What a good first week of playoff football. The contests on the field left a little to be desired, but we did very well from a betting perspective. Matt LaMarca went 4-2 on sides in the Wild Card best bets article, while Geoff Ulrich went 4-3 on props. That’s a nice way to get the ball rolling.

Now we enter what is quite possibly the best football weekend of the year. The top team in each conference will join the three winners from last week, setting up four matchups between eight of the best teams in the league. Add in the college football national championship on Monday, and we are approaching one of the best stretches of football of the entire season.

Let’s run it back in the divisional round, with game breakdowns and bets. We only have seven NFL games left this season, so let’s take advantage while we can.

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Texans at Chiefs (-8.5)—42.0 total

The Texans upsetting the Chargers was a surprise to many, but they advance to face the Chiefs in Kansas City in the divisional round. The Chiefs have been a frustrating team all season. Their underlying metrics leave a lot to be desired, yet they were 15-1 with Patrick Mahomes in the lineup this season. They kept a ton of games close, only to have the best player on planet Earth pull things out in the end.

It’s an eerily similar formula to what we saw from the Chiefs last season. They were uninspiring for much of the regular season only to flip the switch in the playoffs. They got past the Dolphins, Bills, Ravens, and 49ers en route to their third title in five years, with each of their final three contests coming away from Arrowhead Stadium. They’ll at least have the benefit of home-field advantage this year as they look for their third straight championship.

The Chiefs have historically been a team that struggles to cover big spreads during the regular season. They were just 3-7-1 ATS when favored by more than a field goal this year, and they’re 24-37-2 ATS in that split since the start of 2020-21.

However, Mahomes hasn’t really had the same issues during the playoffs. He’s 13-5 ATS for his career in the postseason, including 9-5 as a favorite.

The Chiefs will also have the rest advantage in this contest, which is lethal with Andy Reid as your coach. He’s historically been one of the best in the business with additional time to prepare, going 20-12 ATS with 13 or 14 days between contests.

Maybe this is the year where the Chiefs are unable to turn things on in the playoffs, but I’m going to need to see it to believe it. There’s still a -8.0 (-110) available at Caesars, so I’m locking that in while I can.

Bet: Chiefs -8.0 (-110; Caesars)

Prop: Dalton Schultz Over 32.5 receiving yards (-110; BetMGM)

  • Projection: 34.0

Schultz had a bit of a down game vs. the Chargers, catching just two passes for 23 yards. The bigger concern wasn’t the lack of yards, but that rookie Cade Stover was more involved and matched Schultz with four targets. I wouldn’t be that concerned about Stover stealing more thunder from Schultz in this game. The rookie only had a 33% route rate against the Chargers, which was down from his previous start, and he was only targeted around the line of scrimmage on situational plays as an extension of the run game. 

Schultz, on the other hand, had an 11.0-yard aDOT and just missed on converting a couple of big plays downfield, which likely would have catapulted him over his yardage totals from last week. 

While it’s disappointing if you bet the Schultz over last week, I’d anticipate the connection with Schultz and Stroud will be better against Kansas City. During the regular season, the Chiefs allowed the most receiving yards to opposing TEs and saw 13 different TEs go for 33+ yards against them. The Chiefs blitz often, leaving the middle of the field open, and Schultz took advantage against them in Week 13 for 45 yards, five catches, and a TD. 

With a more inviting matchup, I expect C.J. Stroud to lean more on Schultz against one of the best pass rushes in the league and lift him to bigger numbers than we saw vs. the Chargers. 

Commanders at Lions (-9.5)—55.5 total

It was a great week for some of my favorite postseason trends in Round 1. The first-time QBs went just 1-2 against the spread, with Jayden Daniels providing the lone cover. Not only that, he picked up an outright win over the Buccaneers, setting up a date with the Lions in the divisional round.

The stadium over/under trend also paid out handsomely. All four outdoor playoff contests went under, while the indoor matchup between the Texans and Chargers went over. The only game that didn’t follow suit was Vikings-Rams, and that game was essentially a neutral-site contest.

