In today's Betting Life Newsletter:

The Best Coast, Redux: Great to be back for the next part of our MLB team preview series, aimed to give you a leg up on preseason betting markets with all the most recent analyses. Did you miss me?

Today, we stay camped out on the left coast (and the desert) in the National League West division to cover the San Francisco Giants and re-tooled Arizona Diamondbacks.

Go West

Frankly, this division is not getting enough love for how stacked it is. I know everyone’s rightfully in love with the Dodgers, but we could easily see 60% of this division make the postseason. Even as an East Coast dad, I can already tell you I’ll be staying up late for any tilts between LAD, ARI, and SD.

But first, let’s check last year’s stolen base leaders 


2024 Major League Stolen Base Leaderboard

And, of course, what kind of betting newsletter would this be if we didn’t put all this great analysis to good use and wrap up with my favorite future bet?

📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute!

🏈 To my fantasy football people, of course we have you covered on Fantasy Life:

🆓 Ian Hartitz just finished a series on top free agents at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. And ICYMI, he broke down all 32 NFL teams’ needs.

🔼 Thor Nystrom just published his post-NFL Scouting Combine Mock Draft and his 2025 NFL Draft RB Rankings highlight the top 20 running backs going into the draft.

đŸ’Ș Speaking of incoming draftees, Dwain McFarland delivered the Rookie RB Super Model for one of the top RB classes in recent memoy.

First, let’s play hardball in the NL West! Click this button below 👇 to head to our futures page!

ARE THE DIAMONDBACKS A GOOD LONGSHOT IN THE NL WEST?

Do people still have watercoolers? Around the Slack? Here’s what I’m reading 


😉 First two rounds of a dynasty mock draft, and the end has a fun surprise.

❓ Still “Untitled,” but Kendall and cooterdoodle talk player fades.

âŹ†ïžâŹ‡ïž Stock up and down for these players after the NFL Scouting Combine.

🌝 BTJ to the moon after the Christian Kirk deal.

đŸ’Ș Dynasty fantasy football startups are happening. This will help.

👀 These rookie QBs could use good mentors to help them acclimate to the NFL.

🏀 JuJu Watkins and USC cover in Big 10 quarterfinals? You have company.

âšŸđŸŒ‰MLB Team Preview—San Francisco GiantsđŸŒ‰âšŸ

Just like the Padres (and everyone else in the NL West for that matter), Los Gigantes suffer from a severe case of living in the Dodgers’ enormous shadow. In case you haven’t listened to any MLB-related media, there’s very little mention of anyone else out west—several pundits have crowned LA world champs already, looking past the division altogether.

San Fran finished last season at 80-82, nine games out of the third Wild Card, with a near-replication predicted by books for 2025. TheIR current +81 win (-110) baseline total feels milquetoast on the surface—but the Giants were the consummate .500 team last year, finishing within a single game in either direction from even against the East (16-17), West (26-26), Central (15-16), interleague (23-23), and one-run games (24-24).

If bettors can draw anything from the Giants, it’s to look for them to beat up on bad teams again after finishing 11 games over .500 versus squads with losing records.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. LaMonte Wade Jr., 1B: .232 / 49 / 44 / 12 / 2
  2. Jung Hoo Lee, CF: .286 / 61 / 53 / 9 / 7
  3. Willy Adames, SS: .241 / 80 / 79 / 25 / 11
  4. Matt Chapman, 3B: .244 / 84 / 86 / 30 / 7
  5. Heliot Ramos, LF: .254 / 70 / 68 / 21 / 8
  6. Mike Yastrzemski, RF: .215 / 54 / 53 / 16 / 4
  7. Tyler Fitzgerald, 2B: .229 / 65 / 53 / 15 / 18
  8. Jerar Encarnacion, DH: .226 / 23 / 24 / 7 / 1
  9. Patrick Bailey, C: .228 / 42 / 41 / 9 / 2

Hitting Overview: I fear I’ll fail to properly describe this lineup by referring to it as giving off-brand vibes. It’s not as bad as getting knock-offs at Temu or Dollar Tree—maybe more like brand-name jeans marked irregular. One leg definitely feels a little longer than the other down by the bay this year.

