Week 1 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets For Bills @ Jets.
This game is a great way to end the week and will undoubtedly have tons of impact on fantasy football leagues and the futures market for bettors.
After two failed attempts at drafting a franchise quarterback, the Jets finally caved and went the free-agent route this summer, bringing in Aaron Rodgers for 2023.
Whether this is a one-year deal or a multi-year fling is unknown to anyone but Rodgers’ inner self, but he should help make the Jets infinitely better for 2023.
New York already had a top-five unit on defense and is breeding a couple of studs at RB and WR in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.
Whether it will be enough to take down the Bills remains to be seen.
Buffalo is chasing its fourth division title in a row this season. While they remain the class of the division, the beating they took from the Bengals in the playoffs last year certainly exposed some weakness – and likely made the Jets' decision to go after a player like Rodgers a little easier.
So, who will take this inaugural divisional game, and which players will shine brightest? Keep reading as we’ll get into the spread, total, and player prop bets below.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
- Spread: Bills -1.5 (-115, BetMGM); Jets +1.5 (-105, BetMGM)
- Total: 45.5
- Moneylines: Bills -130, Jets +110
There isn’t much injury news to keep an eye on for this game, but it’s worth mentioning that the Jets have three key players listed as questionable.
Tackles Mekhi Beckton and Duane Brown both practiced in full on Saturday and look likely to play, as does running back Breece Hall, who also logged a full practice.
Hall is certainly a pivotal player for the Jets, and the Bills defense is likely glad they are seeing him this early in the season before he fully recovers from an ACL tear.
Buffalo avoided Hall last year in both of their matchups against the Jets, but they did allow Michael Carter to put up 6.35 yards per carry against them in Week 9. If Hall does make the Adrian Peterson-like Wolverine comeback, this game could end up being a repeat of what we saw in the conference championship game from 2022, where the inefficient Joe Mixon went off for 105 yards on 20 carries.
Of course, even if Hall isn’t at peak effectiveness, or newly signed Dalvin Cook doesn’t work out, the Jets can now simply barrage Buffalo with an Aaron Rodgers to Garrett Wilson connection that looked fatality-inducing in the preseason.
On the Buffalo side, our Game Hub includes a feature from Jonathan Fuller, who gave a breakdown of the new players the Bills attack may feature in 2023.
Expect the backfield to be heavily dominated by James Cook and newly drafted TE Dalton Kincaid to be used primarily as the Bills' new slot receiver.
So, how is this one going to play out?
I’m undecided how I’ll play this game, but I like Matt LaMarca’s take from our Bet Tracker, who took the Jets at +2.5 in August.
The Jets beat the Bills in New York last season and limited Josh Allen to 4.62 adjusted yards per attempt in their two matchups.
Fading the Jets hype seemed like the sharp move when the Rodgers hype train took off in May, but the deeper you dive into these two teams, it’s honestly difficult to find many flaws with the Jets – other than perhaps their offense will be slightly rusty in the first couple of weeks as they work in new players.
Aug 26, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) celebrates his touchdown pass against the New York Giants during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
Even a slight increase in efficiency on offense should boost team morale, and they’re not getting much respect as home underdogs to start the season.
Divisional underdogs in Week 1 have also been a great bet historically, going 64-38-1 ATS since 2005. Home underdogs in week 1 have also been great investments of late, going 11-6 ATS since the start of 2021.
The Under is also looking like a prime wager.
In the Week 1 Sharp Report, we can see that the 45.5-point total has come down significantly after opening at 48.0. 56% of the tickets in this matchup have come on the under, but that side has also racked up 87% of the dollars.
If you don’t like taking the lower number on the game total, I also like looking at the first half under, which is set at 23.0 (-105) on BetMGM. Both offenses have new faces and both defenses are good at limiting the big plays.
I’d expect a conservative beginning from both teams as they try and get a feel for each other in Week 1.
Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets
We already have a bunch of bets up in Bet Tracker for this game.
Eliot Crist has been all over the Garrett Wilson props since they came out.
Wilson’s yardage line is currently set at 68.5 yards at BetMGM, and he’s also set at +145 for an anytime TD. I don’t go crazy with TD props, but I did mention Wilson as a potential TD target in the week 1 TD article.
Wilson’s +145 line is far better than Stefon Diggs’, which is set at +100 despite a tough matchup vs. Sauce Gardner. Regardless of how you play it, I like buying low on Wilson to start the year.
Sticking with TD props for a second, the +375 line on rookie Dalton Kincaid is also worth looking at.
Kincaid played on 71% of the snaps with Josh Allen and the first-team offense. He also saw usage in 11 personnel formations alongside Dawson Knox. The Bills clearly view Kincaid as more of a slot receiver than TE, and his current line in the TD department doesn’t reflect that.
There are some other interesting props on tertiary skill players to consider for this one.
Damien Harris projects out with 6.35 carries on Fantasy Life this week but only has a 5.5 rushing attempt prop on BetMGM.
James Cook, who should be the Bills' primary receiving back, is another potential over target, as his 14.5 receiving prop is also below our projections.
Then there is Khalil Shakir, who Matthew Freedman, our Head of Betting, took as an under play.
Shakir’s receiving prop opened at 13.5 yards, but that was taken down and currently sits at 9.5 yards. He’s fourth or fifth on the depth chart, and there is a shot he sees just a handful of snaps.
Aug 26, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10) warms up before a game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports
Bills at Jets Same-Game Parlay
As much as I wanted to put together some kind of degenerate SGP for the first Monday Night Football game of the season, I just couldn’t bring myself to include a Dalton Kincaid first-touchdown scorer bet or 100+ yards for Dalvin Cook.
I feel reasonably confident that these offenses will sputter at times, so starting with an under felt more responsible. And, if we're avoiding TD props, the under 45.5 total makes for a great bet to build around.
I also believe that Rodgers knows what he has in Wilson.
Wilson has a sub-70-yard receiving prop, but I included him and Rodgers to go over on more modest totals. If Rodgers has any success in the passing game, he’ll almost certainly be bringing Wilson along for 60+ yards.
To balance things out, I also put in a James Cook prop. Cook’s usage should be strong in Week 1, and he featured a ton in the preseason with the first-team offense. Neither Latavius Murray nor Damien Harris project as a receiving back and Cook could easily bust over 10 yards on a single play.
So there it is. A very modest SGP to start off Monday Night Football. If this one hits, I promise we’ll get more creative next week.
You can tail this SGP on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below and start betting today!
In the meantime, enjoy the first MNF game of the season, and make sure you check back regularly on the Game Hub and Bet Tracker for Week 2 updates.
