The NFL regular season has finally arrived. Yada yada yada, here’s what you should expect from this article each week. (I'm doing a Seinfeld rewatch, if you couldn't tell.)

  1. Some brief-ish notes on my favorite bets.
  2. Even briefer notes on other games that have my attention.
  3. The five teams I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
  4. The 2-5 teams I'm most considering for survivor contests (such as the Circa Survivor).

That’s it. Easy for me to write, someone else to edit, and you to read.

Let's get to my favorite bets for the big NFL markets.

My projections for NFL sides, totals, and moneylines for every game will be available later this week (and every week) with a FantasyLife+ subscription, which also includes access to my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections. If you're looking for something free, check out our Betting Life Newsletter.

Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Notes on Week 1 Totals

Last year, unders dominated to start the year, going 56-36-1 (16.1% ROI, per Action Network).

In Week 1 specifically, they were 12-4 (43.6% ROI).

They also did well in Week 1 the two years before that: 20-12 (18.8% ROI).

In fact, for the past few years—ever since the NFL went to a 17-game season and reorganized its preseason schedule as a result—unders have been profitable almost all the way to Thanksgiving.

  • Weeks 1-11 (2021-23): 287-204-2 | 11.8% ROI
  • Weeks 12-18 (2021-23): 157-163-2 | -6.2% ROI

Bottom line: For the past few seasons, the under has been the sharp side to open the year, and it hasn't been just a one-week thing. It has taken the market months to adjust appropriately downward.

In ordinary circumstances, I would have strong leans to the under in a number of games.

But here's the thing: The game has changed. This offseason, the NFL implemented new kickoff rules, which most bettors believe are likely to increase scoring in two ways.

  1. Teams could score more return TDs.
  2. Team could start drives with better field position, resulting in more offensive points.

As a result, as of writing (Wednesday afternoon) I'm yet to bet any Week 1 totals, as I want a little more time to research, think about how much of an impact the kickoff rule changes might have on scoring, and get the opinion of other bettors on how best to approach totals in this time of uncertainty.

And I tend to prefer betting spreads and MLs anyway.

So no totals this week in my best bets article, and that might be the case for at least a few more weeks as we start to understand the extent of the impact the new kickoff rules have on scoring.

NFL Week 1 Best Bets

Here are my favorite ATS bets currently available. For all my Week 1 bets, check out our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

  • Bears -4 vs. Titans (-108, DraftKings)
  • Dolphins -3.5 vs. Jaguars (+102, DraftKings)
  • Bengals -7.5 vs. Patriots (-105, Circa)
  • Cowboys +2.5 at Browns (+100, ESPN Bet)

Odds and projections as of Wed. 9/4 at noon ET. For updated lines, see our Fantasy Life odds page.

Bears -4 vs. Titans (-108, DraftKings)

The Bears have the edge at QB. Even though Caleb Williams is making his NFL debut, it's highly likely that—based on where they are currently in their respective career archs—Williams is better than Titans QB Will Levis.

Williams was the No. 1 dual-threat QB in his 2021 recruitment class, and then he won the Heisman Trophy at USC in 2022 before becoming the No. 1 pick in this year's draft. Williams was an elite prospect, and he did otherworldly things this preseason.

The Bears have the edge at QB … and they have the pass-catching edge too.

The Titans have added talent on defense, but it could take a while for their new players to coalesce into a unit, especially with DC Dennard Wilson entering his first season as a coordinator and playcaller.

Based on what they did last year, the Bears have the defensive edge (per RBs Don't Matter).

  • 2023 Bears Defense: No. 16 EPA | No. 10 SR
  • 2023 Titans Defense: No. 28 EPA | No. 25 SR

Say what you want about Bears HC Matt Eberflus. He at least has some experience doing the job. Compare that to Titans HC Brian Callahan, who is not only a rookie coach but also a first-time offensive playcaller.

And the Bears are in Chicago.

So they have the upper hand at QB, pass catcher, defense, and maybe coach … and they have home-field advantage—and they can push if the game lands on a four-point margin.

This is too much.

  • Bet in Tracker: -4 (-108)
  • Projection: -6
  • Cutoff: -4.5

Dolphins -3.5 vs. Jaguars (+102, DraftKings)

I logged this bet in the tracker at -3 and prefer it much more at that number to the current line of -3.5, but I still like it enough presently.

With QB Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins have been killers at home, especially when hosting at an elevated temperature of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit.

  • Tagovailoa at Home: 18-8 ATS | 32.3% ROI
  • Tagovailoa at Home in 80-Plus Degrees: 14-4 ATS | 48.9% ROI

Around kickoff, the forecast calls for temperatures potentially in the 90s at Hard Rock Stadium, and with the humidity it might feel as if it's 100 … with the sun shining directly on the visiting sideline.

Over the past half-decade, the Dolphins have had the league's top home-field advantage (+4.58, per NFElo). The challenge of playing in Miami is real, even for another Florida team.

HC Mke McDaniel is 2-0 ATS (90.9% ROI) in Week 1 and 6-2 ATS (43.5% ROI) in Weeks 1-4.

The Dolphins tend to start fast, and I expect that trend to continue in 2024.

