In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Before going further, we want to pay homage to those taking part in the Army-Navy game today. This game is beyond sport. It’s way beyond 22 young men clashing into one another on a football field in an annual rivalry that dates back to 1890.
It’s a celebration of the service academies and those who have vowed to defend our rights and freedoms as a country. If even for a moment, take in the majesty of the game both on the field and in the stands. We’ll be previewing it, too. There is nothing like it. Thank you all for your service!
Quick transition, we’ve officially made it through the first quarter of the NBA season. It’s been a quiet week so far—though there were eight games on Friday—but most teams have played around 25 games. It’s a great time to check in on some of the futures odds available across the industry.
Specifically, it’s worth diving into the NBA Finals market. Which teams are providing the best betting value at this point in the year?
The Celtics remain the favorites … but they haven’t been quite as dominant as they were last year. They’ve still been really, really good, but their +10.0 Net Rating is a slight decrease from their +11.7 mark last year. It puts them behind the Thunder and neck-and-neck with the Cavaliers after obliterating every team in basketball in that department last year.
Some clear surprises have also emerged. The Magic have been without Paolo Banchero for most of the season, but they’re still sitting in third place in the East at 17-10. The Rockets and Grizzlies are tied for the No. 2 spot in the West, and neither team even qualified for the play-in tournament last season. The Warriors have also had a bit of a resurgence after a down campaign, though they’ve slid a bit in the standings of late.
Can any of these teams actually contend for the title? Will the Celtics go back-to-back? Let’s dive into the odds and highlight a few teams worth taking a flier on.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Watercooler: Army-Navy pregame show.
- Top Targets to win the NBA Finals: Is it OKC’s year?
- Early CFB Bowl Bets: Thor Nystrom’s first two targets
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🇺🇸 Sometimes, it’s more than just a game. Thor, Coach Gene, and Froton break down Army-Navy and other CFB action live at 10 a.m. ET.
☃️ It’s the most wonderful time of the year: Bowl Season! Thor picks his winners for confidence pools.
📈 Geoff Ulrich is on a heater, going 16-9 on his last 25 prop picks. What does he have in store for Week 15?
💡 The Bellofatto Build is back for Week 15. This week’s theme? Christmas lights.
🚨 Big trade alert! The Chicago Cubs acquire a big bat from the Houston Astros.
Best Bets for Early Bowl Games
by Thor Nystrom
Below is one of my best bets for the weekend in College Football, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.
Because the College Football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately—as they happen—into our College Football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.
Note: “Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full College Football Game Model based on my projections.
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl: South Alabama vs. Western Michigan
Spread: South Alabama -7.5
Adjusted Thor Line: South Alabama -10.9
Noteworthy Portal, Opt-out and Injury News:
South Alabama
- RB1 Fluff Bothwell (Portal)
- Starting CB Jordan Scruggs (Portal)
- QB1 Gio Lopez (Injury)
- Starting RG Reed Buys (Injury)
Western Michigan
- TE1 Blake Bosma
- Starting EDGE Corey Walker
- Rotational DL Anterio Thompson
Handicap
South Alabama QB Gio Lopez is questionable. QB2 Bishop Davenport will get the call if Lopez can’t go. This would be a significant downgrade—I think Lopez is a P4 talent (he recently stated that he’s staying at USA for the 2025 season).
The Jags will be able to make up for RB Fluff Bothwell’s absence easier by simply giving most of his usage to fellow committee RB Kentrel Bullock. This is one reason we like the over on Bullock at 82.5 rushing yards in the prop market.
Western Michigan’s absences are probably a bit more problematic than meets the eye. TE Blake Bosma is easily the team’s best pass-catching option. Bosma caught all 37 of his catchable targets this fall to lead the team in receptions. He had three times as many receiving TDs (6) as anyone else on the roster (2).
Meanwhile, WMU’s rancid No. 120-ranked SP+ defense could not really afford the losses of two stalwarts on the line. Thompson isn’t a good run defender, but he can rush the passer. His loss cleaves what was a three-man DL rotation down to two, with little-used players elevated to take his snaps.
The Walker loss hurts the most. He was arguably the team’s best defender. Walker was a very good run-defending presence on the EDGE—South Alabama may look to attack his replacements.
Western Michigan’s run defense wasn’t good to begin with, and it’s going to be worse in this game. In addition to riding the Bullock train, we’re fading WMU RB Jaden Nixon at 61.5 rushing yards. Nixon has been the clear RB3 in this rotation for over a month. The last three games, he averaged 5.3 carries for 9.0 rushing yards per game.
