Are the Lions a Sure Thing to Survive and Thrive in Week 11?
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
Sunday NFL Blitz Preview, Part I: Nothing beats a quick once-over on what to expect in Week 11. Each Friday, I crack open my very worn and beaten binder to share some personal hand notes and help you finalize your prep on the early slate.
Rams (4-5) at Patriots (3-7): On the verge of breaking out, the Rams returned healthy stars amidst three straight wins off their Week 6 bye. Things couldn’t be looking brighter. However, their inability to move the chains via the ground game continually haunted them again versus Miami. The stats don’t lie—3.8 yards/carry and only 2 (!) +20-yard rushes through 10 games is unacceptable. Watch if Sean McVay doubles down to correct course against a beatable Patriots team. One, however, that’s at least the best of the worst with Drake Maye under center. LEAN: LAR -4.5 (-110)
Raiders (2-7) at Dolphins (3-6): Credit where it’s due, Miami beat a tough Rams squad last week—but frankly, I’m still seriously irked by the Fins. Where are the fireworks? Or the spacing? Somehow, someway, the Dolphins have failed to reach 28 points in any game this season. What?!? Mike McDaniel better get in that bag and will his squad to 4 touchdowns. The Raiders are in full tailspin, allowing 30+ points in 44% of games this year. The answering of any offseason prayer must begin Sunday. LEAN: MIA -6.5 (-122)
Packers (6-3) at Bears (4-5): One of only six teams boasting positive marks in EPA on both sides of the ball, Green Bay rolls into the Bear cave Sunday looking to get back in the win column. Given the 5-point line, Vegas books seem to give the Windy City shakeup more credence than I do. Having watched this Bears team operate (or fail to) all season, there’s a massive disconnect between playcalling and offensive identity. Caleb Williams is going to be fine down the road, but we bet one-game samples. Chicago failed to sniff the end zone once in three games, so call me Missouri—he’s gotta show me first. Especially curious to see if the Pack finally gets aggressive with blitzes to keep Williams off schedule. LEAN: GB -4.5 (-117)
Jaguars (2-8) at Lions (8-1): Terror. The one word to come to mind for my locked-in Week 11 Survivor pick. You won’t find a more spreadsheet-based, statistically sound “sure-thing” win than the Lions this season. Dan Campbell’s home in the Den. Mac Jones under center for Jacksonville in a two-touchdown spread. What on earth could possibly go wrong? Kidding aside, this shouldn’t even be close if Trevor Lawrence were good to go. LEAN: DET -12.5 (-130)
Browns (2-7) at Saints (3-7): Here they come, back in town … it’s the greatest show around … when Jameis Winston’s circus is coming to town. Returning from the most Jameis Winston two-game stretch in history (334-3-0; 235-1-3), it’s anybody's guess where the wheel stops spinning Sunday. Even the Browns’ defense, one we thought could be an anchor this year, has played erratically. And the injuries that have piled up in New Orleans? Fuhgeddaboudit. I learned my lesson betting Mason Tipton props. Who? Precisely. Neither team cares about anything more than escaping healthy (and perhaps a premium draft pick). If not for betting, props, fantasy, DFS, and the entire gambling stratosphere, you couldn’t prove to me this game actually happened. LEAN: CLE ML (-130)
Vikings (7-2) at Titans (2-7): Classic get-right spot for the Purple People Eaters in Tennessee on Sunday. Struggling to turn the offensive engine over without star OT Christian Darrisaw, Minnesota’s going to keep riding the struggle bus if bad Sam Darnold keeps showing up. That’s 5 INTs in two games versus IND + JAX; a couple of the very worst secondaries in the NFL. TEN must correct course. On the flip side, make no mistake, this Titans defense can ball—it’s always been a question of QB play. Speaking of which, Will Levis just completed his first mistake-free game in recent memory. Is it a sign of things to come? I have my doubts with Brian Flores on deck—but you can bet they’ll be playing hard, hair on fire. LEAN: MIN/TEN u39.5 (-110)
This six-pack of games really turned out to be the PBR of Natty Ices, yuck (if you know, you know). I’ll be back Sunday morning to pick up the spare with the back half of the slate and a couple more +EV player props.
Make sure to check out our Week 11 NFL Odds Page. You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball: The Achane Gang
- The New York Prop Exchange: Super Demario
Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—The Achane Gang
Betting the NFL is all about understanding splits, their impact on trajectory, and how that affects projections. I expressed frustration above toward my guy Mike McDaniel. And who could blame me? The lack of explosivity is painfully obvious. However, one thing jumps off the page when turning on Tua Tagovailoa-only splits. De'Von Achane stirs the drink. Check the utilization. It borders on cartoonish considering he’s only been on the field for 62% of snaps.
So how does that rectify itself? First, is the increasing snap share as the season progresses (image below) ...
Where Achane’s raw usage screams bellcow:
- 19.8 Touches Per Game
- 49.5% Touch Per Snap
- 21.1% Team Target Share
- 117.0 Scrimmage Yards Per Game
- 32.1% Team Scrimmage Yards
- 12.9% Explosive Play Rate
Lastly, outside of Maxx Crosby, the Raiders lack the impact defenders to close out plays. Expect Miami to double-team the perennial Pro Bowler, allowing enough time for Tua to do his thing. Las Vegas sits bottom-3 in everything you need to succeed versus MIA— pressure rate, hurries, fumbles forced, and splash plays,
THE BET: De'Von Achane O101.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-113) FanDuel
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Thor, Coach Gene, and Froton break it down on the Week 12 College Football Pregame Show, Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.
❤️ Matthew catches up with a veteran in a different and heartfelt salute to service in Week 11 Love/Hate.
🌝 Ulrich is on JT to the moon in Week 11 Anytime TD Scorers.
🔮 We’re feeling Purdy good about the Week 11 NFL Player Props.
💰Need a little edge? Ian has 32 Facts for 32 Teams.
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Super Demario
Find me a quality O3.5-reception prop and I’m happier than a dog with two tails. Nothing quite hits the spot like low expectations. Am I right? And low expectations are exactly what we get with the 2024 New England offense, though maybe some more undeserved than others.
Obviously, changing quarterbacks shifts the entire dynamic of an offense from target shares to macro-level schematics. Here’s where it gets tricky, though. Actually paying enough attention to watch this stuff matters.
Isolating stats for Drake Maye Is a good first instinct but lacks context. If you followed the Pats overseas to London, you’ll know what I mean—Demario Douglas caught the first 2 passes of the game (woohoo!) before leaving due to illness (trombone sound).
Adding that entire game log into the sample spoils the pertinent data. Sorry, not sorry. In the four other healthy games with Maye under center, I see the team leader in:
Targets: 26
Receptions: 19
Receiving Yards: 189
Target Per Route: 23.6%
Yards Per Route Run: 1.72
Yards After Catch Per Reception: 7.1
Explosive Reception Rate: 33.3%
Plus, most importantly for reception betting, New England manufactures touches for Douglas—his route tree looks like the back of a diner menu my kids got to with a box of crayons (image below).
Famous last words incoming. Regardless of opponent, there’s no way (gulp) a top target underneath falls short of 4 grabs as a 4-point underdog at home. He’s the first function of the pass attack. If Douglas finishes that game across the pond, his game log is totally different and this line’s a full catch higher.
How about going out on a little confirmation bias with the experts? Dwain and Freedman concur (finally, whew!). We’re looking at 4 grabs as the mean across the board.
THE BET: Demario Douglas, Over 3.5 Receptions (-108) FanDuel
