Week 3 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Giants at 49ers.
Who’s ready for some more football?
After two games on Monday, the NFL is back in swing with the start of Week 3 on Thursday Night Football. This week, the Giants will head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers.
These two teams have had wildly different starts to the season. The 49ers are 2-0, and they’ve looked like an absolute juggernaut at times. They completely embarrassed the Steelers in Week 1, and they would’ve covered the spread in Week 2 if not for an unnecessary late field goal vs. the Rams.
Meanwhile, the Giants apparently didn’t realize that the season started in Week 1. They were outscored 60-0 through their first six quarters before ultimately storming back for a comeback win vs. the Cardinals. Still, the fact that the Giants struggled so much with a team that was expected to be the worst in football is a major cause for concern.
Let’s dive into all the betting angles for Thursday Night Football.
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
- Spread: 49ers -10.0 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 44.5
- Moneylines: Giants +400/49ers -550
It’s safe to say that the Giants couldn’t have started the season any worse. A 40-0 trouncing at the hands of the Cowboys is one thing, but falling in a 20-0 hole vs. the Cardinals? That’s inexcusable.
The Giants did manage to avoid disaster by coming back to win, but the Cardinals allowed the Commanders to do the same thing in Week 1. Ultimately, their ineptitude is probably more responsible than anything the Giants did.
Sep 17, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) passes against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
The Giants were always bound for some regression this season. They vastly outperformed most of their expected metrics. They were 24th in yardage differential in 2022, and they also had a negative point differential.
Brian Daboll received a lot of the credit for what he did, taking home the Coach of the Year award in his first season. Now, he’s going to have to prove that it wasn’t a fluke.
Unfortunately, things don’t figure to get any better for the Giants in Week 3. Not only are they facing one of the best teams in football, but they’re also going to be without their best offensive player. Saquon Barkley suffered an injury in Week 2, and while he avoided disaster, he’s been ruled out for Thursday night.
Running backs don’t matter nearly as much toward the spread as other positions, but Barkley isn’t your typical running back. He’s capable of producing on the ground and in the passing game, and he was responsible for a big chunk of the team’s yards last season.
Without Barkley, the Giants’ skill-position players are very uninspiring. Darren Waller was brought in to upgrade the pass-catchers, but he’s been pedestrian through the first two weeks. Outside of Waller—and maybe rookie speedster Jalin Hyatt—there’s really nothing to get excited about.
That could spell disaster vs. the 49ers. Their defense completely handcuffed the Steelers in Week 1, limiting them to 239 yards of total offense. They weren’t as dominant vs. the Rams, but the Giants don’t have Matthew Stafford playing quarterback.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers’ offense remains the picture of efficiency. Brock Purdy is still undefeated as a starting quarterback in games where he doesn’t get injured, and Christian McCaffrey is generating some MVP buzz. The team is absolutely loaded, so all Purdy has to do is get the ball in the hands of his playmakers.
So far, he’s been able to do that with aplomb. He ranks seventh at the position in EPA + CPOE composite, and as long as he can continue to make the simple plays, he’s the perfect guy to run this offense.
Unsurprisingly, the public loves the 49ers in this spot. They’ve received more than 80% of the spread bets in this spot (per the Action Network), even though this line has entered double figures. The 49ers were favored by just six on the look-ahead line, but that’s not enough to dissuade most bettors.
Sep 17, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) gets by Los Angeles Rams safety John Johnson III (43) for a touchdown in the first quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
However, there has been some sharp activity on the Giants. That doesn’t surprise me.
Daboll was absolutely outstanding at covering the spread as an underdog last season. The Giants were 11-3 ATS when getting points (including the playoffs), so they routinely outperformed expectations.
The Giants also enter Week 3 at 0-2 against the spread, and those teams tend to become undervalued. Teams that have failed to cover in the first two weeks are 77-58-0 against the spread in Week 3 dating back to 2005. When facing a team with a 2-0 record, they’re a sparkling 25-15.
It feels scary to fade a team like the 49ers, especially with how shaky the Giants have looked to start the year. That said, I think they’re clearly the right side in this matchup.
Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry. There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing using the tool for this matchup.
The biggest edge is on Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions. Jones threw just five picks last season, making him one of the best in the business in terms of INT%. However, he has not been the same player so far this season. He’s already tossed three picks through his first two games, and he has at least one pick in both contests.
That includes two interceptions vs. the Cowboys in Week 1 in a game that could feature a similar game script. If the Giants fall behind and are forced into obvious pass situations, the 49ers’ pass rush should be able to wreak havoc.
The Giants are going to be without their best lineman, Andrew Thomas, so Jones should be under duress. That’s a great recipe for an interception.
Our Prop Tool is also showing value on under 28.5 receiving yards for Parris Campbell. Campbell has seen plenty of playing time for the Giants; he just hasn’t been much of a factor in the passing attack. His target share sits at 16% through the first two weeks, while his air yards share sits at 10%. His average depth of target (aDOT) is just 3.92 yards, so most of his damage has to be done after the catch. Against a strong defense like the 49ers, that’s going to be more difficult than usual.
Same-Game Parlay
We’ve been super close on our same-game parlays in each of the first two weeks, but unfortunately, we’ve yet to get on the board. It’s a reminder that SGPs are a lot tougher to hit than they might seem, but I’m hoping to turn things around in Week 3.
As usual, I’m going to start with my desired side: The Giants +10.0. From there, we can build out our SGP with bets that we think are more likely to hit if the Giants cover.
So what does a Giants cover look like in this spot? For starters, I think it’s going to take a solid performance from Daniel Jones. He doesn’t have Barkley, so he’ll likely have to get something done with his legs. Jones is always a sneaky threat to find the end zone—he had seven rushing touchdowns in 2022—so an anytime touchdown is a smart pairing.
Additionally, I like over 25 receiving yards for McCaffrey. His usage as a runner last week was a bit fluky—he had 100% of the RB snaps while Elijah Mitchell didn’t play—but he remains the team’s clear top option as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. He’s had just three catches in each of the first two weeks, but the 49ers haven’t had to throw a ton. If this game is competitive, I think he should see more volume as a receiver.
Just those three legs already brings us to a solid +650 potential payout:
You could always add something else in if you want to make it extra spicy, but +650 is good enough for me.
Regardless of how you choose to play this game, good luck this week!
You can tail the SGP at BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
