The NFL Draft never disappoints in the entertainment department, bringing us plenty of shocks and surprises that will have us talking about it for weeks.
Michael Penix Jr. to the Falcons commands a majority of the headlines, as well as the Bills head-scratching decision to trade back with their playoff rival.
Shocking day-one decisions play into our hands as sports bettors for day 2, creating value at the top of the board with heavily correlated outcomes looming large. If you didn’t get your fill with day one, day two has even more best bets for us to capitalize on.
2024 NFL Draft Day 2 - Best Bets
Buffalo Bills First Draft Pick Position: Wide Receiver (-300, DraftKings)
If it were not for the Atlanta Falcons making one of the biggest surprise picks of the draft in quite some time, then the Bills would get more attention for their head-scratching decision to trade back twice out of the draft.
Not only for trading out of the first round, but with their heated playoff rival in the Kansas City Chiefs that has been the main cause of their demise over the past few years.
To rub dirt back in their face, the Chiefs used their pick on a wide receiver, giving Patrick Mahomes another toy to play with.
Luckily for the Bills, their willingness to trade back signals that they are still potentially looking at the wide receiver market, sacrificing little value knowing that plenty of big names are ripe for the picking to start off day two.
When making the ideal pick, it’s not just enough to fill a positional need. Factoring in EDP (Expected Draft Position) also plays a major factor as you want to fill the position with a player expected to go near that pick indicating that you made the right choice.
The wide receiver room has a robust tier three crop of players that are labeled as late first-rounders/early second-rounders, giving the Bills the ability to recoup some trade value as well as avoid round-one contract stipulations.
They were wildly expected to draft a wide receiver in round one, and expectations remain the same to kick off day two with the 33rd pick of the draft. In terms of EDP, Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, and Troy Franklin fit the range, per GrindingtheMocks.
Adonai was initially believed to be the pick leading up to the draft before his stock started to crumble leading up to draft night, still serving as a valuable day-two pick for the Bills barren wide receiver room.
Drafting a wide receiver will also be vital at 33 as the Bills may find themselves void of starting-worthy options the next time they hear their name on the clock. Especially since plenty of teams drafting immediately after them like the New England Patriots, Washington Commanders, Los Angeles Chargers, and Tennessee Titans are all void of receiver talent as well and would be thrilled to pick up one of the bigger remaining names should the Bills look elsewhere.
The San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers also applied pressure to everyone else starting off day 2 by slightly reaching for their wide receivers, taking Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Legette to end Round 1 to thin out the crop of tier three receivers.
It may be heavily juiced, but backing heavily juiced bets for the NFL Draft is a common practice and should not deter you away when the choice is glaring. Be sure to line shop as odds for this wager wildly vary, sitting as high as -370 at FanDuel while DraftKings has them listed at -300.
Cornerback at +1300 is also an intriguing hedge with Cooper Dejean falling out of the first round, giving them an immediate patch to their cornerback void as well. I am just going to stick with wide receiver, expecting the Bills to take the well-rounded Mitchell or utility weapon McConkey.
First Running Back Drafted: 0.5u Each on MarShawn Lloyd (+1400, FanDuel) and Jaylen Wright (+3000, FanDuel)
It’s not exactly an ideal time to be a running back in the NFL as owners and GMs have wised up and shown a tendency to hold out on contracts and extensions knowing that running back positional value has been steadily declining. To make matters worse for this crop of running backs, no one in this draft stood out as a day-one talent like last year’s Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.
In my opinion, that only brings value to some running backs down the board as the disparity may not be as large as the odds imply. Jonathon Brooks is currently the favorite to go off the board first with Trey Benson slightly behind him. After those two, Blake Corum, MarShawn Lloyd, and Jaylen Wright follow suit pending which sportsbook you look at.
Brooks is the deserving favorite, most likely being a round-one target if he never suffered a season-ending injury. He’s a bull back who can truck over smaller defenders while carrying elite elusiveness in the open field as well.
He is also the top running back in our Rookie RB Model, possessing plenty of traits as the chart shows to make him worthy as the first choice in a bleak running back market.
The issue is that Brooks comes with a major red flag with the previously mentioned injury looming large. Brooks tore his ACL last season, withholding him from participating in the NFL Combine. His future looks bleak as an immediate participant at the start of the NFL season, potentially forcing teams to look elsewhere who need running back production right away.
His injury alone is enough for me to throw a dart at one of the larger-priced names down the board. Trey Benson is a deserving second choice, but his odds are too short for what I believe is a wide-open race for first. Corum doesn’t possess enough versatility and has a less-than-ideal build. That leads me to split a unit on both Lloyd and Wright.
Lloyd possesses an elite blend of speed and versatility, averaging 7.1 yards per attempt while averaging over 7 yards per catch as well. Even in a limited role, Lloyd put up plenty of big play highlights due to his elite athleticism for NFL GMs to drool over. His RAS score reflects that, scoring a 9.29 while clocking in a 40 time of 4.46 seconds.
In a league transitioning to a heavier dose of the pass, Lloyd may be the best option in this draft class to immediately produce right away. Factoring in a wisdom of the crowds' approach, multiple sharps connected to the draft have him as one of their top running backs on their board as well. That’s more than enough for me to take a stab at his long odds, taking advantage of a wide-open running back market where I wouldn’t be surprised with whoever goes first.
I will also pair my Lloyd position with a bet on Wright to go first, splitting a full unit by placing half a unit on each of them.
Speaking of athleticism, Wright oozes it as he dominated the combine. He finished with an RAS score of 9.81 and a 40-yard dash of 4.38 seconds. His speed was in full display in his line starting the year at Tennessee, finishing the year with 1,013 rushing yards on 137 attempts for an average of 7.4 yards per carry.
In a down year for the Tennessee offense due to a lack of a passing presence at quarterback, Wright managed to keep them competitive with his rushing production in the backfield. Tennessee finished the season ranked 38th in Rush Success Rate, 21st in PPA, and 28th in Explosiveness.
His flaw is the same as Lloyd’s, possessing limited starting tape which can scare away GMs from wanting to take an early pick on them. Still, the production alone is enough for either one of them to have a case as the first running back off the board. Especially with both of them being healthy while the top choice Jonathon Brooks may not even be fully available by the start of training camp
Split a unit and wager on both of them in what is a wide-open race for the first running back off the board, taking advantage of their long odds as Brooks may not have as much of a commanding lead as his number implies.
