Week 3 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets For Eagles-Buccaneers & Rams-Bengals
The week ends with yet another double-header on Monday Night Football.
The night starts with a visit to Tampa Bay, where the 2-0 Eagles will take on another undefeated team in the Buccaneers (2-0). Tampa Bay has covered in two straight games to start the year, but it is worth noting that they also sit at the top of the NFL luck ratings.
That’s not to say Tampa Bay has been playing poorly, but they did benefit from timely interceptions (often opponent-induced) to close out their first two games.
They’re unlikely to get the same treatment from the Eagles, who, despite being undefeated, have yet to hit full stride.
While the first game is relatively straightforward, the second has a lot more variables surrounding it. As of Sunday night, we still don’t know the status of Joe Burrow.
Burrow’s calf has thrown a massive wrench into betting markets, and it’s caused the spread – which opened at Bengals -6.5 – to plummet to its current standing of -2.5. Bettors clearly think there is a good chance Burrow misses this week, but if he does get ruled in, you will see the line make a decent move back toward the Bengals.
Whether Burrow plays or not, they’ll face a challenging task in stopping the Rams, who have been one of the most efficient offenses of the season.
Cincinnati has been good to spread bettors the past two seasons but are just 4-4 ATS since the start of last season as home favorites. It’ll be hard to have a definitive take on this game without any Burrow update, but we’ll break down both scenarios below.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Eagles -5.0 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 45.0
- Moneylines: Eagles -225 / Buccaneers +185
The line on this game opened up at Eagles -7.0 but shot down to -5.0 in the middle of the week as a few bigger bets seemed to come in on Tampa Bay. The line may have discounted the Buccaneers when it opened, but at 5.0, that discount has evaporated.
Again, while it’s hard to fault Tampa Bay for winning, they also haven’t had a murderer’s row of opponents to face. Last week against the Bears, Chicago had a chance to tie the game with about 6:00 minutes left before Justin Fields inexplicably decided to throw a screen pass into heavy traffic that got picked and returned for a TD.
From a matchup perspective, much of how this game goes for Tampa Bay will be determined by how they handle the Eagles' pass rush and defensive line. Philadelphia ranks second in pressures on the season and have been nearly impossible to run on, allowing just 3.5 yards per rush.
Baker Mayfield (average 2.4 seconds in the pocket) has been great at getting the ball out quickly and using downfield passes to Mike Evans to counteract pressure. He’s also only taken one sack on the season thus far. Evans is a hard cover for the Eagles, and it’s worth noting that he crushed them in the playoffs two seasons ago for a 9-117-1 line.
The good news for Philadelphia is that it appears they’ll have their bigger corner James Bradberry (concussion) back this week after practicing in full on Friday.
If Philadelphia can slow down Evans, look for RB Rachaad White (17-73, 5-30 in Week 2) to potentially show up with a big receiving day. Mayfield fed him five targets last week, and he should be willing to dump it off a ton again against this pass rush – who got burned for 6 receptions and 64 receiving yards by Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1.
On the Eagles side, this is a perfect spot for their passing game to get going. Outside of one broken play to Devonta Smith, the Eagles have yet to do much through the air. Jalen Hurts comes in averaging 6.5 yards per attempt – down from 7.9 last season. The Buccaneers rank 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed and may be without one of their cornerbacks again in Carlton Davis.
After there was noticeable consternation last week from AJ Brown on the sidelines, don’t be shocked if there is an obvious attempt to get him involved early while also taking advantage of this weaker coverage unit.
The injury report this week is key for Tampa Bay. If they don’t have Carlton Davis helping out against Brown on the backend, the big plays may come fast and furious for the Eagles. At the same time, Philadelphia has had some good news on defense this week that makes them hard to fade.
If the number drifts back to 5.0-5.5 (ideally 6.0) and Davis is active, I think Tampa Bay is worth taking as an underdog.
The Eagles' offense hasn’t been great out of the gate, and the Buccaneers have the tools to counteract some of the pressure the Eagles will bring. It’s also worth noting that while Hurts has been great covering as a favorite, he’s only 7-13 ATS on the road for his career.
It’s a big primetime spot for the 2-0 Bucs, so this could always end up being the game where Baker Mayfield turns back into a pumpkin, but if you read down below, we do have a player prop that may allow us to take advantage of that scenario as well.
Sep 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) runs with the ball against the Minnesota Vikings in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Eagles at Buccaneers Player Props
Rachaad White over 16.5 receiving yards (-110; BetMGM)
I love the way that the Buccaneers have committed to White thus far.
He’s got a snap rate above 75%, has taken over 55% of the carries, and saw his route participation rate and target share go up in Week 2. This total is the same as it was in Week 1 despite him catching five passes last week.
AJ Brown over 67.5 receiving yards (-115) and 100+ yards (+228; BetMGM)
This is mostly about playing the “squeaky wheel gets the grease” narrative. How many times have we seen it? A big-name wide receiver (I won’t say diva) gets into an argument with his coach/quarterback on the sideline because he isn’t getting the targets he wants. The next game? He gets four targets on the first drive.
Narrative aside, the Buccaneers' secondary is also a great target and has given up two 100-yard games to opposing WRs already. Brown hit for 100+ yards in five of 17 regular season games last year, so if you want to play for maximum upside, the bigger odds available on his alternate line makes sense in this spot.
