NFL Coach of the Year Odds

One of the best parts about sports betting is that there’s always something else to dive into. Even though it might be the offseason, there are plenty of markets currently available for NFL betting.

I dove into the futures market with Defensive Player of the Year odds last week, while Geoff Ulrich looked at Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year.

In this installment, we’ll dive into everything you need to know about the NFL Coach of the Year award: who are the current favorites, what type of coaches typically win, and who are the best values on the board.

2023-24 NFL Coach of the Year odds

*Odds last updated 12/26/23 courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

Previous winners

Coach of the Year betting trends

The formula for the Coach of the Year winner is pretty easy. There’s no real way to judge coaching success outside of wins and losses, and coaches that win Coach of the Year tend to show massive improvement from the previous season.

Over the past 10 years, the winning coach of the year has taken over a team that won less than 7 games the previous season. They averaged an additional 5.2 wins in the following season, checking in at a whopping 12 wins.

That means that whoever wins this award in the coming season will likely coach for a team that didn’t make the playoffs in 2022-23. There are some exceptions—Mike Vrabel, John Harbaugh, and Bruce Arians all won the award after winning double-digit games the previous season—but this award typically rewards coaches whose teams “overperform.” 

There’s a reason why Bill Belichick has only won this award three times despite being considered the best coach in history. It’s also why established coaches like Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, and Kevin O’Connell are some of the biggest longshots heading into the regular season.

Last year was a perfect example. Nick Sirianni very easily could’ve won COTY after taking the Eagles from 9-8 to 14-3 and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. However, everyone expected the Eagles to be good. 

Meanwhile, Brian Daboll’s New York Giants were expected to be cellar-dwellers, so he got more credit for getting the team to nine wins and a surprise playoff berth.

Coaches like Daboll are who we should be trying to identify in the betting market: teams that were subpar last year but have a chance to qualify for the postseason in 2023-24.

Additionally, this is not an award where you need to target the chalk. Six of the past eight winners have started the year at +2000 or greater, and only Matt Nagy started the year at better than +1400. That makes this award a great spot to go hunting for some longshot value.

The Favorite

*Analysis last updated 12/6/23

Dan Campbell (+175)

Dan Campbell has been the front-runner for this award for some time now but the gap in his lead is closing. The Lions are still 9-3 and have a solid lead in the NFC North (Green Bay and Minnesota are second at 6-6) but they haven’t looked very dominant of late. Their defense has regressed and they’ve allowed 9 passing TDs over their last four games. They were also fully exposed by a divisional rival in Green Bay on Thanksgiving. 

Even with some struggles, Detroit has had one of the more steady offenses in the league all season, ranking out 6th in offensive DVOA and 6th in points per game. The other factor to consider when looking at Campbell and his chances of winning this award is how vastly the Lions have improved since he showed up. Detroit went 3-13-1 in 2021, improved to 9-8 in 2022, and now looks set to potentially top out at 11-13 wins. 

Lions coach Dan Campbell on the sidelines during the Lions' 34-23 win over the Vikings on Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, at Ford Field. Lionsminn 121122 Kd 3907

If that happens (the Lions get to 11+ wins) Campbell will be a hard person to root against. It’s rare in the NFL that we see a coach last through the kind of losing that Campbell endured in 2021, and come out the other side with a team that is not only a division winner, but is also challenging for the top seed in the conference. 

While rookie head coaches (who orchestrated big turnarounds in their first year) have dominated this award of late it’s worth noting that 2021 saw a more established head coach in Mike Vrabel win the award (Vrabel took the once middling to above-average Titans to the number one seed in the AFC that season). 

Campbell’s turnaround has been so dramatic that he may not need the Lions to win the number one seed to get this award but he will need the Lions to finish strong. The rookie head coaches just behind him in the odds will get even more sentiment should the Lions falter down the stretch.

Best Bet

*Last updated 12/6/23

Shane Steichen (+600)

Ultimately, if I am betting against Campbell I want two things. A. a rookie head coach whose team has outperformed expectations this year and B. some decent odds. 

Steichen checks off both of those boxes. 

The Colts have not only moved themselves into second place in the AFC South but they have done by riding a backup quarterback since Week 4. In many ways, that should make Steichen a little easier to vote for, than divisional rival Demeco Ryans, should this award come down to a Campbell vs. Steichen vote at the end.  

Ryans is also in the midst of a similar turnaround season with the Texans but he’s currently sitting at +250 odds (so far worse odds) and also has the CJ Stroud factor working against him. Stroud is the overwhelming favorite to win offensive rookie of the year and voters may view Stroud’s OROY award as enough recognition to heap on the Texans for one season. 

The Colts and Texans both have relatively easy schedules left but the two games against the Titans for Houston seem to be inflating Steichen’s odds a touch. If the Colts end up in the playoffs (over Houston) Steichen should get more recognition than his counterpart would if the roles were reversed – simply because he didn’t have CJ Stroud running his offense. 

Both of these AFC South coaches are in tough against Campbell and, at the end of the day, I’d rather take the longer odds on the Colts coach, who would have a slightly more valid claim in the end, given the adversity his team has had to deal with at QB this year.

You can bet on Steichen on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Sign up below and start betting today!

Sleeper Pick

*Last updated 12/6/23

Matt Lafleur (+2000)

LaFleur was a name that stuck with me for this award in the preseason. Aaron Rodgers leaving provided a solid narrative for voters to potentially hand the Green Bay coach this award IF he could produce another division title (or playoff berth). 

While those chances looked bleak a month or so ago the Packers have woken up lately and it’s been LaFleur’s more aggressive coaching that has helped transform this team.

The NFC South is going to be wide open once again in 2023-24, and I think the Falcons are very live to take it. They spent very heavily in free agency, and while that might not be the greatest strategy for sustained success, it does typically lead to big improvement the following year.

Green Bay (6-6) still sits well behind first-place Detroit, but they’ve now won four out of their last five games and have beat teams with records above .600 in back-to-back weeks. 

The Packers currently sit around +1200 to +1600 to win the NFC North. If you are interested in betting on a Lions collapse (and Green Bay to keep winning) then betting LaFleur in this market is likely the better way to leverage that idea. If the Packers were to pull off the comeback it’s a near certainty that LaFleur would leapfrog Campbell in the odds for this award as well.

General strategy

I absolutely love this award for betting purposes. Using the historical data, I think it’s pretty easy to identify the guys with the best chance of winning. Those coaches aren’t necessarily the favorites in the betting market, so you can get a ton of exposure spread across multiple candidates.

Personally, I will have investments in Saleh, Eberflus, Smith, and Dennis Allen at a minimum. Guys like Mike Tomlin and Mike McDaniel will also likely be in my portfolio. Each coach is priced at a point where you can comfortably split a unit or two across all six and still see a nice profit if one ultimately wins.

After that, you can use the early-season results to bolster your portfolio. Sirianni emerged as a clear favorite after the Eagles got out to a 13-1 record, but the injury to Hurts created some value with Daboll. Sure enough, the Eagles finished the year by losing two of their final three games, which allowed Daboll to steal it. He got as low as +2500 or so, creating plenty of value for those who took advantage.

That’s just another example of how you can use NFL news to your benefit. An injury to a starting quarterback might not make you immediately think of the Coach of the Year market, but everything has ripples. If you’re willing to think creatively, there will be plenty of opportunities in the futures market to leverage news throughout the year.