In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
Bad Team Bias: Sports is chock-full of narratives and stats just waiting to be pulled and spun like candy until it’s sweet enough for consumption.
The problem is that, unlike candy, teams (even the bad ones) strive for improvement—creating a dynamic environment in which they’re constantly trying to change that flavor to something more palatable.
Though you may have already run a taste test and viscerally wretched, you must also be weary of permanently marrying priors going forward. Assigning infinite incompetence to professionals is one of the most common mistakes sports bettors make, who then often double-down on the error and the losing commences. Statistics are great. I mean, imagine a geek like me holding a different opinion. The thing is, stats are merely a descriptor of the past—and it’s how we then apply them that separates the wheat from the chaff.
So pump the brakes next time you’re sure the Panthers will faceplant no matter the quarterback, or go under on the Athletics' win total after the worst season in memory. Jerseys are fun to look at or wear, but they do not make for strong research libraries. If I’ve said it twice, I’ve said it a thousand times—be like water.
Make sure to check out our team’s Free NFL bets in our Bet Tracker for Week 4!
What’s in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
- The New York Prop Exchange
Look Into My Crystal Ball🔮—Sex Panther
Now that we’re properly prepared to ignore persuasions regarding Carolina on name value alone, the public’s still way too low on these cats.
All offseason we watched the Panthers’ front office upgrade the roster across the board, desperate to create a can't-miss environment for teetering former first-overall pick Bryce Young. Well, that idea came and went quick as a wink—though I do credit the organization for the courage to comprehend the sunken cost fallacy.
Let’s have some fun with small samples. What if … the Panthers actually did a great job in building a successful roster, except for the most critical position? And changing that crucial cog to a league-average game asset vaults a downtrodden bottom-feeder into viability?
Well, it would look just like Sunday’s output—a team that dropped 36 points despite imperfect play on top-3 finishes in plays run and yards gained. Oh, and one of only 10 300-plus passing-yard performances this year.
Is Andy Dalton the next John Elway or Dan Marino? The answer’s a definitive no and who cares. One arena where Carolina succeeded even with Young under center was protecting the passer. It should be enough to get the second coming of the Red Rifle and this iteration of CAR to 21 points. Not to do too good of a job tying in all of today’s themes but undeserved jerse-based bias goes both ways—and my money says we’re seeing precisely that for the winless Bengal defense.
Lou Anarumo’s defensive unit has lost multiple D-linemen and riding the struggle bus in both phases—his Bengals are bottom-3 in rush success and completion rate allowed.
Oof.
Their inability to get stops increasingly manifests in terms of efficiency stats, causing major wear-down late in games. And you never want to wind up buried at the bottom of my charts with the other defensive outliers. You know opposing coordinators are reading daily, just licking their chops to attack that vulnerability. Look where Cincinnati ranks in efficiency, yikes (below).
(Remember, betting on the Sex Panthers works 60% of the time … every time.)
THE BET: Carolina Panthers TT o20.5 points (-118) MGM
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The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Marvelous Marvin
So as not to be predisposed in any one direction, I tend to scrape stats and begin my analysis before even looking at the betting board. That way I have my own idea of where prices should be before discerning where value lies. Then, when I go shopping it gives me an unbiased and informed point of reference.
Anyway, let’s take this time to appreciate the Commander's defense—it takes guts to refuse to cave into the propaganda regarding the leaguewide drop in offense. Kidding aside, Washington’s objectively terrible, they can’t stop anyone.
The macros on the WAS D are so bad ( HOW BAD ARE THEY?) ...
via TruMedia
- 377.3 Yards Allowed/Game (29th)
- 6.6 Yards Allowed/Play (31st)
- -0.31 EPA/Play (32nd)
- 50.7 Yards Allowed/Drive (32nd)
- 3:36 Time Of Possession/Drive (31st)
- 69.6% Drive Success (32nd)
- -0.53 EPA/Dropback (32nd)
- 127.6 Opposer Passer Rating (32nd)
- 255.7 Passing Yards Allowed/Game (31st)
- +20 Yard Completions (T-29th)
… rookie phenom Marvin Harrison should feast. Despite mostly only lining up wide left on targeted routes (image left), that’s been a weak spot for the Commanders anyway (image right).
Plus we get Kyler Murray’s strong home splits to get us passed a measly 73 receiving yards? Easy, peezy, lemon squeezy. Sign me up …
THE BET: Marvin Harrison o72.5 receiving yards (-112) DKSB
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
✍️ A mispriced QB rushing prop leads the Week 4 slate. Freedman’s top props.
🔑 The keys to a million-dollar lineup are yours. Week 4 NFL DFS plays.
👀 The best QB on the planet? Not really, but you can imagine!
🤑 When they find paydirt … you find a payday.
💰 Don’t finalize your betting slip without using our NFL Game Model to compare our projections to available lines.
📊 Speaking of projections … we have projections for every player on Sunday’s slate, as well as Monday’s primetime doubleheader.
The Sharps Down Under: Eagles vs. Buccaneers
Presented by Sharp Hunter
By Mike Mutnansky of Sharp Hunter
Week 4 in the NFL and we have injuries everywhere and low totals across the board.
Be careful out there.
The Sharp bettors we track at SharpHunter have ideas about many of the games on the board this week, including a rematch of last year's playoff game that saw the Bucs end the season for the Eagles.
We get the rematch in Tampa on Sunday where the total sits between 42.5 and 43.5, depending on where you're betting as of Saturday afternoon.
At SharpHunter, we're showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score on the UNDER, even at 42.5.
I'm excited to bet with the Sharps on this one.
We’ll start with the Bucs, who operate at FTN’s slowest neutral point differential pace in the NFL. They’ve run no-huddle just 1.1% of the time—4th lowest in the league. They want to play slow, even if they’re OK with letting Baker Mayfield throw it around.
The Eagles come into the weekend without DeVonta Smith (concussion), and both A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson were ruled out early Sunday after being game-time decisions. Already running the ball at the 9th-highest percentage in the NFL, the Eagles are even more likely to pound it here if all these guys miss.
Between the slow pace, the intent to run the ball, and the injuries, I'm playing the under here down to 42.5. The Sharps like that, too.