Baker Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions (-115; BetMGM)
I mentioned this play above in the game breakdown. Mayfield has had numerous passes this year that could have been picked off, and his aggressiveness (while admirable) will get him into trouble against better secondaries. The Eagles secondary had an INT in 12 of 17 games last year (and should be at full strength for this game), so these odds look more than reasonable.
Jalen Hurts under 44.5 rush yards (-115; BetMGM)
The Buccaneers still have a formidable front seven. They held Justin Fields to just seven yards rushing last week and only had one opposing quarterback eclipse this mark against them last year.
Sep 14, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) passes the ball against the Minnesota Vikings during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
You can tail these props at BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to claim your First Bet Offer and start betting today!
Eagles at Buccaneers - Same Game Parlay
Since we can get +5.5 on the Buccaneers when creating our same game parlay, we’ll start with that. If the Buccaneers keep this game close, it should mean another decent output game through the air for Mayfield.
Playing him with Rachaad White overs and an AJ Brown over also gives us decent correlation and allows us to play two of the previously mentioned props for a +650 payout on BetMGM.
Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Bengals -1.5 (-115; BetMGM)
- Total: 43.5
- Moneylines: Bengals -130 / Rams +110
Don't be shocked if you’re reading this on Monday and the line has completely flipped.
Even at less than 100%, Joe Burrow (calf; questionable) being active will likely cause this line to shift dramatically toward the Bengals.
If Burrow does play, this is also an arrow-up game for both Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. Chase has had a poor start to the season, with zero catches longer than 13.0 yards. That is troublesome, considering he AVERAGED over 18.0 yards in his rookie year.
Some poor weather, Burrow being less than 100%, and the fact Tee Higgins was basically uncoverable last week can somewhat explain Chase’s production to date. However, the Bengals simply need more from their third-year superstar, especially against a weaker secondary like the Rams.
The Rams allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt last week, and while they didn’t allow a passing TD, that’s mainly because Christian McCaffrey was balling out for over 5.0 yards per carry on the ground.
Again, the Burrow factor is enormous, but we don’t want to oversell the Rams. This is still a thinner defense, and if the Bengals O-Line can hold up, a monster Chase game is certainly possible (and much needed here for the Bengals). The Rams D-Line ranks 20th in QB pressures (14) thus far, so if they’re not able to get more pressure on Burrow, it could be a long night for their secondary.
The Rams offensively will also find the going tough. Cincinnati’s secondary is highly disciplined and excels at limiting big plays. They’re just 16th in yards per pass attempt against at the moment but will represent a tough challenge for Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell.
Nacua has thrived against less aggressive secondaries, but the Bengals tend to employ a lot of complex coverage schemes. The Rams aren’t a team that tends to run much, but this is a good spot for Kyren Williams, who inherited the workhorse roll this week when former Rams RB Cam Akers was traded to Minnesota.
Still, with how good Matthew Stafford is playing right now, don’t expect the Rams to deviate too much from their former game plans in this spot, even if they have to attack the Bengals' strength. Stafford ranks 10th in EPA per play on the season and has had a brilliant rebound from the surgery he incurred in the middle of last season.
This game comes down to Burrow’s leg/body and how good it feels when he wakes up on Monday. It certainly looks like Burrow may try to give it a go, but the spread is still at Bengals -2.5, and the team just signed A.J. McCarron to the practice squad.
As much as I like the Rams story this year, taking the Bengals at under a FG in this game is likely worth the risk.
If Burrow sits, the line will probably move in favor of the Rams, but let’s not forget the Bengals are at home and played under backup Jake Browning all preseason. There won’t be a ton of familiarity, but there will be some, and the Bengals' defense is good enough to keep this game close enough for them to win by three points.
If Burrow plays, you’ve hit the jackpot and should capture multiple points of closing line value. At that point, you can choose to ride it out with the Bengals or look for a sweet middle opportunity. It’s not exactly a win/win, but the reward outweighs the risk.
Rams at Bengals - Player Props
Joe Mixon over 14.5 rush attempts (-120; BetMGM)
Nothing fancy here. If Burrow plays, they will look to protect him with more running plays. If Burrow sits, they will look to protect the team by not having Jake Browning throw too many passes.
Sep 17, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) reacts after a play against the Baltimore Ravens in the first half at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
I think there is a great chance Mixon ends up being the focal point of Monday’s offense for Cincy.
Matthew Stafford under 254.5 passing yards (-115; BetMGM)
Unders can be fun, too. The Bengals running the ball a little more should limit the opportunities for Stafford this week. He’s averaged 47.0 attempts per game this season, which is likely a little too rich, even for Sean McVay’s pass-heavy plasma. We have him projected at 236.5 yards this week on Fantasy Life.
Rams at Bengals - Same Game Parlay
Since we don’t have any receiving or reception props for the Bengals players yet, I went big with Ja’Marr Chase and grabbed him to score his first TD of the season. If he goes off this week, it could be the best odds we get him at all year.
As a comeback play, I took an over on a small Tyler Higbee prop and then used the Bengals money line to pair with the under on 43.5 for a tighter Bengals win.
With the game under and the Chase TD somewhat negatively correlated, we got better odds than expected, making this a nice risk/reward play for late Monday night.
We’ll be back on Thursday for another prime-time matchup breakdown, but until then, don’t forget to check out the free picks on our bet tracker and other great betting tools we have on the site.
