The action doesn't stop when the slate locks … John Laghezza is here to bring you his best bets and picks for the Week 13 afternoon slate:
In case you missed my betting breakdown of the Week 13 early (1:00 PM ET) games, you can find that edition of the Betting Life Newsletter here (subscribe while you're at it!).
As we move along through the Week 13 slate, I have broken out the late slate and Sunday Night Football game below with my position on each game.
I present to you, the Sunday NFL Blitz, Part Deux …
Week 13 NFL Best Bets and Picks - Afternoon Slate
Rams (5-6) at Saints (4-7) Pick
As a Saints fan, I’d be cheering for a halt to their incomprehensible and downright detrimental two-game win streak. Wins against two obviously flawed teams injected what I believe is a false sense of promise in the Saints’ fanbase. I get they’re only two games off the division lead but it has little to do with being good—the NFC South is terrible as a whole.
Any division winner’s almost guaranteed to get bounced Wild Card weekend. Regardless, they’ll face a healthy Rams squad determined to get back on track, battling for a playoff bid of their own. I’m not buying what these Saints are selling on defense; it's as simple as that.
Back-to-back wins allowing 6.3 yards/play? Talk about unsustainable. Give Matthew Stafford that much rope and you’ll pay the price. My money’s on nature correcting.
LEAN: LAR -2.5
Eagles (9-2) at Ravens (8-4) Pick
For all the guff I’ve given schedule makers over the years, I want to tip my cap this time around. It feels like we’ve been treated to a weekly must-watch game in the usually unwatchable afternoon window. Eagles and Ravens. Lamar and Hurts. If you can’t get excited about this one without betting, you need to get checked for a pulse.
I’ve been on record for weeks that Philadelphia, winners of seven straight, is my Super Bowl pick barring serious injury. It’s all about the balance between phases, where the Eagles earn my clear edge. I love the Ravens. I love Lamar Jackson. But you will always have a tough time selling me on the idea you’re a legitimate championship contender with arguably the league’s worst secondary.
And make no mistake, that unit will be tested—Harbaugh’s left with no choice but to stack the box against the backfield duo of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Talk about nightmare fuel for opposing coordinators. Good chance the Eagles outlast Baltimore to win outright.
LEAN: PHI +3 (-120)
Buccaneers (5-6) at Panthers (3-8) Pick
Unironic excitement for Panthers’ football in the year 2024, what a world. Wins against the Saints and Giants are one thing, hanging with the world champs and almost squeaking out a win is something entirely different.
Whispers of Bryce Young’s viability are hitting normal conversation levels. Personally, I’m not quite there yet but am open to having my mind changed in spots like this. Sure, Tampa fell flat through the toughest part of their schedule, going winless against BAL, ATL, KC and SF. They also bounced back big time, coming in hot off the bye with the return of Mike Evans, running the Giants out of their own building. I’m sure large swaths of the public expect Carolina to faceplant—but I’m not so certain. Tampa’s unable to stop anyone through the air all season. If Dave Canales shows up with half the scheme as last week versus Steve Spagnuolo, Bryce Young may turn heads today.
LEAN: TB/CAR O46.5
Best Bets and Picks - Week 13 Sunday Night Football
49ers (5-6) at Bills (9-2) Pick
I’ll have to remember to pace myself today with another primetime marquee matchup on deck. Waited as long as I could for reports out of San Fran and great news—it appears QB Brock Purdy will start tonight. Glad to see the Niners at least getting a little healthier as their playoff chances dwindle, despite missing critical linemen Trent Williams and Nick Bosa.
Though only a game and a half out of the last Wild Card spot, there are still four teams to leapfrog. No easy feat. I get Buffalo as the listed favorite at home but six points to this SF team with its back against the wall seems generous. Upstate New York’s expecting freezing temps and a few feet of snow with high winds all weekend—what it’s like outside at kickoff is yet to be seen.
I’m keeping my powder dry until a little more information presents itself.
LEAN: AGAINST THE WALL, MONEY SAFELY SECURED IN MY WALLET
