In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues
Final Four Frenzy …
Four teams remaining in the dance means just eight possible combinations to unlock this year’s Super Bowl matchup. So, of course, it piqued my greedy curiosity for pricing on the big game …
- Chiefs beat Eagles: (+360)
- Bills beat Eagles: (+390)
- Eagles beat Chiefs: (+400)
- Eagles beat Bills: (+450)
- Chiefs beat Commanders: (+950)
- Bills beat Commanders: (+1000)
- Commanders beat Chiefs: (+1200)
- Commanders beat Bills: (+1400)
Remember, we’ve got you covered year-round. Stay plugged in with us on the Betting Life newsletter through the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.
NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS BETTING ODDS
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- NFC Conference Championship: Commanders vs. Eagles
- The New York Prop Exchange: Run, Jayden, Run!
The Show Goes On …
Championship Sunday Guilloteenie Contests are LIVE.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Big takeaways from the Divisional Round, with a look ahead to the Conference Championships.
🔮 A projected trade lands a Heisman Trophy winner in the Dawg Pound. Thor Nystrom’s latest NFL Mock Draft is here.
🪓 Ready for more chopping? New Guilloteenies are here for the Conference Championships.
⛳️ Torrey Pines is calling for the Farmers Insurance Open, and Geoff Ulrich has the preview.
☘️ Great day to be Jaden Greathouse. Check out Thor Nystrom’s CFP Natty winning ticket.
NFC Conference Championship🏈💥—Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
No. 6 Commanders (12-5) at No. 2 Eagles (14-3)
Sun. Jan. 26, 3:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Eagles -5.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Total: O/U 47.5
The starting off point for this year’s NFC Conference Championship couldn’t be any clearer. Oh, sing us the praise of Jayden Daniels! Washington’s rookie phenom has taken us on an epic, Odyssey-esque-type voyage this season. With just two giants left unslain to etch his name in history books forever, can JD8 achieve what fellow first-year QBs Pat Haden, Dieter Brock, Shaun King, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez could not?
Well, if one of these things is not like the other, and one of these things just doesn’t belong—it’d have to be Daniels. Those more recent Jets, Steelers, and Ravens squads predicated their success heavily on the defensive end. Meanwhile, the Commanders’ playoff run rests solely on the shoulders (and legs) of the former LSU Tiger—283.5 passing yards/game on a +116 passer rating at more than 8.5 yards/attempt looks like more a Patrick Mahomes stat line from yesteryear. For reference, Daniels’ +0.43 postseason EPA/dropback is higher than anyone during the 2024 season, including MVP Lamar Jackson.
Credit where it’s due and I’m not sure we could oversell this one if we tried.
Kliff Kingsbury has done an excellent job understanding the assignment and steering directly into Washington’s strengths. Hold the ball as long as possible to mask the defense—no one in the NFC has run nearly as many plays or achieved as many first downs this postseason as the Commanders. Jayden’s operating their RPO-heavy style masterfully, drawing defenses in with the threat from his legs, all while keeping his eyes downfield for deep shot potential.
Things will get noticeably tougher against Philly on Sunday, the best defense Washington has faced in playoffs and perhaps all season. The NFC East rivals split their season series 1-1 to widely disparate outcomes. In their first tilt, Vic Fangio tailored the game plan perfectly. He totally throttled the blitz to avoid overcommitting, going instead exclusively with six defenders in the box and five DBs behind in Cover-3. With nothing available deep, Daniels posted a minuscule 3.6 air yards/attempt in their lowest-scoring game of the season.
When they faced off again in Week 16, the Eagles played more aggressively from a stylistic standpoint. The Birds deployed more press-man, under Cover-1 zone packages—this time sending a blitz on +25% of snaps. The result? Philly paid dearly for sending those extra men, as Daniels went 10-of-15 for 173 yards and 3 scores against the rush on his way to a massive day in a statement win.
On the flip side of things, honestly, I’m not sure what to make of the Eagles offense. What I mean is, just because they’ve passed for 240+ yards only once since Week 7 doesn’t mean they’re incapable of it. That’s what having Saquon Barkley and the league’s best offensive line will do for you, I guess.
2024’s rushing leader is the fairly obvious key to Philly’s success. And yes, he brought the same alpha energy that earned him the rushing title into the second season, averaging nearly 6.5 yards/carry and over 4.4 yards after contact/rush across two games. The Commanders are going to need a new plan to stop an Eagles’ ground game that decimated them twice to the tune of 296 total yards and 4 TDs. The answer, as always, lies in the muck and mire of the trenches.
There’s a good chance Philadelphia’s roster depth, particularly in the interior, helps them outlast Washington Sunday. That said, I’m also not completely counting the Commanders out—they’ve earned that much from us. Given the Eagles’ lack of explosivity, even if I think they deserve to be favored at home, I’m still reticent to lay 6 points to a team that’s shown the ability to stand toe-to-toe with the division winner. LEAN: WAS +5.5 (-110)
NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS BEST BETS
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Run, Jayden, Run!
THE BET: Jayden Daniels Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-105) FanDuel
We’re in the middle of a rare two-bet losing streak in desperate need of correction. Well, when the going gets tough, the tough get running … I hope. The Commanders managed a degree of success via the conventional run game last weekend versus the Lions (4.3 yards/rush, 43% success rate)—but that felt more like the exception than the rule.
Remember, just a week earlier against a true run-stopping unit in Tampa, the Commanders managed a pathetic 2.5 yards/rush on a 29% success rate. That dog won’t hunt versus the Eagles’ interior beef on Sunday.
Expect the Commanders to keep the ball in their best player’s hands with another heavy dose of RPO from Kliff Kingsbury. Philly’s defense landed top-three essentially across the board with good reason. It consistently collapses opposing offensive lines without sending extra men—which I think will work in our favor on Sunday. As the season progressed, we saw Jayden Daniels assume increasing responsibility as a dual threat from the backfield.
Check out the rookie’s rush attempts since Washington’s Week 14 bye—Daniels carried the ball just four times fewer than the Commanders’ lead RB Brian Robinson. Add in the gravity of the game itself and you can easily see Jayden sailing over this line for the fifth time in six games (the major dip below was a meaningless Week 18 game vs. DAL).
Make sure to check out our Player Projections to compare
Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS PLAYER PROPS
