Week 2 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Dolphins @ Patriots.
The Patriots and Dolphins come into Week 2 on opposite ends of the feel-good spectrum.
New England failed to pull off the comeback win in Week 1 – after getting down 16-0 against the Eagles after one quarter – but they did come through with a couple of morale victories that may help them down the road.
Their defense held up extremely well after the slow start and their offense looked more efficient in Week 1 than it did all of 2023.
While the 316-3-1 line produced by Mac Jones in Week 1 certainly rolls off the tongue nicely, it’s not as impressive to look at after the Eagles got lit up again in Week 2 by Kirk Cousins.
Much of Jones’ yardage came on short passes and he only produced a 5.9 yards per attempt mark. New England’s O-Line also allowed the second most QB pressures against in Week 1, and that’s potentially a concern against another solid pass rush in Miami.
Even though they were able to come out with a win last week, the Dolphins have a few concerns of their own.
They allowed 208 rush yards to the Chargers – who were supposed to be a pass-first offense – and now face another tough tandem in Ezekiel Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 2.
After the Patriots' defense held Jalen Hurts to just 5.15 yards per attempt last week, and pressured him 18 times, this game will mark the perfect test to see if Tua Tagovailoa’s (466-3-1) Week 1 performance was a flash in the pan or if it will be the norm for 2023.
Tagovailoa is currently hovering at +700 on BetMGM in MVP award futures, and remains second in odds behind only Patrick Mahomes (+600).
Ultimately, while the Dolphins come in as clear road favorites, the unit matchups in this game seem to pit strength vs. strength (Patriots defense vs. Dolphins offense) and weakness vs. weakness (Dolphins defense vs. Patriots offense).
The spread has stayed around 2.5 to 3.0 all week and there hasn’t been a huge sway to one side in the market, as of writing.
We’re expecting a close divisional battle, but how will this one work out? We’ll go through all the angles below and try to end things with a same-game parlay that puts our theories into practice.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
- Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-120, BetMGM)
- Total: 46.5
- Moneylines: Dolphins -145 / Patriots +120
As mentioned previously, bettors are expecting a close game.
This line opened at -2.5/+2.5 and has hovered at 3.0/+3.0 for long periods, and has rarely moved out of this 0.5-point range.
The Dolphins are clearly viewed as the superior team and for his career, Tua Tagovailoa is 4-0 ATS against New England.
Sep 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) sets to pass in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
However, the Dolphins also played a game in the PST time zone last week and teams traveling cross country (PST to EST) don’t typically fare that well the ensuing week.
Per Betlabs, teams that played in the PST and then moved to EST the following week are 43-49-2 ATS over the last 20 years.
From an injury perspective, there are a few key names on the Miami side worth watching as well.
Edge Jaelan Phillips hurt his back in practice on Friday and is now questionable. Tackle Terron Armstead is also questionable after getting in a couple of limited practices to end his week.
Armstead is one of the best tackles in the league and his presence would be a massive boost for the Dolphins O-Line – which, as mentioned, is up against a solid rush in New England.
The Patriots have some O-Line issues of their own.
Offensive tackle Trent Brown and guard Sidy Sow are listed as questionable after both missed practice all week (concussion). CB Jonathan Jones (ankle) also missed practice Friday and is questionable.
These are huge names for the Patriots as Brown and Sow played every snap in Week 1 and Jones is a starter who played 80% of the snaps in Week 1.
There are reasons to like both sides in this game.
The Patriots have a great pass rush led by Matthew Judon, but the Vic Fangio-led Miami defense should give the Patriots trouble of their own this week, especially if they’re missing two starters on the O-Line.
The difference between 2.5/3.0 feels like everything if you’re betting on this game. Miami is the better side, but the Patriots match up well against Miami in some key areas.
Assuming Terron Armstead is active, I’d give a slight lean to Dolphins -2.5.
The number may move on Armstead’s availability, but it does look like he’s trending towards playing.
If the number moves to 3.0 and Armstead isn’t active there is likely a good argument to take the points with the Patriots or stay off the line altogether.
This game has all the hallmarks of being a tight one-score affair, so if you’re not up for betting the spread we have some other matchups to look at from a player props perspective as well.
Player Props
The fantasy output for Rhamondre Stevenson wasn’t the best in Week 1, but his usage numbers were encouraging.
Stevenson played on 74% of the snaps and still took 60% of the carries – while remaining a huge part of the passing game.
His 50.5 rushing yard prop looks worth attacking to the over in this spot against such a porous rush defense.
Dec 18, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) scores on a 34-yard touchdown run in the second half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders defeated the Patriots 30-24. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The Dolphins allowed two Chargers RBs to go well over this number and even though there are concerns about the Patriots O-Line, you have to figure the very explosive Stevenson will have more room to break off a big run or two this week.
His 13.5-yard longest rush attempt has some over appeal as well.
On the Miami side, the targeting continues to favor the top two wide-outs.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle accounted for 50% of the team's target share in Week 1 with Hill posting an 11-215-2 line against the Chargers.
The Patriots did manage to keep Hill somewhat in check last season, so Waddle may be a good beneficiary of a Week 2 game plan by the Patriots' defense to stop Hill at any cost.
Waddle went over his current 60.5 receiving total in 11 of 18 games last season and would likely be the biggest beneficiary if CB Jonathan Jones misses this game – which he is trending towards doing.
On the TD front, I highlighted Stevenson’s upside in this game in our TD prop article for the week as well. There is obviously the Ezekiel Elliott factor to worry about near the goal line, but Stevenson remains the lead back and has lots of upside as a receiver.
Even if he misses out on a couple of red zone touches, Stevenson has proven he has enough explosiveness to score from outside the 20’s.
Same-Game Parlays
There is a lot of injury news still to come for this week’s game. So for the same-game parlay, I stayed away from the spread/moneyline and went heavy on the player props.
Both Jaylen Waddle and Rhamondre Stevenson are in solid spots and have lower totals after semi-slow starts to their season. The news on CB Jonathan Jones will obviously be worth watching but even if he plays, an ankle injury is likely to limit him and give the edge to Waddle in the game.
I also like mixing in a Kendrick Bourne under play – especially if we are going over on Stevenson for rushing. Obviously, a bigger workload for Stevenson means less passing in general and fewer chances for Bourne to earn targets.
He’ll also likely be facing the Dolphins’ top coverage man in Xavien Howard.
Miami did well at limiting the Chargers’ big-bodied receiver Mike Williams to just a 4-45 line in Week 1 and Bourne doesn’t have Justin Herbert throwing him the ball.
So there it is. A nice +665 same-game parlay for us to potentially sweat in what should be an intriguing Week 2 divisional matchup.
If you’re looking for more bets to consider for Sunday or Monday, be sure to check out the Week 2 Freedman’s Favorites article from head of betting Matthew Freedman – and our TD props article for the week as well.
You can tail the SGP on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below if your first bet does not win!
We’ll be back tomorrow to preview the MNF double-header, but until then, Good luck!
