This Thursday night we go back to New York for another divisional battle between the Giants and Cowboys. Despite New York being as long as +1000 to win the NFC East before the season began, the Giants enter this game with the same 1-2 record as Dallas, which has allowed 72 points over their last two games. 

Betting Preview for Giants vs. Cowboys

Daniel Jones enters this week ranked 23rd in EPA per play among all qualifying QBs. That's just two spots above Dak Prescott, who has had a miserable start to the season and is currently completing just 60% of his passes, which is about 6-7% under his career average. 

Prescott has not gotten much help from his receiving core to date. CeeDee Lamb, who looks a little less springy after missing most of the preseason, is currently second to last in average separation on the season. 

Dallas will likely rebound offensively soon, but the key on Thursday will be on defense, where they have been exposed on the ground multiple times. The Cowboys come in ranked dead last in EPA per rush as a defense and will  have to deal with a new wrinkle in rookie Malik Nabers, who may be the single-most talented WR in the league at the moment — and is only going to harder to defend as he gets more reps under his belt. 

Dallas won both meetings by big margins last season (40-0; 49-17), but this year’s Giants squad has different faces, more talent and has looked competitive in their last two games. So will Danny Dimes and crew get some revenge in Week 3 and push Dallas fans a step closer to insanity? Let’s dive into the bets and find out. 

Injury Updates - Giants vs. Cowboys TNF

Giants:

  • CB Adoree' Jackson - OUT
  • CB Dru Phillips - OUT
  • WR Darius Slayton - QUESTIONABLE

Cowboys:

  • CB Caelen Carson - QUESTIONABLE
  • S Markquese Bell - QUESTIONABLE

The injury report is small but significant for the Giants. Rookie CB Dru Phillips has played extremely well this season and was likely going to be tasked with covering CeeDee Lamb, a matchup the Giants would have welcomed. Now Lamb is likely to face backup Isaiah Simmons, which pushes the advantage back to Dallas. 

Additionally, the Giants lost more depth in their secondary with Adoree Jackson being ruled out this week, giving them less room for error or ability to adjust to in-game injuries. Lamb has struggled to start the season, but this is a clear bounce-back spot against a wounded secondary. 

Betting Odds for Giants vs. Cowboys

  • Giants +6.0 (-112 DraftKings) / Cowboys -6.0 (-108; DraftKings) 
  • O/U: 45.0

The spread in this game opened at 7.0, moved all the way down to 4.5 after Dallas loss to the Ravens but has moved back to 6.0, partially on the Phillips/Jackson injury news. 

I’m not super bullish by any means, but now that the number has moved back to 6.0, the Giants would be the side for me here. Daniel Jones has looked fine the last two weeks as he works his way back from injury and is using more of his weapons with Malik Nabers opening up the field for Wan’Dale Robinson and others. 

I initially liked the under on the 45.0 total, but with the Giants' injuries on defense I’m prone to just pass on that. Primetime unders have continued to crush this year (7-4 to the under), but with the Giants likely to allow more big plays in the secondary I’m not prone to forcing a bet, and like focusing on props instead. 

Best Bets for Giants vs. Cowboys - Week 4 Thursday Night Football

  • Theo Johnson Over 1.5 receptions (-135; FanDuel)
  • Theo Johnson Anytime TD (+675; FanDuel)
  • FL+ Proj: 2.2 rec

As mentioned, the presence of Malik Nabers is opening up the field for some of the other New York receivers, and Johnson is likely to benefit more and more from Nabers’ greatness as the season wears on. Johnson had a near TD in Week 3 and managed a 78% route rate, his highest of the season. 

Johnson has yet to catch more than one pass in a game, but he’s the only Giants TE who is running passing routes consistently and seems likely to breakout with a multi-catch game soon.

We have him projected for 3.4 targets and 2.2 receptions in this game, and based on his utilization to date, those numbers seem solid. 

In addition to the over 1.5 receptions, which I logged in our Free bet tracker on Tuesday, I don’t hate the idea of adding an anytime TD on Johnson into the mix either. He saw his first end zone target last week and is a massive +675 on FanDuel to score. 

  • Parlay: CeeDeeLamb Over 6.5 rec + Over 80.5 rec yards (+135; bet365)

This spot is turning out to be a complete goldilocks scenario for CeeDee Lamb (and anyone who owns shares of him in fantasy). The Giants secondary is down their best corner and also down a depth player. Lamb has had trouble separating this far but is not likely to encounter many issues getting open this week. 

I’m going against our projections a little, which are still tepid on Lamb, but compensating by using Lamb in a same-game parlay at better odds, where he hits both his yards and receptions. Lamb went for 81 or more yards and 7.0 or more receptions in nine of his 18 starts last year, one of which was against the Giants in Week 10 (where they were semi-competitive). 

I expect the Giants to be more competitive this Thursday, which should force Prescott into more dropbacks and give Lamb a chance for his first breakout game of 2024.