In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
Be Like Water (again): As a receiving prop bettor deeply entrenched in pass-catching markets, it’s hard not to notice the precipitous drop in aerials leaguewide. How bad is it, you might wonder? Well, Big Johnny Stud’s here to do the dirty work so you won’t have to.
If you feel like you’re taking crazy pills, you aren’t. I dug through the annals of the Trumedia library, an entire decade and as of right now, 2024 marks the stone-cold lowest in:
- Pass Rate (59.0%) - Lowest since 2010
- Dropbacks/Game (35.0) - Lowest since recording began in 2000
- Completions/Game (19.8) - Lowest since 2007
- Passings Yards/Game (192.7) - Lowest since recording began in 2000
- EPA/Attempt (+0.10) - Lowest since recording began in 2000
- Air Yards/Attempt (7.3) - Lowest since recording began in 2006
- Yards/Attempt (6.9) - Lowest since 2008
- Yards/Completion (10.5) - Lowest since recording began in 2000
That said, it’s adjusting to adversity that defines us as traders. Being stubborn and intractable may be the single worst trait any bettor can express. So like they say, if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. Stick around and enjoy what may be the first in a line of many rushing props this season.
Make sure to check out our team’s Free NFL bets in our Bet Tracker for Week 3!
What’s in today’s newsletter?
- Running Against The Wind
- The New York Prop Exchange
Running Against The Wind 🏃🏽♂️🌪️🏈 —White-Knuckle Ride
The secret’s out … the Panthers stink again. You’d be hard-pressed to find a worse rushing defense, Carolina’s bottom-5 in both Defensive Rush EPA/Play and Opposing Rush Success rate (below).
They boast a -61 point differential somehow, through two weeks, worst by a country mile. Constantly being behind multiple scores allows opposing offenses to settle into their ground game throughout, predictably resulting in the second-most rushing yards allowed by the Panthers this season (below).
As your friendly neighborhood handicapper, I’m compelled toward transparency. You will not find a strong bull case for Zamir White or the Raiders’ ground game on the offensive spreadsheets—it’s bad with a capital B. They’re dead last in rush yards, yards/rush, rushing success rate, and bottom-5 in everything else.
However … football is a game of matchups.
Yes, Las Vegas faceplanted twice in terms of ground production. But not only was it against arguably the best run-stuffers in the NFL but also while playing from behind. If you believe in the omnipotence of the house or just the wisdom of the crowd, Las Vegas should be in the perfect game script at Allegiant Stadium for Zamir White.
And don’t get it twisted, White’s utilization is extremely specialized. He will totally dominate snap share in positive game scripts, split work in neutral situations, and straight-up play second fiddle when trailing.
If the Raiders can establish any type of lead, I’m expecting White to dust this line early, with shades of the RB who averaged over 99 RuYd/game across the final month of play last season. Let’s go.
THE BET: Zamir White Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115); BetMGM
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The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Akin For A Win
Eventually, I’ll learn to stop selling the impact of rational coaching short. Expectations for the Chargers couldn’t be much lower entering the season and I stood among the first to grab a shovel. Well, apparently my big mouth was all the motivation Jim Harbaugh needed—because the Chargers seem to have embraced the lower-scoring, knock-down drag-out version of the NFL prevalent in 2024.
Boy, the Bolts’ D has been flat-out dominant …
- 6.5 PPG (1st)
- 227.5 Yards Allowed/Game (2nd)
- +0.39 Defensive EPA/Play (1st)
- 18.1 Average Drive Distance (1st)
- 12.5% Opposing Drive Success (1st)
- 66% Tackle Success (2nd)
- 2.2 Snaps/Splash Play (T-1st)
... yet they’re still in the bottom 10 in terms of completions and frequency (below):
Why? If you guessed it comes part-and-parcel with the second-highest rate of two-high coverage in the league, you'd be correct (below). By backing up the DBs, LAC allows short passes underneath, relying on good tackling to succeed.
So now that I’ve seemingly set the Browns up for utter failure this Sunday, why on Earth am I going up against the Bolts’ D? Well, fortune favors the bold my friends (and I think there’s some discount meat left on the bone).
The Chargers send a ton of pressure, totally fine with the trade-off of immediately tackling slow-plodding wideouts or tight ends. Enter Jordan Akins, the only Brown at the TE position to earn a target this year not named David Njoku (OUT, ankle).
Akins steps into an every-down role with extremely low expectations (just how we like it). Kidding aside, Akins went (3-27) Week 1 with Njoku playing.
So why is a projectable full-time player running a full arsenal of routes (above) with success near the line of scrimmage (below) only set at 2.5 receptions?
I don’t know, but I’m not waiting around with my hands in my pockets to find out …
THE BET: Jordan Akins Over 2.5 Receptions (+105) DKSB
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
The keys to a million-dollar lineup are yours. Week 3 NFL DFS plays.
Decoding the KC backfield could be the keys to the betting slate. We have your answer.
When they find paydirt … you find a payday.
Don’t finalize your betting slip without using our NFL Game Model to compare our projections to available lines.
Speaking of projections … we have projections for every player on Sunday’s slate.
Sharps are on the UNDER: Lions @ Cardinals
- Presented by Sharp Hunter
- By Mike Mutnansky of Sharp Hunter
Sunday's highest total game is in Arizona, with the Cardinals hosting the Lions.
If you're playing DFS you're probably loading up on this game, right? Indoors, big offense on both sides. Lots of points!
Well, the Sharps we track at Sharp Hunter are locking in on the UNDER. We're showing a Three-Bag Sharp Score on the 51.5 total as of Saturday morning.
I love points. I love high-scoring, back-and-forth games ... but I'm with the Sharps here.
Arizona is the third-slowest team on offense, according to FTN Pace Stats. I could see them trying to run the ball and taking their time and effort to keep the Lions high-powered offense off the field. They've run the ball over 53% of the time this season, the sixth-highest in the NFL. That would help an under bet.
Trends? Oh, the trends.
Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 13-2 to the under. Last three years? 30-11 to the under. This year it's 3-0 to the under in totals over 50 or more per Action Network.
I love offense, but I love money more. I'll tail the sharps here and play under 51.5.
