In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:

Bad Team Bias: Sports is chock-full of narratives and stats just waiting to be pulled and spun like candy until it’s sweet enough for consumption.

The problem is that, unlike candy, teams (even the bad ones) strive for improvement—creating a dynamic environment in which they’re constantly trying to change that flavor to something more palatable.

Though you may have already run a taste test and viscerally wretched, you must also be weary of permanently marrying priors going forward. Assigning infinite incompetence to professionals is one of the most common mistakes sports bettors make, who then often double-down on the error and the losing commences. Statistics are great. I mean, imagine a geek like me holding a different opinion. The thing is, stats are merely a descriptor of the past—and it’s how we then apply them that separates the wheat from the chaff.

So pump the brakes next time you’re sure the Panthers will faceplant no matter the quarterback, or go under on the Athletics' win total after the worst season in memory. Jerseys are fun to look at or wear, but they do not make for strong research libraries. If I’ve said it twice, I’ve said it a thousand times—be like water.

Make sure to check out our team’s Free NFL bets in our Bet Tracker for Week 4!

What’s in today’s newsletter?

  1. Look Into My Crystal Ball
  2. The New York Prop Exchange
  3. Sharp Hunter's Game of the Week

Look Into My Crystal Ball🔮—Sex Panther

Now that we’re properly prepared to ignore persuasions regarding Carolina on name value alone, the public’s still way too low on these cats.

All offseason we watched the Panthers’ front office upgrade the roster across the board, desperate to create a can't-miss environment for teetering former first-overall pick Bryce Young. Well, that idea came and went quick as a wink—though I do credit the organization for the courage to comprehend the sunken cost fallacy.

Let’s have some fun with small samples. What if … the Panthers actually did a great job in building a successful roster, except for the most critical position? And changing that crucial cog to a league-average game asset vaults a downtrodden bottom-feeder into viability?

Well, it would look just like Sunday’s output—a team that dropped 36 points despite imperfect play on top-3 finishes in plays run and yards gained. Oh, and one of only 10 300-plus passing-yard performances this year. 

Is Andy Dalton the next John Elway or Dan Marino? The answer’s a definitive no and who cares. One arena where Carolina succeeded even with Young under center was protecting the passer. It should be enough to get the second coming of the Red Rifle and this iteration of CAR to 21 points. Not to do too good of a job tying in all of today’s themes but undeserved jerse-based bias goes both ways—and my money says we’re seeing precisely that for the winless Bengal defense.

Lou Anarumo’s defensive unit has lost multiple D-linemen and riding the struggle bus in both phases—his Bengals are bottom-3 in rush success and completion rate allowed.

Oof.

Their inability to get stops increasingly manifests in terms of efficiency stats, causing major wear-down late in games. And you never want to wind up buried at the bottom of my charts with the other defensive outliers. You know opposing coordinators are reading daily, just licking their chops to attack that vulnerability. Look where Cincinnati ranks in efficiency, yikes (below).

(Remember, betting on the Sex Panthers works 60% of the time … every time.)

THE BET: Carolina Panthers TT o20.5 points (-118) MGM

Make sure to get the best price on all of your props this week with our NFL Prop Finder Tool!

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The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Marvelous Marvin

So as not to be predisposed in any one direction, I tend to scrape stats and begin my analysis before even looking at the betting board. That way I have my own idea of where prices should be before discerning where value lies. Then, when I go shopping it gives me an unbiased and informed point of reference.

Anyway, let’s take this time to appreciate the Commander's defense—it takes guts to refuse to cave into the propaganda regarding the leaguewide drop in offense. Kidding aside, Washington’s objectively terrible, they can’t stop anyone. 

The macros on the WAS D are so bad ( HOW BAD ARE THEY?) ...

via TruMedia

  • 377.3 Yards Allowed/Game (29th)
  • 6.6 Yards Allowed/Play (31st)
  • -0.31 EPA/Play (32nd)
  • 50.7 Yards Allowed/Drive (32nd)
  • 3:36 Time Of Possession/Drive (31st)
  • 69.6% Drive Success (32nd)
  • -0.53 EPA/Dropback (32nd)
  • 127.6 Opposer Passer Rating (32nd)
  • 255.7 Passing Yards Allowed/Game (31st)
  • +20 Yard Completions (T-29th)

… rookie phenom Marvin Harrison should feast. Despite mostly only lining up wide left on targeted routes (image left), that’s been a weak spot for the Commanders anyway (image right). 

Plus we get Kyler Murray’s strong home splits to get us passed a measly 73 receiving yards? Easy, peezy, lemon squeezy. Sign me up …

THE BET: Marvin Harrison o72.5 receiving yards (-112) DKSB 

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

✍️ A mispriced QB rushing prop leads the Week 4 slate. Freedman’s top props.

🔑 The keys to a million-dollar lineup are yours. Week 4 NFL DFS plays.

👀 The best QB on the planet? Not really, but you can imagine!

🤑 When they find paydirt … you find a payday.

💰 Don’t finalize your betting slip without using our NFL Game Model to compare our projections to available lines.

📊 Speaking of projections … we have projections for every player on Sunday’s slate, as well as Monday’s primetime doubleheader.

Sharps are on the UNDER: Lions @ Cardinals

Sunday's highest total game is in Arizona, with the Cardinals hosting the Lions. 

If you're playing DFS you're probably loading up on this game, right? Indoors, big offense on both sides. Lots of points! 

Well, the Sharps we track at Sharp Hunter are locking in on the UNDER.  We're showing a Three-Bag Sharp Score on the 51.5 total as of Saturday morning. 

I love points. I love high-scoring, back-and-forth games ... but I'm with the Sharps here. 

Arizona is the third-slowest team on offense, according to FTN Pace Stats. I could see them trying to run the ball and taking their time and effort to keep the Lions high-powered offense off the field. They've run the ball over 53% of the time this season, the sixth-highest in the NFL. That would help an under bet. 

Trends? Oh, the trends. 

Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 13-2 to the under. Last three years? 30-11 to the under. This year it's 3-0 to the under in totals over 50 or more per Action Network. 

I love offense, but I love money more. I'll tail the sharps here and play under 51.5.