Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Breakdown. Course Preview, Best Bets, and more.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the second event on the PGA TOUR’s Florida swing and the first of two signature events in a row. This week’s field will be limited to approximately 80 players and with no cut in play will offer a 4M first prize and 20M prize pool. 

To date, we have had two signature series events (Pebble Beach and the Genesis Open) and have seen outside winners in both in Wyndham Clark and Hideki Matsuyama, who went off around 50-1 and 70-1 respectively. 

This event has had numerous surprise winners in the past and last year, 200-1 shot Kurt Kitayama was able to one-up a loaded leaderboard down the stretch that included Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland. 

There has also been an international theme at Bay Hill with non-American players taking home the title in five of the last eight seasons as well.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Odds

Scottie Scheffler is back in action this week after taking the last tournament off. He’s still struggling with his putter but his elite tee-to-green game has nabbed him a couple of top-10 finishes to start the year. 

McIlroy (winner at Bay Hill in 2018) played last week and looked fine outside of one major blunder which cost him multiple strokes. 

Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay, two players who were in contention at this venue down the stretch in 2023, are also back in action. Cantlay blew a final-round lead in his last start while Hovland has yet to post a top 10 (but typically has excelled once the PGA hits Florida). 

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

Arnold Palmer Invitational Course Preview

Bay Hill – Tampa Bay, Florida  

Par 72, 7,466 yards

• Greens: Bermuda / Fairways: Ryegrass overseed / Rough: Ryegrass overseed
• Designer: Arnold Palmer (2001)
• Past winners:
  • 2023: Kurt Kitayama +20000
  • 2022: Scottie Scheffler +2200
  • 2021: Bryson DeChambeau +1300
  • 2020: Tyrrell Hatton +5500
  • 2019: Francesco Molinari +3300

Bay Hill is a more open Florida venue that features tougher ryegrass overseeded rough, fast Bermuda greens and plenty of water. While it has played easier at points in the past it’s turned into one of the hardest tests on the PGA circuit over the last few seasons. Winners at Bay Hill have failed to reach double digits under par in three of the past four seasons as the unpredictable and often heavy winds have made it difficult to navigate this watery venue. 

Bay Hill is longer at over 7,400 yards but since it plays as a par 72 with doglegs on several holes, that force layups, power off the tee hasn’t necessarily been a huge factor in predicting winners. Bryson DeChambeau won in 2021 (overpowering the course to an extent) but both Francesco Molinari and Tyrrell Hatton used precision approach games and timely putting-to-book wins.

The same can be said for Kitayama last season who gained just 0.4 strokes off the tee but 7.7 strokes around the green and putting combined.

Rory McIlroy lines up his par putt on the eighth hole during the opening round of The Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches at PGA National Resort & Spa on Thursday, February 29, 2024, in Palm Beach Gardens, FL.

While it’s far from a links venue, the ability to handle windy conditions and tricky around-the-green conditions has certainly been a theme in the history of past winners at Bay Hill. Both Kitayama and Hatton have solid links record and McIlroy and Molinari are both Open Championship winners.  For betting purposes, players with solid course histories can certainly be respected as well. 

Kitayama was a shock winner who broke a lot of recent trends but, for the most, course history has been a key indicator as eight of the last nine winners had recorded a top 20 at this event in a prior season before winning. 

Stat notes:

• Course history: Florida form and course history at Bay Hill (eight of the past nine winners of this event had recorded a T17 or better finish at Bay Hill in a previous season before winning) 
• Strokes gained approach: Each of the past four winners at Bay Hill have gained over +3.0 strokes on their approaches for the week of their win.  
• Strokes gained around the green: Six of the last seven winners gained strokes around the green, and the last three winners gained over 1.0 strokes ATG.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While they are all outright plays for me I like playing these names in the placing department as well and I’ve included placing options for some of the names if you are constructing a betting card and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Tommy Fleetwood outright (+3000; BetMGM) 

• Play to +2800

I think it’s pretty reasonable to chase Fleetwood in the outright market this week. Arnold Palmer’s signature event has always been a place where golfers, who don’t necessarily have a ton of elite wins to their name, have been able to elevate and break through for a big trophy. Going back to the 2000’s we saw Chad Campbell and Rod Pampling get career-defining wins at Bay Hill and recently international players have been a theme. 

Tyrrell Hatton, Francesco Molinari, and Marc Leishman have all won this event over the past eight seasons while last year’s surprise winner, Kurt Kitayama, was also a European Tour regular at one point. All of the players mentioned had already won as a professional prior to claiming the trophy at Bay Hill (much like Fleetwood), but for many the win at Palmer’s signature course was a defining moment. For Hatton and Kitayama it marked their first professional PGA win and for Leishman it was significant in that marked his second win and first against a truly elite field.

A win this week for Fleetwood will be of markedly similar significance on all scales. He’s come excruciatingly close to winning on the PGA numerous times now and his best work has always been done in the state of Florida where he’s grabbed top-five finishes at every major Florida venue (PGA National, TPC Sawgrass, Copperhead, and Bay Hill). 

His recent form may not jump off the page but he beat a McIlroy-led field in Dubai on the DP World Tour to start his season and posted a solid top 10 at Riviera in his last start where his putter looked in great form. With the move to Florida, I’d not have an issue betting on him at this venue which has produced a ton of breakthrough winners over the past couple of decades. 