  • Bet in Tracker: -3 (-110)
  • Projection: -5.75
  • Cutoff: -3.5

Bengals -7.5 vs. Patriots (-105, Circa)

I'm not sure how much really needs to be said about this game. At QB, one of these teams has Joe Burrow, and the other has Jacoby Brissett.

Throughout his career, Burrow has been regularly undervalued in the betting markets.

As for Brissett, he would be worth little to the spread if he didn't have a rookie backup. That the team wants to bring Drake Maye along slowly is the only reason Brissett is even starting.

In my updated season win totals, I have the Patriots projected for a league-worst 4.9 wins this year, whereas the Bengals are No. 6 with 10.6.

The delta between these two teams is massive, and I don't think the market fully appreciates the extent to which the Patriots are not playing for this season, evidenced by the fact that a few weeks ago they traded away EDGE Matt Judon, who was perhaps the team's best defender.

What did they get in return? A player?

No. A draft pick.

The Patriots are preparing for Week 1, but they're focused on the distant future.

  • Bet in Tracker: -8.5 (-110)
  • Projection: -10.5
  • Cutoff: -10

Cowboys +2.5 at Browns (+100, ESPN Bet)

From last year's team, the Cowboys are now without LT Tyron Smith (Jets), C Tyler Biadasz (Commanders), WR Michael Gallup (retired), and RB Tony Pollard (Titans).

That's not nothing, but the first three players have been replaced by top-100 draft selections … and then RB doesn't matter. The offseason downgrade to the offense has not been large.

On the defensive line, the Cowboys have lost depth, but they still have EDGEs Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence to rush the passer. At CB, the return of Trevon Diggs should mitigate the departure of Stephon Gilmore and injury of DaRon Bland.

Even with their subpar offseason, the Cowboys are still a contender (albeit a fragile one).

The Browns are a good team, but last year their defense wasn't all that much better than that of the Cowboys (per FTN).

  • 2023 Browns Defense: -20.7% DVOA (No. 2)
  • 2023 Cowboys Defense: -8.7% DVOA (No. 5)

The strength of the Browns is their defense … and defenses can be volatile year to year.

The strength of the Cowboys is their offense, which has been consistent for years with QB Dak Prescott, who has been markedly better than Browns QB Deshaun Watson ever since he joined the team.

Barring some sort of unlikely bounceback from Watson, the difference between him and Prescott at this stage of their careers far outweighs the contrasts between the two defenses.

Translation: The Cowboys should be favored in this game, even on the road.

And that's why I bet them on the ML.

Self-loathing Cowboys fan that I am, I'm ready to get hurt. Again.

  • Bet in Tracker: +122 ML
  • Projection: -1
  • Cutoff: +1.5, +110 ML

Week 1 Games That Have My Attention

Ravens +3 at Chiefs: As I noted in my bold betting predictions piece, QB Lamar Jackson is an elite underdog, going 12-2 ATS (65.8%) and 9-5 ML (62.1% ROI) for his career.

Packers +2.5 (+120 ML) vs. Eagles (Brazil): HC Matt LaFleur as a dog is 22-10 ATS (31.6% ROI) and 18-14 ML (48.1% ML). 

Steelers +3.5 at Falcons: This is the ideal spot to back HC Mike Tomlin, who is 59-35-4 ATS (21.8% ROI) and 48-43 ML (34.3% ROI) as an underdog.  

Colts +3 vs. Texans: With this projected at +2, I'm showing value on the Colts … but I just can't pull the trigger.

Chargers +3 vs. Raiders: The road to a Super Bowl victory at +4500 starts here.

Lions -3.5 vs. Rams: HC Dan Campbell is 37-17 ATS (30.7% ROI) for his career. If this line hits -3, I'm probably betting it.

Week 1 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as Circa, SuperBook, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

Last season I placed No. 8 out of 13,503 with a 53-27 record and two picks out of first place in the micro $5 DraftKings contest, which I will probably enter again this year.

If I had to pick my five teams right now, these might be the ones (based on the contest lines, the lines at sharp sportsbooks, my spread projections, and my sense for which teams will be popular).

  • Falcons -2.5 vs. Steelers: -3.5 at Circa
  • Texans -1.5 at Colts: Consensus -3
  • Raiders +3.5 at Chargers: Consensus -3
  • Vikings -0.5 at Giants: Consensus -1.5
  • Chiefs -2.5 vs. Ravens: Consensus -3

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 1

Right now, here are the five teams I'm thinking about for the Circa Survivor contest for Week 1.

  • Bengals (-7.5): I expect they'll be chalky, but I probably won't use them now because they're projected to be big favorites later in the season against the Commanders (Week 3), Raiders (Week 9), and Broncos (Week 17).
     
  • Bills (-6.5): Like the Bengals, the Bills likely have too good of a future schedule to use now, given that they should be laying major points against the Titans (Week 7) and Patriots (Week 16).
  • Seahawks (-6): They will probably never be favored by this many points again this year.
     
  • Bears (-4): As noted above in the best bets section, I like the Bears this week, and they don't have many more advantageous weeks after this one because of the strength of their division.
     
  • Chargers (-3): I don't see HC Jim Harbaugh losing at home in his franchise debut, and the Chargers don't have many usable games after this one.

Abbreviations

  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.