With the Lions back on the board in the divisional round, we’ll pick up another indoor location at Ford Field. The total on this game sits at a massive 55.5 points, but I’m still going to grab the over in this spot. Indoor postseason overs are now 36-18 since 2003, and I like the Lions and Commanders to add to that total on Saturday night.

The Lions have been one of the best offensive teams in football all season. They’re No. 1 in the league in points per game, No. 2 in yards, and No. 3 in EPA per play. They should have no issues carving through a Commanders’ defense that has been exploitable for most of the year.

On the other side, the Commanders should be able to hold serve. Jayden Daniels was extremely impressive in his postseason debut, and when he’s been at full strength this season, the Commanders’ offense has been basically unstoppable. The Lions’ defense has also been decimated by injuries down the stretch, and they surrendered at least 31 points in three of their final five games. Their Week 18 performance against the Vikings also looks a lot less impressive in retrospect following Minnesota's performance against the Rams on Monday night.

Ultimately, Washington was 11-6 to the over during the regular season, while Detroit was 9-8. Even though the Commanders failed to go over in their first playoff outing, I’m expecting plenty of points in this matchup.

Bet: Over 55.5 (-105; BetMGM)

Prop: Olamide Zaccheaus Over 31.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)

  • Projection: 39.0
  • 40+ rec yards (+145)
  • 50+ rec yards (+235)
  • 60+ rec yards (+375; bet365)

This looks like a fantastic time to get back on the Zaccheaus train. The Commanders receiver was upstaged in the Wild Card Round by Dyami Brown, who was allowed to go buck wild by the Bucs’ secondary, catching all five of his targets for 89 yards in the win. 

Zaccheaus also had an efficient day, catching all three of his targets but didn’t have the breakout catches that Brown did, gaining only 19 yards. As you can probably guess, Brown’s props have now risen substantially while Zaccheaus’ prop lines are about eight to 10 yards shorter than they were last week. That makes for a great buying opportunity. 

Despite being outgained by Brown, Zacchaeus still posted a better route rate (63% vs. 58% and played more snaps than Brown (50 vs. 45) against Tampa. He also has the better history of delivering in this offense, having gone for 35+ yards in four straight games between weeks 15-18. 

Add in the fact that he’ll be playing in a dome against a Lions defense that ranked just 23rd in yards per attempt — and allowed the most yards to opposing WRs this season — and you have a great environment for Zaccheaus to post another big game. 

I’ll also be looking to take some shots with Zaccheaus alternate lines and TD props, which I outlined above. I’d also be fine playing his regular line up to 34.5 (-110) if it rises during the week, which it probably will. 

Rams at Eagles (-6.0)—43.5 total

The Eagles picked up a comfortable win over the Packers in their first playoff contest, but it’s hard to say it was impressive. They were basically gifted a seven-point lead after Keisean Nixon fumbled the opening kickoff, and Green Bay was never able to get back in the game. Jordan Love threw three interceptions, so the Eagles really just had to avoid making any mistakes to pick up a win.

I don’t expect that to be the case this week. The Rams have been on a roll since getting Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. They won eight of their final 11 games to wrap up the regular season, and one of those losses was a meaningless Week 18 game where they rested their starters.

That said, the Eagles were one of the two teams to pick up a real win over the Rams during that stretch. They blasted the Rams 37-20, rolling up nearly 500 yards of total offense. It was an extremely impressive performance for Philly; the question is, can they do it again?

Ultimately, I’m leaning toward no. There’s no doubt the Eagles are a good team, and their defense is absolutely elite. However, there are some questions about their offense. Jalen Hurts has yet to throw for more than 200 yards in a playoff win. If their offense needs to score some points in this contest, I’m not sure if they have the firepower to do so.

Meanwhile, the Rams have a Super Bowl-winning duo at QB and head coach in Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay. That duo has a 10-6-2 ATS mark when getting at least a field goal, including a perfect 2-0 mark in the postseason. I like them to potentially pull off the upset, and it should be a competitive game at a minimum. You can grab +6.5 with the Rams on FanDuel, and I think that’s about as good of a number as we’ll see.