Adam Scott outright (+5500; Fanduel) | top five (+900; bet365) or (each-way +4000 1/5 top eight, bet365)

• Play to +5000

It may not seem like it, but Adam Scott’s winless drought has now crossed the four year mark. He last claimed victory on the PGA at the 2020 Genesis Open and, while he’s remained competitive since then, he’s had trouble putting together the big stretches needed to compete with today’s younger fields. While that is a concern considering he’s now hit 43 years of age it’s also clear that Scott is firmly committed to getting over the hump and adding at least one more win to his resume. 

The sometimes slow starter played in multiple events over the fall and this week will mark his fourth PGA start of the season. The Aussie has also hit the ground running this year showcasing far more elite ball striking than he did at this time in 2023, gaining 6.5 strokes on approach at TPC Scottsdale where he posted a T8.

Adam Scott plays his tee shot on the ninth hole during the conclusion of Round 1 at the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on Feb. 8, 2024.

Scott’s never won at Bay Hill but he came close in 2014 when he had the lead early on Sunday but made too many blunders down the stretch. Three of his career wins have come in the state Florida, however, and his penchant for playing on Bermuda shines through in his recent putting splits where he’s ranked 7th in strokes gained putting on that surface over the last 24 rounds. 

With tons of experience at this venue, and with him showcasing some of great late career form, Scott‘s +5000 outright odds look more than generous enough to play, and he’s someone I’d not hesitate to play fast and each-way or top 10 bet as well. His recent ball striking and course history suggest he’s far more likely to pick up the pace in Florida than regress in results. 

Adam Hadwin outright (+8000; BetMGM)| top 10 (+500; DraftKings) or (each-way +7000 1/4 top five, bet365)

• Play to: +7500

Hadwin will be making his sixth career start at Bay Hill, and lately, he’s looked like a player whose second victory may be just over the horizon. His T2 finish (playoff loss) at the Rocket Mortgage last year was the first of four top 6 finishes over his last 13 PGA starts and, this week, he comes in off a solid start at Riviera where his putting and short game gained him 4.3 strokes combined, on his way to a T4 finish. 

When you look at Hadwin statistically he’s got a lot of the same attributes that prior longshots who have surprised at this event have offered as well. He’s got good Florida history (T6 at Bay Hill 2017 and win at Copperhead 2017) and a big ceiling with his putter (12th in strokes putting on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds). His approaches aren’t as consistent as some of the other elite players in the game but he’s also gained over 4.5 strokes on approach at this venue in two of his five prior visits. 

All-in-all, he may make more sense as a top 10 play (+600) given the elite field he’s up against, but the +8000 outright odds look a little too big for a player who has come extremely close to winning multiple times over the past 8 months or so. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational placement bets 

Viktor Hovland top 10 (+140, bet365)

• Play to +130

Hovland’s season has gotten off to a slow start but if we look at his history on the PGA TOUR it should come as no surprise. Last year he recorded zero top 10 finishes on the West Coast before busting out with three top 10 finishes in a row, starting with this week at Bay Hill. Overall, he’s made 8 starts on the Florida swing over the past three seasons and placed inside the top 10 in five of those tournaments. 

The Norwegian also played this event long before he was a confirmed breakout star and will be making his sixth career start at Bay Hill, posting T2 and T10 finishes at this venue the last two seasons. His ball-striking took a tick up at Genesis (T19) and when you look at his record on the Florida swing vs the solid +140 odds available, he makes sense as a placing target this week, especially in this now condensed 80-man field. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout top 10 (+600, bet365)

• Play to +550

Bezuidenhout missed the cut last week but it was not before he posted one of the most entertaining rounds of the season. He had actually vaulted himself into a shot of the lead for a moment on Friday, firing five-under par over his first 10-holes, before collapsing with multiple double bogies or worse to a -1 finish and a missed cut. 

The missed cut shouldn’t be that big a concern as he has been solid in 2024, landing a runner-up at the American Express and three other top 30 finishes. He’s also played well around Bay Hill, with three top 20 finishes in four career starts. At +600, he makes sense as a longshot to target in the placement odds, around a track where he’s found lots of success in prior visits. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational tournament matchup bets

Tommy Fleetwood (-110, DraftKings) over Max Homa 

I discussed Fleetwood above in the outright section and the move to Florida gives him the edge over Homa for me this week. 

Overall, Homa has had a poor start to his season as his T13 at the Torrey Pines represents his best finish of the season, on a west coast stretch where he has dominated in the past. His around-the-green game has been solid but he’s struggled with his ball-striking and that’s likely to be a bigger problem now that we’re away from his favorite venues and onto more unforgiving courses like Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass.

Viktor Hovland (-120, bet365) over Xander Schuaffele (3-way)

This includes the tie but I like this bet enough to take Hovland with the bigger odds and risk losing if they tie. Simply put, Hovland offers us a better upside (and win equity) over Schauffele and also carries a more consistent Florida record. While he’s coming off a solid Genesis, Schaufelle has played this event just twice in his career (T24 - 2020, T39 - 2023) with muted efforts on both occasions.