If Lopez plays, we’d want to be on South Alabama laying up to -9.5. But since his status is unclear at the time of this publishing, we’re sticking to the props.
Thor’s Bets:
South Alabama RB Kentrel Bullock Over 82.5 Rushing Yards
WMU RB Jaden Nixon Under 61.5 Rushing Yards
Looking to get access to both our College Football Game Model and our College Football Player Props Tool? Sign up for Tier 2 of FantasyLife+ to access this and so, so much more!
NBA Futures Bets
by Matt LaMarca
The Favorite: Oklahoma City Thunder (+450; ESPN Bet)
OK, so the Thunder technically aren’t the favorite. The Celtics are priced as low as +195 on FanDuel, so they remain the most likely winners in the eyes of the sportsbooks.
While I agree with that assessment, I’m not sure the gap between the Celtics and Thunder should be this wide.
The Celtics absolutely dominated last year, but they breezed through an extremely easy road in the playoffs. They played the Heat in the first round, the Cavaliers minus Donovan Mitchell in the second, and the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. When they made it to the final round, they were n greeted by the Mavericks. Ultimately, they never faced a team seeded higher than fourth, and they avoided most of the top superstars in the NBA.
They’ll undoubtedly face a stiffer test this season, and you could argue that the East currently looks tougher than the West. The West is deeper, but the Cavaliers and Knicks stand out as two of the best teams in the league. If the Cavs can hang on to the No. 1 seed in the East—which will be easier said than done—the Celtics might have to beat both just to make it back to the Finals.
Nobody in the West should scare the Thunder in the same way. For starters, the Thunder have played better than everyone else this season. They’re first in the league in Net Rating despite being without Chet Holmgren for most of it. The Nuggets and Timberwolves have taken clear steps backward, and they were OKC’s only real competition for most of the year.
They lost to the Mavericks in the Western Conference semifinals last year, but the Mavs had significantly more playoff experience at that point. That was the first trip to the playoffs for most of their core, and they’ll be better prepared this season. You could play them to win the West at +200—and therefore eliminate the Celtics entirely—but +450 to win the Finals also seems generous. This team is that good.
The Contenders: Cleveland Cavaliers (+1400; FanDuel)
I’m going to need someone to explain this price tag to me like I’m 5. The Cavaliers have the best record in the NBA. They’re third in Net Rating. They have amassed a legit collection of talent, and they’ve already managed to beat the Celtics once this season. Why are they available at +1400 to win the Finals?
I think part of it stems from how underwhelming they’ve been in the playoffs in the past two seasons. They were eliminated by a far-less-talented Knicks squad in the first round two years ago. It wasn’t even a competitive series, with the team losing in five games despite entering the series as the higher seed.
They did improve by winning a series last year, but they ultimately had no chance vs. the juggernaut Celtics. Losing Mitchell during Game 3 was a death blow, though they did manage to win one of the first two games in Boston.
This year’s team is undoubtedly better. Kenny Atkinson is a legit coach, and Evan Mobley continues to improve. I’m not sure if they can hold on for the No. 1 seed, but +1400 feels extremely generous. It puts them behind the Knicks and Mavericks, and in line with the Nuggets. They’ve been significantly better than all three to start the season.
The Longshot: Houston Rockets (+6000; DraftKings)
Can the Rockets really win the NBA title this season? Probably not. The old adage in the NBA is you need to lose in the playoffs before you can win, and for the majority of this roster, this will be their first trip to the postseason. But does +6000 feel way too long? Absolutely.
If you haven’t watched this season, the Rockets are legit, folks. They’re young, hungry, and get absolutely after it on the defensive end. They’re also extremely deep, which gives head coach Ime Udoka a ton of different ways to potentially close out games. They’ve spent years collecting marquee talent from the draft—guys like Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, and Amen Thompson—and they’ve surrounded those guys with some quality veterans. Fred VanVleet has already won one championship in his career, while Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams have brought the “grit and grind” mentality from Memphis.
It should surprise no one that this team is among the best in the West this season. We saw their upside down the stretch last season when they rattled off 11 straight wins in March.
The Rockets are priced as low as +3000 at other locations, so +6000 on DraftKings stands out as a massive discrepancy. At a minimum, this ticket should give us some hedge potential should the Rockets maintain their standing in the West and have to face a more “marquee” opponent in the playoffs.
