In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:

Banana Splits: 2024’s quarter-pole marks the perfect spot for some leaguewide trend checks. Listen, you’ll never catch me quoting a team's win-loss record from the third Sunday after the vernal equinox—but it’s OK to wonder where we stand. The NFL’s well-recorded drop in offense out of the gate has started to turn around lately.

However, lower scoring doesn't necessarily mean more unders, as pricing is set on a sliding scale to match market demand. And what about home teams and favorites? If my large-field Survivor tournaments are any indication, they’ve mattered less than ever. Let’s check the videotape …

  • Home Teams: 33-31 outright W/L (51.6%), 27-34 against the spread (44.3%)
  • Away Teams: 31-33 outright W/L (48.4%), 34-27 against the spread (55.7%)
  • Favorites: 37-26 outright W/L (58.7%), 27-34 against the spread (44.3%)
  • Underdogs: 26-37 outright W/L (41.3%), 34-27 against the spread (55.7%)
  • Overs: 60-66 (47.6%)
  • Unders: 66-60 (52.4%)

So far 2024 is a sharp’s world—league parity has been on full display as low scoring and underdogs remain the most profitable spots to park cash. Things may turn around in the grand scheme, but I think what we’re seeing has been inevitable.

Widespread legalization of betting opens a once-forbidden market to novices and the corporations that prey on them. The weight of public pressure keeps the vast majority of closing lines a few points closer to the favorite than perhaps they should be.

I’m not overreacting, or even really reacting at all to any of this—but I am glad I ran the data. So keep your head on a swivel and we’ll check back in a few weeks to re-take the temperature for more—or different—trend changes.

Access All of Week 5’s NFL Odds HERE

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Thursday Night Charts
  • The New York Prop Exchange

Thursday Night Charts 🧠📊—Expected Points Added

Each week I’ll be presenting the league through the lens of a single image, and it'll typically appear in the Wednesday edition of the newsletter, but this week, we’re bringing it to you on a Thursday.

While no one picture or stat can truly shoulder such a load, learning to take the temperature of each team’s offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) will sharpen your game—this per-play metric that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score. It provides an analytically dense, perspective-laden snapshot that is absolutely worth familiarizing yourself with. 

NOTE: Positive EPA is ideal on both sides of the ball—so in this specific case below, the closer to the upper-right corner, the better a team’s combined performance on both sides of the ball.

THE GOOD:

NO—Two tough losses in a row are taking public perception of a false breakout too far according to the advanced stats, and I agree. New Orleans still stands a great chance to win the division and make noise in the playoffs.

MIN—Thoroughly impressive thus far, every week seems to add more credence to the narrative these Vikings under Kevin O’Connell with Sam Darnold under center are for real. MVP and Coach Of The Year futures are in play.

BUF—The hardest aspect of analyzing football may be not continually reacting to the last thing you saw. Yes, the Ravens’ run game put the smackdown on Buffalo last weekend, but the Bills have not only shown competence in all phases, they have shown the ability to win in different ways.

THE BAD:

LAR—This kills me as a huge Sean McVay/Matthew Stafford fan, but injuries have destroyed the Rams' season so far. The offense continues to try and create magic while lacking explosivity, but that degree of leakiness on defense will hurt anyone.

CAR—Hey, the Panthers may still be bad but I’d consider them climbing out of the ugly category this early in the season a wild success. Whether or not they’ll wind up any good has yet to be seen, but right now you have to leave the light on for Dave Canales and Andy Dalton to keep doing their thing.

THE UGLY:

MIA—I understand the Dolphins’ cascading failure began by losing their QB. That said, the utter lack of a backup plan given Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion history leaves a lasting mark on my perception of McDaniel’s level of genius. It’s bad in Miami right now.

NE—Lots of industry heads, pundits, and the like expected the Patriots’ defense to anchor any chance for success, especially after a great Week 1 showing versus the Bengals. Well, that ship has begun to sail as the NE secondary keeps getting abused despite the presence of superstar CB Christian Gonzalez, making it impossible to back New England from a betting standpoint right now.

Dive Into More Play-Style Data From The Team Level

🏈 Get a Second Chance on Your First TD this Season at BetMGM!

BetMGM believes in second chances!