On a per-player basis, there’s a lot to like about the Giants’ offense. Sure, there are some elevated strikeout rates. However, they come without chasing outside the zone and big-time power metrics, complete with pull-heavy tendencies. Yes, striking out is bad (more unparalleled 4-D analysis from an award-winning writer, I know)—but not all Ks are created equally. 

When your first six batters boast a +40% hard-hit rate, five of which also have double-digit barrel and pulled flyball rates, we want them aggressive inside the zone. Especially with a team like San Fran that doesn’t run, walks are only going to help so much. Notice the team leaderboard in the intro—only the Twins stole fewer bags than the Giants.

Not grabbing those extra bases at every chance played a big role in capping their run-scoring ability. Unfortunately, that doesn’t appear to be changing any time soon, once again leaving SF to rely on homers and extra-base hits to score.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  1. Logan Webb, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  2. Justin Verlander, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐
  3. Robbie Ray, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  4. Jordan Hicks, RHP: ⭐
  5. Kyle Harrison, LHP: ⭐⭐

Starting Pitching Overview: To go back to the name brand analogy for a second, the Giants’ rotation is sporting the fanciest logos—they just may be a little out of style. Outside of MLB’s innings pitched leader dating back to 2022, bona-fide ace Logan Webb, I have durability concerns. If you didn’t, you’re either a massive Giants homer, or it’s medication time. Not one other starter in this rotation eclipsed 125 IP in 2024, and those innings need to come from somewhere.

There’s some buzz in the fantasy streets over Robbie Ray, two years removed from Tommy John surgery, now affectionately referred to as the “Honeymoon phase.” It’s a small sample, but he’s through five scoreless innings this spring with a blistering 52.9% strikeout rate and, maybe more importantly, zero walks. He’ll have to stay upright if the Giants hope to get over their 81-win total. Whenever their one-two punch takes the bump, expect SF to be the listed favorite. Beyond that 
 not so much.

San Fran’s turning to 42-year-old future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander for impactful innings, after shoulder inflammation and neck discomfort derailed his 2024 season. The old man did manage to finish the season on the hill, though it came with an 8.10 ERA in those seven GS down the stretch. Yikes.

Then it’s Jordan Hicks, who totaled just 11 IP in his final nine appearances as a reliever. He will also be relied upon to make a full complement of starts—you can see why I have my doubts. As far as betting goes, it’s a tale of two cities. Back the Giants confidently when Webb or Ray are out there, then tuck tail and run for the hills for SP 3-5.

WHAT ARE THE GIANTS’ CHANCES TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS?

âšŸđŸMLB Team Preview—Arizona DiamondbacksđŸâšŸ

As someone in the planet’s 99th percentile of time spent working on MLB stuff, I hate admitting being oblivious to anything—let alone something huge, like the fact Arizona led the league in runs scored, batting average, and on-base percentage in 2024. However, I do know the Snakes with shapes on their backs were one of three National League teams to finish with 89 wins, but the only one to not make the postseason—despite being 27 runs ahead of the sixth-seeded Mets in terms of run differential.

Not deterred whatsoever by the construction of an intradivisional super team in the Hollywood Hills, the DBacks acquired Corbin Burnes this offseason. Last I checked, one way to clear a hurdle in MLB is to add a frontline ace into the fold.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

  1. Corbin Carroll, RF: .254 / 98 / 73 / 21 / 41
  2. Ketel Marte, 2B: .275 / 84 / 92 / 26 / 6
  3. Josh Naylor, 1B: .258 / 71 / 80 / 20 / 7
  4. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF: .271 / 67 / 73 / 16 / 6
  5. Jake McCarthy, CF: .259 / 69 / 43 / 6 / 34
  6. Eugenio SuĂĄrez, 3B: .232 / 69 / 84 / 23 / 1
  7. Pavin Smith, DH: .241 / 36 / 40 / 10 / 1
  8. Gabriel Moreno, C: .277 / 54 / 52 / 9 / 5
  9. Geraldo Perdomo, SS: .232 / 54 / 36 / 7 / 13

