Week 1 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Lions @ Chiefs.
It’s finally here.
After OTAs, training camp, and the preseason, the start of the NFL regular season is upon us.
We’re set for a great opening contest too, with the Lions traveling to Kansas City to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
Both teams enter the year with big expectations. The Chiefs are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl for the third time in the past five years, while the Lions are the favorites in the NFC North.
The Lions haven’t made the postseason in six straight years, and they haven’t won the division since 1993.
Who has the edge in this showdown? Let’s break down all the betting angles for this matchup.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Total: 52.5
- Moneylines: Lions +180/Chiefs -225
The big news in this contest revolves around the health of Travis Kelce.
The unquestioned top tight end in football suffered a knee injury at Tuesday’s practice, and while there is no structural damage, his status for Thursday night is up in the air.
Kelce is coming off another monster campaign in 2022, racking up 110 catches for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. Those aren’t just the best numbers among tight ends—they also compare favorably with any pass-catcher in the NFL.
Kelce was poised for a big season-debut against the Lions.
As Geoff Ulrich details in our Game Hub, the Lions were eviscerated by tight ends last season. They allowed the second-most touchdowns to the position, and Kelce makes a living by destroying teams near the end zone.
With Kelce’s status uncertain, the Chiefs’ offense looks a lot more mortal. He is their clear alpha, with the Chiefs lacking another proven pass-catcher behind him.
Jan 21, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs the ball against Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Foyesade Oluokun (23) and safety Rayshawn Jenkins (2) during the second half in the AFC divisional round game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
The receiving corps is unproven, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling leading a group of young players including Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Rashee Rice. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football, but even he might struggle to produce with those options.
Unfortunately, Kelce’s status isn’t the only issue the Chiefs are facing at the moment. Chris Jones continues to hold out in search of a new contract, leaving the Chiefs without their top defender.
Jones was the top interior defensive lineman in all of football last season per Pro Football Focus, racking up 15.5 sacks and 17 TFLs. His absence would arguably be even larger than Kelce’s since the Chiefs’ defense doesn’t have Mahomes to make up for it.
All of the uncertainty in KC makes the Lions an appealing target. The line has come down significantly since opening at 7.0, but Detroit has been a fantastic ATS squad under head coach Dan Campbell.
They’re 27-19 against the spread since Campbell took over, including 23-15 as an underdog.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have had their struggles when it comes to covering the spread. Despite their elite record since Mahomes took over at QB, they’re just 21-28 ATS with Mahomes under center during the past three regular seasons. As a favorite of at least four points, that figure drops to 14-21.
I already locked this pick in earlier this offseason, but at this point, I would suggest waiting for word on Kelce before locking in Detroit.
If he suits up, this number will likely move back in the Chiefs’ favor.
Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets
We don’t have to rely solely on the game spread to try to make some money on this contest. There are also a host of prop bets to consider that our team has loaded into the Bet Tracker.
One of my personal favorites is the under on Isiah Pacheco’s rushing prop, which is currently available at 51.5 yards.
Pacheco has been nursing a knee injury during the offseason, and he played in just one preseason contest. He only had one attempt in that contest, so he’s not exactly up to game speed.
Not playing in the preseason wouldn’t typically be a huge deal for a running back, but the Chiefs have two other options in Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire who should both factor into the equation.
The Chiefs are already one of the most pass-heavy teams in football—they were first in Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2022—so Pacheco could be looking at single-digit carries unless the team establishes a big lead.
Additionally, McKinnon was their clear pass-catching running back last season, and that role could be particularly useful to the Chiefs if Kelce is unable to suit up.
Ultimately, we have Pacheco projected for closer to 48 rushing yards, and I think that number is also a bit too high. There’s enough here for a play.
Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery practices with running back Jahmyr Gibbs (not in the photo) during training camp at Detroit Lions Headquarters and Training Facility in Allen Park on Monday, July 24, 2023.
On the other side, Joe Metz is on the over for Lions RB David Montgomery’s rushing yards. His number is also listed at 51.5, but his outlook is a lot rosier.
Montgomery only has one running back to compete with in Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs was a first-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, and all reports suggest he’s going to be a big part of the Lions’ offense. However, he probably won’t be used as a traditional running back.
He’s going to catch a ton of passes out of the backfield and could even be used out wide. That leaves Montgomery to handle most of the early-down responsibilities.
Montgomery is an upgrade over Jamaal Williams, who filled that role for the Lions last year. He was eighth in the league in broken tackles, and he averaged more yards after contact than Williams as well.
The Lions’ offensive line ranks second in our Unit Rankings, so don’t be surprised if he breaks out in his first year in Detroit.
Eliot Crist is also targeting both of the Lions’ young offensive players—Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta—to find the paint, and their best prices are currently listed at +165 and +290 across the industry.
If Kelce sits, there could also be some value in targeting some of the Chiefs’ receivers to find the end zone. Moore (+200), Valdes-Scantling (+250), and Richie James (+450) are particularly intriguing in my eyes if Kelce ultimately sits.
Lions at Chiefs Same-Game Parlay
Building a proper same-game parlay isn’t quite as easy as it seems. If you’re doing it correctly, you want your bets to have positive correlation, meaning that if one leg hits, it increases the likelihood that the others do as well.
Since I like the Lions to cover this game, it seems likely that they’ll score some points.
Even if Kelce sits, it’s hard to imagine Mahomes and company putting up less than three touchdowns against a defense that ranked 28th in points per game and 32nd in yards.
With that in mind, I’ll piggyback off Eliot and grab Gibbs as an anytime touchdown scorer at +165.
Add that to our other two running back props, and it looks something like this:
If you’re looking to go a little bigger, you could certainly add something like a game over and another anytime touchdown or two, but I personally like to keep my SGPs at four or five legs. Anything more than that and it’s less like handicapping and more like pure gambling.
However you choose to play this game, we can all agree that it’s great to have regular-season NFL football back in our lives.
Here’s to a great 18 weeks!
You can tail the SGP from above on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting today!
