Ravens -2.5 (-115; bet365) vs. Bills +2.5 (-105; bet365) 46.5

The Ravens and Bills meet on Sunday Night Football this week in a matchup between two AFC powerhouses. The Ravens enter this game fresh off their first win of the season over the Dallas Cowboys. Baltimore dominated most of the game but its secondary did allow the Cowboys to move the ball late in the game and make it much closer than it should have been. Defensively, the Ravens rank just 26th in EPA per play on defense and 27th in EPA per dropback. 

Buffalo comes in at 3-0 and won its third game in a row in dominant fashion over the struggling Jaguars last Monday Night. Josh Allen enters this game as the current favorite for MVP, with his odds sitting at +225 for the award with Buffalo’s offense ranking first in EPA per play and first in EPA per dropback. 

On the surface, this matchup looks like trouble for the Ravens, who have struggled to be a lockdown unit on defense without Mike Macdonald. Lamar Jackson is still playing at an elite level, although he’s done most of his damage as a runner and comes in averaging 84 rush yards per game. 

Despite Allen balling out thus far, the Ravens are still favorites at home, although the spread has stayed under an FG all week. Buffalo is the more public side in terms of volume of bets right now, but there has been some sharp money flow in on the Ravens; who could easily be 3-0 themselves with just a couple of small breaks. 

Still, even the most ardent of Ravens fans would admit that both the Chiefs and Raiders were able to exploit the Ravens' secondary in those losses and that they’ll need to be much better this week against Josh Allen. With the Bills offense playing at such a high level, any shot the Ravens have at improving to 2-2 will rely on them not only slowing down Allen, but potentially also creating some turnovers against him. That's something that has been much harder to do this year. 

With that in mind, it’s time to turn attention to the spread, total, and props and lock in some bets for this Sunday. 

Injury notes: 
Bills 

Ravens

Spread and Total

I didn’t make a play on the spread myself this week, but if you look into our free NFL bet tracker you can see that our own Mark Drumheller (+15.77u NFL) likes the Bills on the Moneyline this week. 

 

The Ravens defense has not been as efficient as it was last year with Mike Macdonald as their DC, and their inability to shut down the combo of Gardner Minshew and Brock Bowers led to their stunning Week 2 defeat to the Raiders. Last week, the same issues arose for Baltimore, but luckily for them, the Cowboys' defense decided not to show up to the game and allowed the Ravens to build an insurmountable lead (that their defense still almost blew). 

This week, on top of having to face the best player and best QB in the league through three weeks, they may also be depleted on offense with starting OL Andrew Vorhees doubtful and starting center Tyler Linderbaum questionable. Buffalo has done well at getting to the QB this season (12th sack rate) and the loss or limitation of two O-Linemen for the Ravens could make it harder for Derrick Henry to be a presence in this game. 

Add in a great matchup for Dalton Kincaid (see below) and the way Josh Allen is playing and Buffalo at anything North of +100 on the ML is a play for me as well. 

As for the total, this is a rare primetime spot where I would lean toward the over. Buffalo’s offense is a machine and the Ravens' regression on the defensive side of the ball is troublesome. They allowed Dallas 3 garbage-time TDs and have hit the over in all three of their games (depending on what number you bet the total at in the Week 1 game). 

The total for Week 4 currently sits at 46.5 and there is a chance with Allen and Jackson both playing that it may creep to 47 or bigger by game time. 

Ravens vs Bills Best Bets: 

Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 rec / Over 36.5 rec yards +130 (Week 4)

Kincaid’s numbers are down on the season but he has been a victim of circumstance this year. The Bills went run heavy in Week 1, then Kincaid missed portions of Week 2 with a minor injury. Last week, the Jaguars' corners were so bad that Allen was able to work his WRs downfield more than usual and Kincaid managed just 3 receptions for 41 yards (but did find the endzone).

This week, the targeting should finally shift his way—and potentially heavily. Baltimore is a complete funnel to the middle pass defense that has allowed 93.33 receiving yards per game to opposing TEs to start the year. Further, Baltimore’s run defense (2nd in EPA per rush) is still stout and figures to make the Bills pass the ball to beat them. Luckily for Buffalo, they have an absolute ball magnet at TE in Kincaid who is likely dying for targets. 

We have Kincaid projected for 4.1 rec and 41 rec yards and with such a juicy matchup, I prefer just combining the two overs into a SGP for a better payday. I entered this bet into our Free bet tracker as soon as Kincaid’s lines came out but would play this down to +120 or better. I’m also betting Kincaid’s alternate lines this week, specifically his receptions through 5+ (+130) / 6+ (+235) and 7+ (+475). 

Justice Hill Over 2.5 rec (+125; bet365)

Much like the matchup this week may dictate the Bills using more Kincaid, I also think the circumstances may force the Ravens to rely more on their pass-catching back in Justice Hill. Hill has shone as a receiver this season, producing 8.3 yards per catch, and has dominated the long down and distance (LDD) and 2-minute snaps this season (as seen in our weekly Utilization Report stats). 

 

The Ravens' O-Line issues also really worry me in this game and if Buffalo does start stuffing Henry or taking down Jackson, then Hill is likely to see more field and act as a quick outlet to keep Jackson upright. 

We have Hill projected for right around 2.5 catches but with the over on his 2.5 total set at +125, I’m fine playing for more upside in this spot. This is another prop where you could also look to combine yards and catches or play the alternate lines. Hill has played over 50% of the snaps in two of the Ravens' first three games and could approach a season high in touches if Baltimore can’t slow down Allen.