Bet: Rams +6.5 (-110; FanDuel)

Prop: A.J. Brown Over 4.5 receptions (-135; bet365)

  • Projection: 5.4 

I get that the Eagles haven’t been passing much lately (21 attempts against the Packers), but this is just an insanely low line for a true alpha WR1 like A.J. Brown. The Eagles wideout wasn’t needed much in the divisional round but had a 34% target share this season and has gone over 4.5 receptions in 10 of 18 games this season, including Week 12 vss the Rams when he caught six of seven passes. 

The Rams' biggest weakness on defense might be their undersized corners, who allowed Justin Jefferson to catch five passes last week for 58 yards, a line that likely would have been more if he wasn’t working with a sack-prone QB (and a poor offensive line). I expect the combo of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' offensive line to do a better job vs. the Rams’ front, allowing Brown to get off more in this game. 

Bottom line, we have Brown projected for 7.7 targets and 5.4 receptions this week on Fantasy Life, so even at -135 (57% IP) I think this is a solid bet and would play up to -150 if need be. 

Ravens (-1.5) at Bills—51.5 total

The final game of the week is the one that has people’s mouths watering. Josh Allen and the Bills will square off with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in one of the most anticipated divisional-round games in recent memory. Allen and Jackson have been the two best players in football this season, and one of them will take home the MVP.

However, both players also have some playoff demons that need to be exercised. Allen is just 4-7 ATS for his career in the playoffs, while Jackson checks in at 3-4. Both managed to win and cover in the Wild Card round, but they were massive favorites against the Broncos and Steelers, respectively. The level of competition will be ratcheted up significantly this week, with the winner likely advancing to face Mahomes in the AFC Championship.

The Bills initially opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the line has quickly shifted toward the Ravens. They’re now listed at -1.5, meaning that Allen and the Bills will likely be small home underdogs. That’s an appealing proposition, with Allen posting a 19-11-2 ATS mark as a dog during the regular season.

That said, calling Allen an underdog in this spot is a little disingenuous. While it’s technically true, the Bills are still likely going to need to win outright to cover the spread. Allen is also 0-3 ATS as a dog during the postseason, failing to cover twice against Mahomes and once against Deshaun Watson.

The Ravens have also had the edge against the Bills of late. They absolutely dominated the Bills when these squads met during the regular season, cruising to a 35-10 win.

Ultimately, that’s enough to push me toward Baltimore. They looked like the best team in football toward the end of the regular season. Their offense remained arguably the best in the league, while their defense looked vastly improved down the stretch. I think their defense comes up with the one or two big plays that will be needed to get across the finish line. I’m going to grab them on the moneyline at -115, which is available across most of the industry.

Bet: Ravens ML (-115; Caesars)

Prop: Amari Cooper over 20.5 receiving yards (-114; FanDuel)

  • 40+ yards (+265; bet365)
  • 50+ yards (+425; bet365)
  • 60+ yards (+700; bet365)
  • 50+ yards and a TD (+1000; bet365)

Even though it’s not going to be ideal passing weather, I still think this line might be too low — by at least a couple of yards. The fear of poor weather and the fact Cooper is playing more of a supporting role than people thought is more than baked into this prop — which is likely a career low for receiving yards for Cooper in any game where he’s started and been completely healthy. 

While he’s not playing every snap, Cooper has still maintained a solid role in the Buffalo offense, posting double target shares in each of his last two games, including Week 17 vs. the Jets when he caught all three of his targets for 56 yards (in a game also played in cold weather). 

The Ravens' secondary improved during the season but is still susceptible to big plays. They allowed another bigger body downfield receiver in George Pickens to go for five catches and 87 yards (and a TD) last week and also gave up big plays downfield to Van Jefferson and Mike Williams, whose only catch went for 37 yards.

We have Cooper projected for 34 yards at Fantasy Life, and while I’d feel good playing it up to 22.5, I also think there is value in some of his alternate lines. If the weather clears up even a little, there should be some opportunities for Cooper to make an impact in a game with both teams projected for upwards of 25 points. 

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