Hitting Overview: Arizona’s mostly bringing the band back for an encore except for aging first baseman Christian Walker, who’s already banged up with an oblique in Houston. In what was my heist of the offseason, the D-backs brought in professional hitter Josh Naylor in a trade for unproven SP Slade Cecconi and a Competitive Balance Round B Draft pick (whatever that is).

We haven’t mentioned a team’s type in a few editions, and no player archetype fits better into their new team's vision than the 27-year-old Naylor. Talk about going hand in glove, it’s all about discipline in the desert—none of their top five hitters posted a strikeout rate over 20% or zone-contact under 87% last season. This offensive collective consistently forces the opposition to throw strikes and lets batted balls in play do the talking. 

Then, there’s also a good bit of power despite plenty of elevated groundball rates. Where does it come from? Eight of their nine starters posted a maximum exit velocity north of 110 mph last season—but wait, there's more. The Diamondbacks are one of the teams following my extensive work (a man can dream, can’t he?) on the effect of pulled flyballs and why making a concerted effort to do so works so well. No other team in the league boasts eight different batters with a double-digit pulled flyball/line drive rate, so be careful if you’re tempted to automatically regress their HR/FB%.

Not sure I can call for another league lead in run scoring, but make no mistake, their style of plate approach makes them extremely dangerous on a nightly basis. These divisional games between the DBacks, Padres, and Dodgers will be must-watch TV all season.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

  1. Corbin Burnes, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  2. Zac Gallen, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  3. Merrill Kelly, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐
  4. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐
  5. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐

Pitching Overview: Again, I find myself wishing for a half-star emoji because every projected starter probably deserves one. No one knows if all five will be able to simultaneously re-assume peak powers, but we can say with some degree of certainty they’ve all produced as frontline SPs in the past. No gaps in the rotation means possessing the necessary fuel to catch fire and go on long runs.

Even if Eduardo Rodriguez’s strained shoulder pops back up as an issue, I also love the pitching depth waiting in the wings. And it’s not just one arm, either. Arizona has its choice of backups behind the glass in case of emergency, with Jordan Montgomery, Ryne Nelson, and Yilber Diaz—all ready to plug any holes in the dam at a moment’s notice.

Top it off with a bunch of capable arms in the bullpen, and you’ve got everything in place to make the second season with hopes for a deep run. If the DBacks played in the Central, they’d likely be a heavy favorite to take it down. But they aren’t. Of course, this all ignores the giant blue-and-white elephant in the room—but in a short baseball playoff series, anything can happen.

CORBIN BURNES NL CY YOUNG AWARD ODDS?

🔼 Look Into My Crystal Ball: Quick Hit Futures Bets 🔼

Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do. 

It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account is at $0.

THE BET: Corbin Carroll To Lead MLB In Runs Scored (+1100) On DraftKings, Risk (0.10u ONLY) 

Even though I just spent the better part of a morning gushing over the Diamondbacks, the level of competition in the NL West is too fierce, leaving me with no choice but to take all their win bets off the table at cost. 

That said, I did stumble on a nice longshot with a bit of a misprice by my calculation. Despite struggling with an early shoulder injury, Corbin Carroll still managed to play 158 games and finish fifth in runs scored at 121. He said himself it wasn’t until the break that he felt like himself, and the boxscore reflects just that.

Carroll hit 17 bombs to go with 17 steals in the second half, but more importantly for our purposes led all of MLB in runs with 61. As the everyday leadoff man for a top-tier offense that just scored more than anyone—including LAD)—he shouldn’t be 11:1 in this market.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

CAN CORBIN CARROLL WIN THE NL MVP?