available at very decent odds in the anytime TD department.
Normally, we wouldn’t be too bullish on anything TD-related for the Panthers (regardless of price) but with Bryce Young playing better Theilen has now managed to find paydirt in two of his last four games.
The increased efficiency since Thielen returned from injury in Week 12 is one thing but the opponent also plays a part, as the Buccaneers are a plus matchup for any opposing WR. Tampa Bay has now allowed the ninth-most passing TDs against and is ranked 31st in success rate vs the pass.
At +235, Thielen’s implied odds sit around 29% this week and even if you extend Thielen’s TD rate to the full eight games he’s played in this season (3/8—37%), and include the pre-Bryce Young-surge games, he still comes out on top of that mark.
Given how competitive Carolina has been of late, I’d be fine including Thielen in cards this week and playing him down to +220.
Dante Pettis Anytime TD (+700; Caesars)
I’m not going out of my way to bet on Saints anytime TD scorers, but the situation and usage on offense for them is so volatile that there is likely some value lurking way back in the odds on some of their receivers.
Dante Pettis was once lauded as a talented prospect back in the day, and while he’s never caught on with an organization as a full-time player, he is starting to emerge as one of the leaders of this Saints receiver core down the stretch.
Over the last two games, Pettis has managed target shares of 19% and played on a season-high 37 snaps against Green Bay last week.
It's possible that Chris Olave returns this week, but given the severity of his concussion and the fact he has been out so long I don’t see the Saints rushing him back into a full-time role.
Pettis would obviously work better if Olave wasn’t in, but if Olave sits, you could even see this number rise as well, from where it stands right now. Either way, the Raiders have allowed 15 TDs to opposing WRs this season so the matchup is there for Pettis to do something if he gets the chance.
I’d be fine playing this at +700, but waiting may get you better prices as more odds come out and more news on the Olave situation drops.
Head over to our Player Prop Edge Table to see which player props are highlighted as the biggest edges on the Sunday slate!