Did you miss a pro football bet on a first touchdown scorer? You can still earn your stake back in cash if that player scores the game’s second touchdown! BetMGM’s new “Second Chance” promotion allows anyone who places a straight bet on a player to score the game’s first touchdown to automatically win back their wager if that player scores the second touchdown.

Sign up now and take advantage of BetMGM’s incredible offer for new users: up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if your first bet doesn’t win. That’s right, place your first bet, and if it doesn’t hit, BetMGM will cover you with up to $1,500 in bonus bets.

TNF Sharps Are Hitting the Road: Buccaneers at Falcons

Divisional rivals clash on Thursday night when the Falcons host the Bucs to kick off the NFL's Week 5.

The public is hoping to finally have a big week. Did you know NFL public sides (51%+ of bets) are now 22-38-2 ATS after Week 4? I guess if you're betting a lot of the public sides (like me), you're well aware.

Yikes. 

The Falcons started the week as a 3-point favorite, but that line has moved to Falcons -1.5 in most places, with a total of 44 as of Wednesday Night.

We watched the Sharps we track for you at SharpHunter bet on the Bucs most of the week. But as of Thursday morning, we show a One-Bag Sharp Score on the Falcons -1.5. 

I'm surprised the Sharps want to bet the home favorite here. I know I don't.

The Bucs have been one of the more surprising teams in the NFL at 3-1. One of the big reasons has been a pass defense that's allowed just one TD in the air. Now that defense gets a CLEARLY hobbled Kirk Cousins on a short week. I like that matchup.

On the other side, the Tampa offense faces a Falcons defense missing its starting middle linebacker Troy Andersen—who had 17 tackles and a pick last week. We know the Bucs want to play the game slowly and if they can run the ball against the 20th-ranked run defense (DVOA), they can control this game from the opening kickoff.

Oh yeah, your primetime Kirk Cousins trends: In 43 primetime starts, he's 18-24-1 SU and 17-26 ATS. Not good!

Sounds like the Sharps are OK with that. Not me. If I'm betting on the game, I'll take the Bucs here on TNF.

Projections for TNF Players (and all of Week 5) are LIVE!

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

📺 Claudia and Thor cooked up some College Football Week 6 Best Bets, Player Props, and More!

👀 Ready to hold that Tiger? Thor delivers his Week 6 CFB Best Bets and Props.

🐷 Our team of Fantasy Life experts winners get into a little Pigskin Pick’em for all 16 games in Week 5.

🤔 Should we be on the Dirty Birds on TNF?

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️ —Buy Sterling!

Trying to get off a little bit of a schneid lately and hopefully I’ve identified a great spot to bust the slump tonight on Thursday Night Football.

The (3-1) Bucs head down to the dirty-dirty to face the (2-2) Falcons. I’m with the books, taking a mostly non-committal approach here—spreads are all within two points with moneylines listed close to even money.

Heading into last week, Tampa Bay, a pass-first offense, had already lost its No. 3 wideout Jalen McMillan to injury. Then, early in their Week 4 matchup with Philadelphia, a concussion forced Trey Palmer from the game. Can you guess who wound up leading the Buccaneers’ WR room in second-half deep targets, receptions, and explosive play rate? If you guessed veteran blast from the past Sterling Shepard, you’d be correct.

Shepard played in 100% of 3-WR sets for TB in the second half. That role should resume this weekend after showing a +13 mph average speed according to NextGen and the capability to run routes of different depths aligned from anywhere (below). Let’s not forget it was never talent level that hindered his career.

Tampa goes nose-to-nose with Jimmy Lake and his Falcons, who run a lot of 5-DB, zone-heavy, Cover-3 schematics. My hope is with most attention going to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin that Shepard can operate on those low-aDOT in, hitch, and corner routes he can run from either side.

So why is Sterling Shepard’s reception prop only at o2.5 as a full-time player on a Baker Mayfield-led offense dropping back ~38 times a game? I’m not sure but I’m not waiting for it to jump. Ladder climbers should note there’s a non-zero chance Shepard makes 6 grabs in this one.

THE BET: Sterling Shepard Over 2.5 Receptions (+105) bet365

Be sure to follow along with my NFL prop bets with our Free NFL bets tracker!