Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals goes off on Saturday night. Florida is up 3-0 although if you’ve watched the games it has been far from complete domination. The Oilers outplayed the Panthers in most respects in Game 1 had the lead early on in Game 2, and then outshot the Panthers once again in a one-goal loss in Game 3. 

The Panthers, however, have been extremely opportunistic, punishing the Oilers for every mistake while also playing solid defense. Their goaltending edge has also been huge with Sergei Bobrovsky posting a .953 SV% through three games. 

So do we call game and ride the Panthers' momentum, or can Connor McDavid and the Oilers stars finally get off the snide?

Let’s dive in below. 

Best Bets for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 4

Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (-120; bet365)

Call me stubborn, call me stupid, call me whatever, but I do think the Oilers win this game.

If we look at the three games played thus far the underlying stats say that Edmonton likely could have come out in front of two of them. The Oilers have a 55.6 xGF% at even strength and are also 0-10 on the power play. They were due for a little short-term regression on special teams, but it’s hit them all at once and a one-game bump at this point almost seems more likely than another game where the power play posts a donut.

The Oilers have also been unfortunate to run into a force named Sergei Bobrovsky and their frustration of being unable to beat him has led to mistakes – mistakes the Panthers have done well at taking advantage of. The potential of Bobrovsky just stonewalling McDavid et al. for 60 more minutes (and the Panthers celebrating a Stanley Cup in Edmonton) certainly exists.

Still, the sheer odds of Bobrovsky keeping those two off the scoresheet and the win column for four straight games is a daunting enough task in its own right that fading the Florida sweep has enough appeal for me to take Edmonton.

If the Panthers win, we’re out one bet, but if Edmonton wins we get to lock in profit and can also look to back Florida at home in Game 5, a game they’ll surely be up for.  I like that route and will stick with Edmonton for one last ride. 

Vladimir Tarasenko Over 1.5 SOG (-145; bet365)

  • Anytime Goal Scorer (+420; FanDuel)

Despite Tarasenko only playing around 12 minutes a game it’s hard to keep ignoring his underlying stats. He’s averaged 5.25 shot attempts per game in this series and has now gone over this 1.5 SOG total in seven straight games. Despite all that, the odds of him going over 1.5 SOG remain at -145, a level I’m happy to take advantage of on Saturday.

We could see Tarasenko regress a little given his lack of ice time but the way the Panthers have been deploying him has been smart. The shorter shifts have meant he’s been fresher when on the ice and he’s also benefited from Anton Lundell being pushed down the lineup, who has centered his line for the last five or six games.

In short, he’s looked like the Tarasenko of old of late – a player who used to be a threat for five or more shots every game – and with a Stanley Cup in the building on Saturday night I doubt we see much let up from the 32-year-old.

I don’t think looking to Tarasenko to score for the second game in a row is that outlandish an idea, either.

As mentioned above, he’s been far more aggressive with his shot after being moved from the equally trigger-happy Sam Bennett and his anytime goalscorer odds remain in the +400 range on most sportsbooks.

He scored a big goal for them in Game 6 to close out the Rangers and with how effective he’s been in this series he’s a player I would also keep him in mind for any live betting goal scorer bets, should the game go to OT or be tied late. 

Aleksander Barkov Under 2.5 SOG (-140; DraftKings)

We played this prop in Game 2 (and it hit) and even with these shorter odds now attached I still like going back to it for Game 4. It’s been clear from the get-go that Florida’s top line is more concerned with shutting down McDavid and whoever the Oilers top stars happen to be with him when he’s on the ice. That’s meant this Barkov and even some his linemates, like Sam Reinhart, haven’t had as much free reign as they have had in other series to take more chances on the offensive end.

To date, Barkov has attempted just nine shots in this series through three games and hasn’t landed more than two in a game in any of those three starts. If you dive deeper, you could even say Barkov is lucky to have landed five shots given how little he’s shooting – even if he is going for a quality-over-quantity approach.

Regardless, with everything on the line for Florida, I do see this game potentially being tighter and lower scoring than Game 4, making Barkov seem unlikely to start unleashing his shot more than he already has.

The line here has moved from -115 to -140 so you could argue we are buying the top but the stats suggest this line still isn't anywhere near short enough just based on how less aggressive Barkov has been on offense since the series started. 

Same-Game Parlay for Oilers vs. Panthers Game 4 (+4000; bet365)

  • Under 5.5 goals
  • Game goes to OT (Tie after 60 mins)
  • Vladimir Tarasenko Anytime Goal Scorer

This may be the last NHL article of the season so let’s shoot our shot, and end with a fun Same Game Parlay that we could potentially use to land some big profit if we get a close game that goes to OT.

As mentioned above, with this being an elimination game I do expect the game to be pretty tight. Things opened up a little in Game 3 but if either team gets up on Saturday you have to expect the defenses will tighten and the chances will dry up fast. Elimination games have been money to the Under this season as well and the Panthers and Oilers elimination games from Round 2 and 3 (against Boston, New York, Vancouver, and Dallas) all went under 5.5 goals. 

A tight scoring game also gives us a heightened chance at OT and that’s where the big predictions come in and the bigger odds. Florida has played in lots of one-goal games these playoffs and went to OT three times against the Rangers. It’s a big call but locking it in with the under does make some sense. Ultimately, if the game is tied late in the third period teams in this position (on the verge of winning or elimination) will tend to play things safe and play for the extra period.

I already discussed Tarasenko above and with the Panthers' top two lines taking on the task of shutting down the Oilers stars I do think a role player like him will be instrumental for Florida once again (regardless of if they win or lose).

With the Tarasenko goal prop included we also get a negative correlation to the under, which boosts our odds nicely.