In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues
Deep Breath Before The Plunge: Time to cleanse the inner palate with this new year’s football gambling resolutions from the Big Guy. Doing this betting thing of ours for quite some time, it’s clear that process reigns supreme. So I put together a list to remind myself of some don’ts before the season starts. Write them down, repeat them—whatever you have to do to create muscle memory.
Set a weekly allotted risk and do not exceed it under any circumstances.
Do not chase losses into late slates. Betting on Sunday Night Football shouldn’t suddenly become attractive because you’re down.
Bet sober. No one enjoys a cold libation more than I do—just save it for after business hours.
Be accountable: This begins with solid analysis you can refer back to unashamed and ends with responsible risk management.
Shop around: Don’t rush to pull the trigger on a perceived misprice without ensuring it’s the best available line. (P.S. - use our Player Prop Finder and Odds Grid to make your shopping even easier!)
Be careful drawing conclusions from watching NFL Red Zone (which I love!)—you’re closer to absorbing nothing than everything.
All that remains is a matter of execution. I wrote my list down, now it’s your turn…
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
- The New York Prop Exchange
Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Everybody Needs Somebody Sometimes
Like so many other compulsive and borderline degenerate football aficionados, I wore out the edge of my seat this week waiting for Matt Freedman’s bold predictions article. Well, it finally hit the site, and shocker … it’s awesome.
Since I spent the majority of my day immersed in the Oracle’s thoughts and musings, it hit me—what better well to draw my next NFL future from than the GOAT himself?
I’m 100% simpatico with Freedman on his Cardinal love this season (I have the best ball bags to prove it). This offense underwent a full renovation down to the studs concerning skill players this offseason. There’s an argument Arizona boasts a top-5 talented squad off the bus between Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and Trey McBride (my TE1 for 2024).
The Redbirds just need to build off the momentum last season after Murray returned. Probably unknown to most, once the franchise QB resumed his role, Arizona posted top-10 offensive finishes in Plays/Game (64.8), Yards/Game (362.8), Yards/Play (5.6), EPA/Play (+0.02), Average Drive Distance (35.3), Time Of Possession/Drive (3:05), 1st Downs/Drive (2.1), and Drive Success Rate (42.5%).
Just look at the breakout in yardage gained when K1 came back in Week 10 (below)—not bad, right?
If I had more confidence in the defense, I’d take a bolder stand on the division/conference. But I’ll be honest, no one likes a low bar more than I do, and I loved this playoff price when I saw it.
Seven of 16, or almost half of all NFC teams make it to the dance. We only need to be better than nine of them—Panthers, Saints, Giants, Commanders, Seahawks, Vikings, Buccaneers, Falcons, and Rams. Not crazy if you ask me considering the 24% implied probability.
THE BET: Arizona Cardinals Make The Playoffs (+320) FanDuel, .5 unit
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The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—Take A Bow(den)!
Total bummer dropping two-hitter props in a row and getting whipsawed on execution. We needed 2 bases from Toglia, he singled in the first and scored (womp womp). Then needed 2 hits/runs/RBIs from Cowser who doubled early—but it’s the only hit and he doesn’t score. Sigh … let’s get back at it.
Toronto heads down to Beantown to face the Red Sox tonight with righty Bowden Francis on the bump. The 28-year-old struggled to a 5+ ERA in 39 IP of relief as a bit of an afterthought, but that story clearly wasn’t fully told.
The Jays sent Francis to AAA to stretch him out for second-half starts when something clicked. He wound up forcing his way into the big league rotation by twisting together nine scoreless innings with only 2 hits and 13 K.
As if that weren’t impressive enough, Francis brought all that goodness with him, putting on an absolute master class in the 27 IP since — 1.33 ERA (2.37 SIERA), 0.44 WHIP, 33% K-BB, 32% Hard Hit, .181 xwOBA, 1.0 HR/9. Whoa!
So why are his strikeout and out props set at 5.5 and 15.5 respectively? I don’t know, but the charts suggest we should be going over at least one of them. Bowden Francis has shown the K ability…
While pitching comfortably deep into games…
With the pitch-per-inning efficiency to validate it.
Boston’s offense is definitely good—but also has been missing Rafael Devers for two games and sells out too often for power. Across their last 400 team PA, the Red Sox rank bottom 10 in strikeout rate, chase rate, and groundball double plays—exactly what we’re looking for if we need 6 K or 16 outs.
THE BET: Bowden Francis, TOR Over 15.5 Outs (-110) Risk To Win 1 Unit
Track all of my daily MLB picks in our Free MLB Bet Tracker!
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
Week 1 of College Football kicks off tonight. Thor Nystrom has his favorite bets locked and loaded.
College Football’s Heisman Trophy winners, Conference Win Totals, and more with Thor Nystrom and Austin Mock.
Matthew Freedman identifies several odds outliers in this NFL Futures Bets roundup.
Here come Thor Nystrom’s Week 1 College Football Best Bets.
With some extra puppy power, it’s time to bet Shohei Ohtani to hit a HR.
What’s the Shedeur Sanders passing-yards prop bet tonight?
